Does every recommendation still work when they’re all done together?
Lowe → Gonzales → third base: every branch
Each row runs the same engine on its own 40-man. Wins carry the Outlook’s 80% range; most of that range is shared by every row, so one row’s edge over another is surer than the ranges suggest. No range is shown on a single move’s edge (the +2.6 for the trade, say): Keystone has no per-player projection error split by playing time, so a band there would be invented. Payroll is on one luxury-tax basis; the gap is to the owners’ proposed floor, on their terms (a re-signed contract at the market price those terms imply), next to the payroll on those terms.
| Branch | Wins (80% range) | Playoff odds | 2027 payroll | 40-man | Gonzales | Lowe | Comp pick (net) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79.1 (67–91)−2.6 vs. the plan | 34% | $126.0M$46.4M under the floor ($124.8M on the owners’ terms) | 40Release Henry Davis before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17) | second base | gone | +$8.6M pick | |
| The plan: Lowe leaves; Isaac Paredes at third, Gonzales to second plan | 81.7 (70–94) | 44% | $138.6M$34.0M under the floor ($137.2M on the owners’ terms) | 39Release Henry Davis before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17) | second base | gone | +$8.6M pick |
| 83.5 (71–96)+1.8 vs. the plan | 51% | $160.9M$11.9M under the floor ($159.3M on the owners’ terms) | 40Release Henry Davis before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17)Acquire Isaac Paredes before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17) | bench | second base | none | |
| Brandon Lowe at third base: 0 batters there in 2024–26; the engine rates him from his second base record | 80.8 (69–93)−0.9 vs. the plan | 40% | $148.4M$24.2M under the floor ($147.0M on the owners’ terms) | 40cuts Noah MurdockRelease Henry Davis before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17)Clear Noah Murdock before the Rule 5 filing | second base | third base | none |
| Lowe re-signed at his market price (3 years × $30.8M); Isaac Paredes too Same 2027 roster as Lowe accepting; the contract runs 3 years and costs the pick. | 83.5 (71–96)+1.8 vs. the plan | 51% | $168.5M$8.0M under the floor ($163.2M on the owners’ terms) | 40Release Henry Davis before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17)Acquire Isaac Paredes before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17) | bench | second base | gives up $8.6M |
| Lowe at first base, Ryan O'Hearn to DH, Spencer Horwitz to the bench, Gonzales at second Lowe's first-base rating rests on 483 batters there in 2024–26. | 82.9 (71–95)+1.2 vs. the plan | 48% | $160.9M$11.9M under the floor ($159.3M on the owners’ terms) | 40Release Henry Davis before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17)Acquire Isaac Paredes before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17) | second base | first base | none |
| Keep Lowe, trade Gonzales The return is valued, not named: prospects worth his arbitration years' surplus. | 82.7 (71–95)+1.0 vs. the plan | 48% | $158.6M$13.6M under the floor ($157.6M on the owners’ terms) | 39Release Henry Davis before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17)Acquire Isaac Paredes before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17) | tradedreturn ≈ $17.9M in prospects | second base | none |
- The 2026 club brought back: Yates, Soto and Lowe re-signed, Lowe at second base and Gonzales at third base as in 202681.3
- They leave: the roster as it stands. The depth chart re-sorts: Gonzales to second base and Jared Triolo starts at third base79.0(−2.3)
- In-house moves (add Termarr Johnson, Derek Diamond and Keiner Delgado to the 40-man for Rule 5; non-tender Henry Davis)79.1(+0.1)
- Acquire Isaac Paredes: Isaac Paredes starts at third base and Triolo to the bench81.7(+2.6)
Today's 40-man plus its pending free agents, on the plan's engine, with the 2026 holders of second and third base kept where they played; the rest of the depth chart sorts itself.
Brandon Lowe → 3B / Isaac Paredes → 2B (with Isaac Paredes): −0.88 wins (that alignment: 82.6 wins, 80% range 70–95)
Brandon Lowe → 2B / Nick Gonzales → 3B (no acquisition): −0.15 wins, a toss-up (that alignment: 80.7 wins, 80% range 69–93)
A toss-up is a swap worth under 0.2 wins: a line the plan draws, not one the model measures.
Today’s rules: $13.5M a year. His market estimate ($30.8M a year) is above the ceiling: let him go.
Owners’ proposed terms: $11.5M–$46.6M a year (floor money at full value, or free). His price on those terms ($27.1M) sits between $11.5M (the ceiling at face value, if the floor money has other good uses) and $46.6M (the ceiling if it has none): worth it only if the floor money has no better use. It has one: on this roster Jack Flaherty adds 0.98 wins per $10M of 2027 payroll and Lowe re-signed 0.46, counting the comp pick a re-sign gives up (today's prices; the owners' terms scale both alike). Let him go.
His market (the Free-Agent Board's estimate): $30.8M a year over 3 years (range $21.8M–$47.6M a year, $65M–$143M guaranteed), against a one-year offer of $23.15M. His estimate beats the offer by $7.6M a year and comes with 3 guaranteed years: expected to decline. At the low end of his range ($21.8M a year) the offer pays more for one year, so he could accept.
Extend the offer? If he accepts, he adds 1.78 wins to the plan (Isaac Paredes acquired either way): at $9.0M a win, against $22.4M more 2027 payroll, that is worth −$6.4M under today's rules. If he declines, the pick is worth $8.6M (net of its signing bonus). So extending pays if he declines with probability above 42%. Last winter 12 of 14 deals priced like his cleared the offer (86%, the plan's estimate of his odds of declining): extend the offer. On the owners' proposed terms (a proposal): with the floor money free, extending pays whatever he answers (accepting is worth $14.1M); at face value, extending pays if he declines with probability above 48% (accepting is worth −$8.1M): extend at both ends. If the next CBA abolishes compensation picks, a decline brings nothing back and the offer pays only if his accepting does: accepting is worth −$6.4M under today's rules, so the offer would not pay at any odds of declining.
The offer goes out ≈ Nov 1–5; his answer is due ≈ Nov 11–15. Comp-pick rules follow the current CBA as Keystone reads it, and the CBA that expires Dec 1 could change them.
- Jack Flaherty, mid-tier starter (2 years × $10.8M) 0.98 wins per $10M (+1.0 wins for $10.0M)
- Isaac Paredes by trade (salary plus prospects) 0.90 wins per $10M (+2.6 wins for $12.6M + $16.4M in prospects)
- The Free-Agent Board’s list to the floor (3 signings, at today’s prices) 0.83 wins per $10M (+3.2 wins for $38.2M)
- Jazz Chisholm Jr., third base instead of the trade (4 years × $32.6M) (against the in-house plan) 0.68 wins per $10M (+2.5 wins for $31.9M + $5.8M draft pick (qualifying offer))
- Lowe on the qualifying offer (one year) 0.57 wins per $10M (+1.8 wins for $22.4M + $8.6M comp pick forgone)
- Lowe re-signed (3 years × $30.8M) 0.46 wins per $10M (+1.8 wins for $30.0M + $8.6M comp pick forgone)
The market price of a win: 1.11 wins per $10M ($9.0M a win). None of the uses above clears it at today’s prices.
2027 wins on the plan's engine per $10M: the 2027 payroll change on one luxury-tax basis under today's rules, plus any one-off talent cost (prospects sent, or a draft pick given up). A multi-year deal's later seasons aren't in this figure. Under the owners' proposed terms market prices all scale by the same factor, so the order among signings holds; the qualifying offer is a fixed price. The Free-Agent Board’s list is measured against this plan’s roster.
Lineup and bench
Re-sorted for this combination of outcomes. Numbers are 2027 WAR. Orange = a different player than today at that spot; dashed = little or no MLB time at that spot (under 300 batters there in 2024–26). One season is 6,102 PA; 620 PA go to replacement level (DH 217, 1B 183, C 144).
Endy Rodríguez: Ended 2026 on the 60-day IL (Left hip inflammation). The plan assumes he is ready for spring; that is a medical call we can't see. Who covers: see Catching below.
Termarr Johnson stays in Triple-A until his medicals clear (on the minor-league full-season IL since Aug 18). Cleared, he would take the bench spot from Ronny Simon and change the plan by +0.04 wins (that roster: 81.7, 80% range 70–94): a toss-up, so his health and development decide. The headline gives Termarr Johnson 101 PA as a call-up (+0.17 WAR): it assumes his medicals clear by midseason. If they don't, the plan changes by −0.10 wins, a toss-up.
Pitching staff
Established starters fill the rotation first, listed by pitching rate (WAR per 180 IP), so a better rate can sit above more total WAR; the eight best arms in the bullpen, in the win engine’s innings order (Bullpen Strategy sets their late-inning roles by skill). Numbers are IP and 2027 WAR. One season is 1,436 IP; 236 IP go to replacement level.
- Paul Skenes144 IP · 4.0
- Jared Jones116 IP · 2.3
- Braxton Ashcraft136 IP · 2.6
- Bubba Chandler131 IP · 1.9
- Mitch Keller128 IP · 1.2
- Mason Montgomery60 IP · 1.1
- Carmen Mlodzinski74 IP · 0.9
- Wilber Dotel53 IP · 0.6
- Luke Weaver60 IP · 0.6
- Yohan Ramírez59 IP · 0.5
- Evan Sisk50 IP · 0.4
- Isaac Mattson50 IP · 0.4
- Brandon Eisert52 IP · 0.2
Innings are the role model’s expectation, missed time included. Starters who opened a season first or second in their rotation with a Marcel projection of 160+ IP threw 7 IP more than it predicted, on average (106 pitcher-seasons, 2022–2026, each season predicted by a model that never saw it); 52% of them reached 170 IP. So a top starter’s innings here run a few light, not a full season light; the plan uses the model as fit.
Mitch Keller: Ended 2026 on the 60-day IL (Right arm teres major muscle injury). The plan assumes he is ready for spring; that is a medical call we can't see.
Bubba Chandler: late-season velocity −1.3 mph and arm angle −3.2° against his baseline (last outing Sep 25) (Health & Workload warning (health.json)). If Bubba Chandler opens 2027 on the injured list, the plan changes by −0.51 wins (81.2, 80% range 69–93). How often: 104 of 655 pitcher-seasons without a warning (16%) ended in an arm injured-list placement before May 31 (2024–25 season ends); of the 37 with a late-season velocity drop, 2 (5%): too few cases (2 injuries), so the flag's own rate isn't used. No expected figure is added: that base rate isn't tied to his warning, and his projected innings already include a typical pitcher's missed time. Starter innings: Chandler 131 → 96 IP. No one else on the 40-man picks up starts. 35 starter IP go to replacement level.
The moves, in order
Dated from the offseason calendar (≈ = approximate), with each move’s effect on the 40-man and on the 2027 payroll (luxury-tax basis, the 26-man’s minimum-salary fill included)
- ≈ Oct 21–Nov 17 Non-tender Henry Davis Tender or non-tender, and the third catcher The protections filed Nov 17 need his spot: release him first. −1 40-man · −$734K
- ≈ Oct 21–Nov 5 Re-sign Christian Bethancourt to a minor-league deal: the third catcher, off the 40-man Tender or non-tender, and the third catcher Estimate: outrighted Sep 7, 2026 with major-league time since 2013: he can elect free agency after the season. No 40-man spot or major-league salary unless he is added. If he signs elsewhere, the next options are to re-sign Jose Herrera to a minor-league deal (−$0.1M net) or tender Henry Davis and decide in spring (−$0.4M net); Rafael Flores Jr. and Derek Berg alone are 2 catchers not on an injured list, short of the three the plan needs.
- ≈ Nov 1–5 Extend the $23.15M qualifying offer to Brandon Lowe Qualifying offer: Brandon Lowe His answer is due about Nov 11–15; the plan expects him to decline and sign elsewhere.
- ≈ Nov 1–Dec 1 Acquire Isaac Paredes (HOU) for Jacob Gonzalez (FV 35+) + Jhostynxon Garcia (FV 45) Fix third base After HOU's option call (≈ Nov 1–5), before the CBA expires. −1 40-man · +$12.6M
- ≈ Nov 5 Pending free agents come off the 40-man: Kirby Yates, Gregory Soto, Brandon LoweCounted from today's 40-man; the plan's starting roster already leaves them out. −3 from today’s 40-man
- Nov 17 Add Termarr Johnson (2B, AAA) to the 40-man Rule 5 protection On the minor-league full-season IL since Aug 18; he stays in Triple-A until his medicals clear. Added to the 40-man Nov 17, he would be kept out of club facilities and club-supervised rehab during a lockout, as 40-man players were in 2021–22 (CBA knowledge, not in our data): set his rehab plan before Dec 2. +1 40-man
- Nov 17 Add Derek Diamond (SIRP, AAA) to the 40-man Rule 5 protection +1 40-man
- Nov 17 Add Keiner Delgado (SS, AA) to the 40-man Rule 5 protection +1 40-man
- Once the moves land Jared Triolo: shortstop in 2026 → the benchIsaac Paredes starts at third base, Triolo's spot on today's roster.
- Once the moves land Spencer Horwitz: first base in 2026 → DHRyan O'Hearn takes first base; a toss-up with Ryan O'Hearn → DH / Spencer Horwitz → 1B (−0.17 W).
- Once the moves land Nick Gonzales: third base in 2026 → second baseBrandon Lowe played second base in 2026 and leaves; Isaac Paredes takes third base.
The CBA expires Dec 1 and a lockout is expected ≈ Dec 2; transactions freeze then, so every move above has to land before it.
Checks
Run on every scenario at every build
- One starter at every position
- 40-man: 39 of 40
- 40-man at each deadline, in transaction order (tightest case): at most 40; Release Henry Davis before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17); the non-tender deadline (Nov 20) is only the latest date
- 2 catchers on the 26-man; 4 available, 3 not on an injured list today (Rafael Flores Jr., Derek Berg (non-roster), Christian Bethancourt (non-roster)); Endy Rodríguez ended 2026 on the 60-day IL (11 of 46 hitters who did that in 2024 or 2025 opened the next season on the IL); 144 PA at catcher left to replacement level on the 40-man
- 26-man: 13 hitters, 13 pitchers
- Playing time: 6,102 PA and 1,436 IP, one season; 620 PA and 236 IP left to replacement level
- Shortstop cover on the bench: Jared Triolo. Konnor Griffin projects 369 of 678 PA at shortstop. The rest: Jared Triolo 309 PA, 0 PA at replacement level
- Jake Mangum gets 476 PA off the bench (RF 256, CF 220), more than 6 of the nine starters, though the Hitting Lab says to limit his exposure against both hands: the starters' projected PA at CF, RF leave him that time. A better bat for that share is a free-agent question (see the Free-Agent Board)
- Health, all 26 on the 26-man and the protected prospects: 4 warnings (Endy Rodríguez, Bubba Chandler, Mitch Keller, Termarr Johnson); 18 more with injured-list history since March 2025
- Endy Rodríguez (bench, catcher): on the injured list since Aug 10 (moved to the 60-day IL Sep 1) (Left hip inflammation) MLB transactions (injured list today)
- Bubba Chandler (rotation #4): late-season velocity −1.3 mph and arm angle −3.2° against his baseline (last outing Sep 25) Health & Workload warning (health.json)
- Mitch Keller (rotation #5): on the 60-day IL since Aug 3 (Right arm teres major muscle injury) MLB transactions (injured list today)
- Termarr Johnson (protected, in the minors): on the minor-league injured list since Aug 9 (moved to the full-season IL Aug 18) MLB transactions (injured list today)
Injured-list history since March 2025, no warning (18)
- Rafael Flores Jr. (starter, C): 1 injured-list stint since March 2025: Jul 24–Aug 1 (7-day IL, concussion)
- Ryan O'Hearn (starter, 1B): 2 injured-list stints since March 2025: Aug 1–Sep 11 (10-day IL, left quad strain); May 17–May 31 (10-day IL, right quad muscle strain)
- Nick Gonzales (starter, 2B): 1 injured-list stint since March 2025, 1 on the 60-day list: Mar 28, 2025–Jun 3, 2025 (60-day IL, non-displaced left ankle fracture)
- Isaac Paredes (starter, 3B): 1 injured-list stint since March 2025, 1 on the 60-day list: Jul 20, 2025–Sep 19, 2025 (60-day IL, right hamstring strain)
- Konnor Griffin (starter, SS): 2 injured-list stints since March 2025, 1 on the 60-day list: Jul 7–Sep 4 (60-day IL, left ring finger sagittal band injury); May 31–Jun 26 (10-day IL, right elbow strain)
- Oneil Cruz (starter, CF): 2 injured-list stints since March 2025, 1 on the 60-day list: Jun 10–Aug 17 (60-day IL, left hand fourth and fifth metacarpal non-displaced fractures); Aug 13, 2025–Aug 26, 2025 (7-day IL, concussion)
- Esmerlyn Valdez (starter, RF): 1 injured-list stint since March 2025: Sep 12–Sep 28 (10-day IL, left hamstring strain)
- Spencer Horwitz (starter, DH): 2 injured-list stints since March 2025: Jun 25–Aug 2 (10-day IL, left hamstring strain); Mar 27, 2025–May 17, 2025 (10-day IL, right wrist surgery)
- Jake Mangum (bench): 2 injured-list stints since March 2025: May 8–May 17 (10-day IL, left hamstring strain); Apr 24, 2025–May 30, 2025 (10-day IL, left groin strain)
- Jared Triolo (bench): 2 injured-list stints since March 2025: Apr 5–May 2 (10-day IL, right knee patellar tendon injury); Apr 7, 2025–Apr 16, 2025 (10-day IL, lumbar spine strain)
- Ronny Simon (bench): 1 injured-list stint since March 2025, 1 on the 60-day list: Aug 30, 2025–Nov 6, 2025 (60-day IL, dislocated left shoulder)
- Jared Jones (rotation #2): 2 injured-list stints since March 2025, 2 on the 60-day list: Feb 11–May 29 (60-day IL); Mar 27, 2025–Nov 6, 2025 (60-day IL, right elbow UCL sprain)
- Braxton Ashcraft (rotation #3): 1 injured-list stint since March 2025: Sep 10–Sep 28 (15-day IL, right arm discomfort)
- Wilber Dotel (bullpen): 1 injured-list stint since March 2025: Jun 13–Jul 20 (15-day IL, right lat muscle strain)
- Luke Weaver (bullpen): 1 injured-list stint since March 2025: Jun 3, 2025–Jun 20, 2025 (15-day IL, left hamstring strain)
- Evan Sisk (bullpen): 1 injured-list stint since March 2025: Jul 4–Aug 5 (15-day IL, left elbow inflammation)
- Isaac Mattson (bullpen): 1 injured-list stint since March 2025: Sep 8–Sep 28 (15-day IL, right hip impingement)
- Derek Diamond (protected, in the minors): 2 injured-list stints since March 2025, 1 on the 60-day list: Apr 2–May 23 (7-day IL); May 1, 2025–Sep 2, 2025 (60-day IL)
- Option years: everyone the plan keeps off the 26-man has an option year left (estimate); unknown for Lake Bachar
- 2027 payroll ≈ $139M (luxury-tax basis); on the owners' proposed terms $137M, $34M under their floor
- All 9 briefs agree with this plan (0 conflicts)
Toss-up Ryan O'Hearn → DH / Spencer Horwitz → 1B (−0.17 wins; that alignment: 81.5 wins, 80% range 69–94)
A toss-up is a swap worth under 0.2 wins: a line the plan draws, not one the model measures. The plan doesn’t act on it.
Third base: every candidate added to this roster
Wins over the in-house plan once the depth chart re-sorts (prospects sent away leave the roster too). The price is the cheapest package of Pittsburgh prospects worth his surplus value, or half his 2027 value if more, plus 10%, with the top three protected; a package that fits both clubs’ depth clearly better may cost up to 10% over the ask (marked “fit”, with its difference from the rule’s default package).
Pittsburgh's qualifying offer and HOU's option call fall in the same window (≈ Nov 1–5); Lowe answers about Nov 11–15. Isaac Paredes adds +2.6 wins if Lowe leaves and +2.6 if he stays, so the trade needn't wait for his answer; it must close before the CBA expires.
Health: Injured-list stints since March 2025: Jul 20, 2025–Sep 19, 2025 (60-day IL, right hamstring strain). In 2026: 659 MLB plate appearances, no injured-list stint. The route rule bars only an unhealthy 2026, so the earlier 60-day stint is a medical flag for his physical, not a bar.
Contract: 1 yr, $9.35M (2026), 2027 club option; converts to mutual option with top 10 MVP finish. The $13.35M club option is HOU’s call, due ≈ Nov 1–5. If HOU declines it, he has about 5 years, 160 days of service, under six: he stays under HOU's control through arbitration and reaches free agency only if non-tendered (≈ Nov 20). Keystone's reading of the current CBA; our data can't confirm it.
Check: RosterResource notes the option “converts to mutual option with top 10 MVP finish”. The 2026 MVP vote isn't in our data: confirm the option is still HOU's alone before counting on the trade.
Package: Jacob Gonzalez (FV 35+, $3.0M, on the 40-man) + Jhostynxon Garcia (FV 45, $13.4M, on the 40-man), $16.4M against a $16.0M ask. A toss-up: 89 other packages of two or fewer players come within 5% of the ask (44 of them meet it), such as Jason DeCaro + Hunter Barco ($16.1M). The values aren’t precise enough to choose between them; the fit with both clubs’ depth picks this one. 40-man effect of the trade: −1.
Why these prospects: the trade fit, +0.25 for this package against Pittsburgh as it stands. Against the rule’s default package (Jason DeCaro + Hunter Barco, $16.1M) it costs $0.4M more, 3% over the ask, within the 10% cap, because it suits both clubs’ depth better(HOU’s side +0.26, Pittsburgh’s +0.08):
- Jacob Gonzalez (SS, FV 35+, arrives 2027): Houston’s shortstop need 0.59 over 2027–29 (covered 2027, thin 2028–29), the other clubs 0.28; Pittsburgh’s shortstop: no surplus (other clubs 0.02), need 0.07 (below the bar 2027–28, covered 2029; other clubs 0.28, only need above theirs counts), −0.02 net. Fit +0.18.
- Jhostynxon Garcia (CF, FV 45, arrives 2027): Houston’s center field need 0.64 over 2027–29 (thin 2027–29), the other clubs 0.17; Pittsburgh’s center field: surplus 0.17 (other clubs 0.04), need 0.34 (below the bar 2027, covered 2028, thin 2029; other clubs 0.17, only need above theirs counts), −0.04 net. Fit +0.27.
Package fit +0.25, value-weighted: +0.44 from Houston’s needs and −0.04 from Pittsburgh’s depth, each net of the other clubs. Chosen for fit over the rule’s default package, Jason DeCaro + Hunter Barco ($16.1M, fit +0.06): $0.4M more, 3% over the $16.0M ask (the cap is 10%), for 0.19 more fit (the margin is 0.15). Each club’s side against the default: Houston’s +0.18 → +0.44 (+0.26), Pittsburgh’s −0.12 → −0.04 (+0.08); a switch needs neither side lower and one up 0.25 or more. HOU’s depth · Pittsburgh’s
Park: −3.6 runs per 600 PA at PNC against an average park, the part his park-adjusted WAR leaves out (−5.2 against the parks he played in: how his stat line would change); he pulls a lot of balls in the air, and PNC’s home-run index for right-handed hitters is 70 (100 = average). Over his 562 projected PA that is −3.4 runs, −0.35 wins, not counted in the wins; with every hitter’s park fit counted on both rosters, the trade’s edge over the in-house plan moves from +2.60 to +2.26 wins. PNC Park Fit →
Glove: Keystone’s zone model has him at −20.7 outs above expected at third in 2026 (−6.4 per 100 balls; +4.1 in 2024, −4.2 in 2025), about the same rate as the hole he would fill: Pittsburgh’s third basemen were −27.5 in 2026 (−6.4 per 100, 30th of 30). The engine’s three-season rating, which the wins use, is −1.4 runs a season; the zone figure isn’t counted.
Surplus of the trade (his projected WAR against his salary and the $16.4M in prospects): −$1.9M under today’s rules; on the owners’ proposed terms (a proposal), −$5.2M at face value to $8.1M with the floor money free (positive while a below-floor dollar costs the club less than 61% of its face value: a toss-up on those terms).
Isaac Paredes’s control ends after 2027. In-house successor: Duce Gourson (AAA, FV 45, ETA 2027), 1.5 WAR per 600 PA at third today.
Others: Jared Triolo 0.9 · Murf Gray 0.8 (ETA 2029) · Nick Yorke 0.6 · Matt King 0.5
Second base: Nick Gonzales, arbitration ≈ $5.3M, 1.3 WAR projected.
Under today's CBA, a qualifying offer after 2027 could bring Pittsburgh a compensation pick if Isaac Paredes then signs elsewhere: about $5.2M net of its bonus if he signs for under $50M, $8.6M if for more (a player can get only one offer in his career, and whether he has had one isn't in our data). The CBA that expires Dec 1 could change that rule, so the pick isn't counted in the wins or the trade's surplus.
The plan’s 40-man in 2028, before any 2028 move: 37 of its 39 still under club control (Luke Weaver, Ryan O'Hearn’s control ends after 2027); all five of the 2027 rotation (Skenes, Jones, Ashcraft, Chandler, Keller) are still under control. 18 with no contract row are taken as pre-arbitration.
2028 payroll on the plan’s roster: $138.1M under today’s rules; $133.2M on the owners’ proposed terms, $38.0M under their $171.2M floor.
| Player | Fits the rule? | Wins added | 2027 salary | What Pittsburgh sends | Control | 3B / 2B in the plan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Paredes HOU · bat-first medicaloption | Yes: the pick (one-year bridge) | +2.6 | $13.3M | Jacob Gonzalez (35+) + Jhostynxon Garcia (45)fit +$361K | 2027 | Isaac Paredes / Nick Gonzales |
| Ezequiel Duran TEX · glove-first | Yes | +1.6 | $6.7M | Easton Carmichael (40) + Wyatt Sanford (45+)fit +$1.1M | 2028 | Ezequiel Duran / Nick Gonzales |
| Ernie Clement TOR · glove-first | Yes | +0.8 | $4.9M | Hunter Barco (45) | 2028 | Ernie Clement / Nick Gonzales |
| Nick Loftin KC · glove-first | Yes | +0.5 | $780K | Alex Overbay (none yet, 2026 #228 pick) + Hunter Barco (45) | 2030 | Nick Loftin / Nick Gonzales |
If the trade falls through, the best free agents at third (no prospects; his market estimate, added to the in-house plan). Surplus is his projected WAR against the contract and any draft pick, under today’s rules, then on the owners’ proposed terms (a proposal) at face value and with the floor money free:
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. +2.5 wins for 4 yr × $32.6M, covers 2028; likely qualifying offer: signing him costs a draft pick worth ≈ $5.8M; surplus −$33.0M today; owners’ terms −$29.7M at face value to $50.2M with the floor money free (positive while a below-floor dollar costs the club less than 63% of its face value: a toss-up on those terms)
- Edmundo Sosa +0.8 wins for 2 yr × $8.5M, covers 2028; surplus $3.3M today; owners’ terms $2.9M at face value to $17.3M with the floor money free
- Eugenio Suárez +0.7 wins for 2 yr × $6.7M, covers 2028; surplus −$1.8M today; owners’ terms −$1.6M at face value to $9.7M with the floor money free (positive while a below-floor dollar costs the club less than 86% of its face value: a toss-up on those terms)
- Alec Bohm +0.6 wins for 2 yr × $5.5M, covers 2028; surplus $3.8M today; owners’ terms $3.3M at face value to $12.7M with the floor money free
The trade for comparison: Isaac Paredes +2.6 wins for one year; surplus −$1.9M today; owners’ terms −$5.2M at face value to $8.1M with the floor money free (positive while a below-floor dollar costs the club less than 61% of its face value: a toss-up on those terms). The route rule ranks on 2027 wins, so the trade comes first.
Free agency at second base instead (Gonzales stays at third, where he played in 2026; no trade, so the prospects stay; on the trade’s $15M salary line and two-year deals): Mauricio Dubón 2 yr × $14.4M, +0.4 wins over the in-house plan (79.5, −2.2 against the trade); Edmundo Sosa 2 yr × $8.5M, +0.1 wins over the in-house plan (79.2, −2.4 against the trade); Gleyber Torres 2 yr × $7.5M, +0.1 wins over the in-house plan (79.2, −2.5 against the trade).
Who gets qualifying offers isn’t known until ≈ Nov 1–5.
Best affordable acquisition a club would plausibly trade: he plays third in the plan, 2027 salary ≤ $15M, talent cost ≤ $30M, ≥ 0.5 wins over the in-house plan, a healthy 2026 (100+ MLB plate appearances, not on the 60-day IL; a 60-day stint in 2025 is shown as a medical flag, not a bar), and not a player with no-trade rights, a star, just signed or extended, a young core player, a contender’s regular, or someone Pittsburgh traded away in the last two years. The pick adds the most 2027 wins; within 0.3 wins, the longer control wins the tie. In-house plan: 79.1 wins.
Mitch Keller: keep, trade, or add a starter
Each branch on the recommended roster. Starter innings come before any hook plan; the Bullpen page sets how deep each starter goes.
| Branch | Wins (80% range) | Playoff odds | 2027 payroll | 40-man | Rotation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keep Keller (the plan) | 81.7 (70–94) | 44% | $138.6M$34.0M under the floor ($137.2M on the owners’ terms) | 39Release Henry Davis before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17) | Skenes 144 · Jones 116 · Ashcraft 136 · Chandler 131 · Keller 128176 starter IP left to replacement level |
| Trade Keller: Pittsburgh keeps half of each remaining season, no return valued | 81.0 (69–93)−0.7 vs. the plan | 41% | $131.6M$40.7M under the floor ($130.5M on the owners’ terms) | 38Release Henry Davis before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17) | Skenes 144 · Jones 116 · Ashcraft 136 · Chandler 131 · Mlodzinski 105199 starter IP left to replacement level |
| Keep Keller and sign Jack Flaherty (DET): as the engine sets the rotationPicking them up: Flaherty 0 → 86 IP. 86 fewer starter IP go to replacement level.The salary lock costs 0.1 wins against the five best rates (next row): the engine keeps a starter paid $15M+ in 2027 in the rotation, and the plan keeps that rule. | 82.7 (71–95)+1.0 vs. the plan | 47% | $148.6M$25.6M under the floor ($145.6M on the owners’ terms) | 40Release Henry Davis before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17)Acquire Isaac Paredes before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17) | Skenes 144 · Jones 116 · Ashcraft 136 · Chandler 131 · Keller 128next: Jack Flaherty 86 IP as a starter91 starter IP left to replacement level |
| Keep Keller and sign Jack Flaherty: the five best rates start, Keller to the bullpenStarter innings: Keller 128 → 87 IP. Picking them up: Flaherty 0 → 120 IP. 79 fewer starter IP go to replacement level. | 82.8 (71–95)+1.1 vs. the plan | 48% | $148.6M$25.6M under the floor ($145.6M on the owners’ terms) | 40Release Henry Davis before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17)Acquire Isaac Paredes before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17) | Skenes 144 · Jones 116 · Ashcraft 136 · Chandler 131 · Flaherty 121next: Mitch Keller 87 IP as a starter98 starter IP left to replacement level |
| Keller opens 2027 on the injured listStarter innings: Keller 128 → 94 IP. No one else on the 40-man picks up starts. 35 starter IP go to replacement level. | 81.4 (69–93)−0.3 vs. the plan | 42% | $138.6M$34.0M under the floor ($137.2M on the owners’ terms) | 39Release Henry Davis before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17) | Skenes 144 · Jones 116 · Ashcraft 136 · Chandler 131 · Keller 94211 starter IP left to replacement level |
| Keller and Jared Jones both miss the seasonStarter innings: Keller 128 → 0 IP, Jones 116 → 0 IP. Picking them up: Mlodzinski 0 → 105 IP, Harrington 0 → 68 IP. 70 starter IP go to replacement level. Both still paid; on the 60-day IL they come off the 40-man count. | 78.7 (67–91)−2.9 vs. the plan | 32% | $138.6M$34.0M under the floor ($137.2M on the owners’ terms) | 37both on the 60-day ILRelease Henry Davis before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17) | Skenes 144 · Ashcraft 136 · Chandler 131 · Mlodzinski 105 · Harrington 69246 starter IP left to replacement level |
Keep him for now, medicals first; revisit once he is cleared. Under today's rules the trade saves $13.3M of payroll in 2027 dollars and costs 0.68 wins in 2027 (the plan's engine) and about 0.56 in 2028 (the same 50% share of his projected WAR), worth $10.9M at the price of a win: net +$2.4M for trading, more than the toss-up line ($1.8M). A club gains from the terms only if his medicals are clean, so the trade waits for his medicals.
Spending the floor money either way (the Free-Agent Board’s list measured on each branch, on the owners’ proposed terms): keep 84.8 wins, trade 85.0 wins, a toss-up; before any signing, the trade also leaves the 40-man at 38 of 40.
Pittsburgh keeps half of each remaining season: $7.7M a year of his $15.4M luxury-tax hit in 2027, 2028. No player or prospect comes back in the model.
$6.9M in 2027, $6.9M in 2028 on the luxury-tax basis: $13.3M in 2027 dollars under today’s rules, $0–$12.9M on the owners’ proposed terms (below their floor the club spends the money anyway).
A club taking him on these terms gets $3.1M of surplus value under today's rules if he is healthy, but −$0.2M if he opens on the injured list: the terms hold only if his medicals are clean; otherwise expect to add about $0.2M in value. On the owners’ proposed terms at face value (the acquiring club’s payroll against the floor isn’t modelled): $502K healthy, −$2.4M if he opens on the injured list.
Catching: the third catcher
Who catches if Endy Rodríguez isn’t ready. Each option runs the plan’s engine on today’s roster plus the Rule 5 adds; expected wins weigh the ready and opening-on-the-IL branches by how often that happens; money under both CBA lenses.
Endy Rodríguez and Rafael Flores Jr. split the catching: Endy Rodríguez 268 PA at catcher (289 in all), Rafael Flores Jr. 266 PA at catcher. Available: Endy Rodríguez (60-day IL), Rafael Flores Jr., Derek Berg (non-roster), Christian Bethancourt (non-roster): 4 in all, 3 not on an injured list today.
Endy Rodríguez: on the 60-day IL (left hip inflammation), 4 injured-list stints since March 2025. Of 46 hitters who ended 2024 or 2025 on a 60-day IL, 11 opened the next season on the IL (24%; catchers 2 of 6): the weight on the branch where he opens there.
The plan’s headline counts the 40-man only: 81.7 wins with Endy Rodríguez ready.As the engine rates Derek Berg and Christian Bethancourt, their call-up time adds +0.29 wins even with everyone ready (82.0): opening on the IL 81.9 (−0.09); out for the season 81.6 (−0.42), with Derek Berg 227 PA and Christian Bethancourt 152 PA covering.If they are only replacement level: ready 81.7; opening on the IL 81.4 (−0.32); out for the season 80.8 (−0.92).
5 options sit within 0.2 wins' worth ($1.8M) of the best under today's rules; the pick is the best of them on value and needs no 40-man spot: re-sign Christian Bethancourt to a minor-league deal (non-roster). Tendering Henry Davis is worth −$0.8M under today's rules; on the owners' proposed terms +$2.6M with the floor money free and −$0.7M at face value. If the Triple-A catchers are only replacement level, the best is to sign Gary Sánchez: 1 yr × $2.67M (+$0.3M), still inside the line. On the owners' proposed terms (a proposal): with the floor money free the best is to tender Henry Davis and keep him as the third catcher (+$2.6M), $2.2M more than the pick: outside the line; at face value the pick is the best (+$0.4M). The call flips between the two ends, so on those terms it turns on the floor money's other uses: tendering Davis buys 0.10 wins per $10M of 2027 payroll and Jack Flaherty 0.98 (today's prices), so the floor money has better uses and the pick holds.
Henry Davis caught 2,797 of Paul Skenes's 2,890 pitches in 2026 (97%); the plan's catchers caught 0 (Flores Jr.), 93 (Rodríguez), 0 (Berg), 0 (Bethancourt). The third-catcher call ends that pairing; it isn't counted in the wins.
Henry Davis caught 1,215 of Braxton Ashcraft's 2,413 pitches in 2026 (50%); the plan's catchers caught 394 (Flores Jr.), 459 (Rodríguez), 0 (Berg), 0 (Bethancourt). The third-catcher call ends that pairing; it isn't counted in the wins.
Henry Davis: $1.51M in arbitration; option years left (estimate): 2. His later arbitration seasons, valued as options the club can drop each winter: $0.6M under today’s rules, $2.5M on the owners’ proposed terms with the floor money free and $0.5M at face value (the plan’s old point estimate counted $0.0M).
| Option | 40-man spot | Wins added, expected | If he’s out all year | Net value, today’s rules | Owners’ terms |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-tender Henry Davis; Derek Berg (Triple-A, under contract) is the next catcher upNon-roster (under contract) | noneone for a call-up while Endy Rodríguez is out | 0.000.00 if the Triple-A catchers are replacement level | 0.00 | −$0.1Mcost $0.06M (a call-up’s minimum if Endy Rodríguez opens on the IL) | $0.0M / −$0.1Mfloor money free / at face value |
| Tender Henry Davis and keep him as the third catcherTender | +1 | +0.02+0.07 if the Triple-A catchers are replacement level | +0.08 | −$0.8Mcost $1.51M; later years $0.6M | +$2.6M / −$0.7Mfloor money free / at face value |
| Tender Henry Davis, decide in spring (today's rules: release him either way, owing termination pay; owners' terms with the floor money free: keep him either way)Tender, decide in spring | +1 | 0.00+0.07 if the Triple-A catchers are replacement level | +0.08 | −$0.4Mcost $0.43M | +$2.6M / −$0.4Mfloor money free / at face value |
| Non-tender Henry Davis; re-sign Christian Bethancourt to a minor-league deal (non-roster)the pickMinor-league deal: likely a minor-league free agent, so re-sign him first | noneone for a call-up while Endy Rodríguez is out | +0.060.00 if the Triple-A catchers are replacement level | +0.16 | +$0.5Mcost $0.06M (a call-up’s minimum if Endy Rodríguez opens on the IL) | +$0.4M / +$0.4Mfloor money free / at face value |
| Non-tender Henry Davis; re-sign Jose Herrera to a minor-league deal (non-roster)Minor-league deal | noneone for a call-up while Endy Rodríguez is out | 0.000.00 if the Triple-A catchers are replacement level | 0.00 | −$0.1Mcost $0.06M (a call-up’s minimum if Endy Rodríguez opens on the IL) | $0.0M / −$0.1Mfloor money free / at face value |
| Non-tender Henry Davis; sign Gary Sánchez: 1 yr × $2.67MFree agent | +1 | +0.10+0.33 if the Triple-A catchers are replacement level | +0.36 | −$1.7Mcost $2.67M | +$0.8M / −$1.5Mfloor money free / at face value |
| Non-tender Henry Davis; sign Austin Hedges: 1 yr × $4.23MFree agent | +1 | +0.06+0.21 if the Triple-A catchers are replacement level | +0.20 | −$3.7Mcost $4.23M | +$0.5M / −$3.2Mfloor money free / at face value |
| Non-tender Henry Davis; sign Jake Rogers: 1 yr × $2.61MFree agent | +1 | +0.05+0.18 if the Triple-A catchers are replacement level | +0.17 | −$2.2Mcost $2.61M | +$0.4M / −$1.9Mfloor money free / at face value |
Non-roster catchers at Triple-A: Derek Berg: 397 PA in 2026 (levels combined), .314 OBP / .393 SLG; no major-league catching; under contract for 2027; the engine rates him from Triple-A contact quality or a grade cap. Christian Bethancourt: 266 PA in 2026 (levels combined), .307 OBP / .466 SLG; 1,674 batters caught in the majors in 2024–26; likely a minor-league free agent; the engine rates him from Triple-A contact quality or a grade cap. Cameron Barstad: 210 PA in 2026 (levels combined), .330 OBP / .345 SLG; no major-league catching; likely a minor-league free agent; the engine rates him from Triple-A contact quality or a grade cap. Jose Herrera: 155 PA in 2026 (levels combined), .344 OBP / .321 SLG; 3,347 batters caught in the majors in 2024–26; contract term unknown.
Net value = expected wins × $9.0M a win, minus the cost, plus the later arbitration seasons valued as options. Within 0.2 wins’ worth ($1.8M) of the best, options are a toss-up: among them the plan takes the one that ties up the least (40-man spots, then guaranteed money), and among those that tie up the same, the best on value, which here is also the best overall. An arbitration salary isn't guaranteed until Opening Day: a player released in spring is owed 30 days' pay, or 45 days' late in camp (45 of the 186-day 2026 season, the figure used here). Keystone's reading of the CBA's termination-pay rule; our data can't confirm it, and the next CBA could change it.
Each option runs the plan's engine on today's roster plus the Rule 5 adds, one season of team playing time. Branches: everyone ready; Endy Rodríguez opening on the IL (the role model's opening-IL playing time); out for the season (a stress row). Expected wins weigh the first two by how often a hitter who ends a season on a 60-day IL opens the next one there. Values at money.DPW; costs under each CBA lens (money.cost). If Endy Rodríguez opens on the IL he misses about 33% of his playing time (the role model's opening-IL plate appearances); an option that adds no 40-man catcher then calls one up from off the 40-man, who needs a 40-man spot and the major-league minimum while he is up, so it is charged that minimum in that branch. The plan's headline wins count the 40-man only: a non-roster catcher's call-up time is valued here, not there.
Rule 5 and the 40-man
Protection is filed Nov 17. 54 players in the organization are eligible and off the 40-man, 33 of them at Double-A or Triple-A; 15 likely minor-league free agents are left out of the table (listed below it). Measured on the recommended plan’s 40-man (39 of 40 after every move). The protected players and the closest calls:
| Player | Pick risk | Long-term value | Expected loss | Today’s rules | Owners’ floor | If a lockout cancels the draft |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Termarr Johnson 2B · AAA · FV 45protectWhy: pick risk 0.3 or more, or FV 50+.on the minor-league full-season IL since Aug 18; he stays in Triple-A until his medicals clear. Added to the 40-man Nov 17, he would be kept out of club facilities and club-supervised rehab during a lockout, as 40-man players were in 2021–22 (CBA knowledge, not in our data): set his rehab plan before Dec 2 | 0.53 | 1.62 | 0.85 | Protectfills a spot the plan would otherwise leave open (38 of 40 without him), so no one is cut: it pays at any pick risk; the spot’s other uses this winter aren’t priced | Protectthe Free-Agent Board’s list to the floor makes 2 cuts, one fewer without him, so his spot costs Lake Bachar (0.11): pays above a 0.07 pick risk | Today’s rules: it costs no one, so it pays whatever the odds the major-league phase is heldOwners’ floor: pays only if the phase is held, at 13% odds or better |
| Derek Diamond SIRP · AAA · FV 40protectWhy: pick risk 0.3 or more, or FV 50+. | 0.46 | 0.40 | 0.18 | Protectfills a spot the plan would otherwise leave open (38 of 40 without him), so no one is cut: it pays at any pick risk; the spot’s other uses this winter aren’t priced | Protectthe Free-Agent Board’s list to the floor makes 2 cuts, one fewer without him, so his spot costs Lake Bachar (0.11): pays above a 0.27 pick risk | Today’s rules: it costs no one, so it pays whatever the odds the major-league phase is heldOwners’ floor: pays only if the phase is held, at 60% odds or better |
| Keiner Delgado SS · AA · FV 40protectWhy: expected loss above what his 40-man spot costs under today's rules (the marginal-cost pass).at AA: below Triple-A | 0.25 | 0.59 | 0.15 | Protectfills a spot the plan would otherwise leave open (38 of 40 without him), so no one is cut: it pays at any pick risk; the spot’s other uses this winter aren’t priced | Protectthe Free-Agent Board’s list to the floor makes 2 cuts, one fewer without him, so his spot costs Lake Bachar (0.11): pays above a 0.19 pick risk | Today’s rules: it costs no one, so it pays whatever the odds the major-league phase is heldOwners’ floor: pays only if the phase is held, at 74% odds or better |
| Jean Cabrera SP · AA · FV 45every club passed on him this year | 0.09 | 1.02 | 0.10 | Exposea further protection would fill an open spot and cost no one; the plan protects at most 3+0.07 wins in 2027 if added | Exposethe Free-Agent Board’s list to the floor makes 2 cuts; protecting him makes one more, so his spot would cost Tyler Callihan (0.17): pays above a 0.17 pick risk | Today’s rules: it costs no one, so it pays whatever the odds the major-league phase is heldOwners’ floor: doesn’t pay even if the phase is held |
| Kyler Fedko RF · AAA · FV 40on the full-season ILevery club passed on him this year | 0.09 | 0.60 | 0.05 | Exposea further protection would fill an open spot and cost no one; the plan protects at most 3+0.06 wins in 2027 if added | Exposethe Free-Agent Board’s list to the floor makes 2 cuts; protecting him makes one more, so his spot would cost Tyler Callihan (0.17): pays above a 0.29 pick risk | Today’s rules: it costs no one, so it pays whatever the odds the major-league phase is heldOwners’ floor: doesn’t pay even if the phase is held |
| Mitch Jebb OF · AAA | 0.17 | 0.21 | 0.04 | Exposea further protection would fill an open spot and cost no one; the plan protects at most 3+0.11 wins in 2027 if added | Exposethe Free-Agent Board’s list to the floor makes 2 cuts; protecting him makes one more, so his spot would cost Tyler Callihan (0.17): pays above a 0.80 pick risk | Today’s rules: it costs no one, so it pays whatever the odds the major-league phase is heldOwners’ floor: doesn’t pay even if the phase is held |
Cy Nielson, pick risk 0.23. Pick risk is ordered, not calibrated.
Worth a 40-man spot for 2027?Mitch Jebb: +0.11 wins on the plan’s roster, a toss-up, so not added; his CF rating comes from his listed position, with no tracked time there; 60-day IL Apr 28–Jul 24 in 2026.
Jean Cabrera: +0.07 wins on the plan’s roster, a toss-up, so not added.
Kyler Fedko: +0.06 wins on the plan’s roster, a toss-up, so not added; his LF rating comes from his listed position, with no tracked time there; full-season IL Aug 3–still on it in 2026.
- Oct 21: Today: 41 listed; 2 on the 60-day IL don't count yet39
- Nov 5 (≈): 60-day IL players count again (2); pending free agents come off (3)38
- before Nov 17: Release Henry Davis early, so the protections fit37
- Nov 17: Rule 5 protection filed: Add Termarr Johnson (2B, AAA) to the 40-man; Add Derek Diamond (SIRP, AAA) to the 40-man; Add Keiner Delgado (SS, AA) to the 40-man40
- by Dec 1 (≈): Acquire Isaac Paredes (HOU) for Jacob Gonzalez (FV 35+) + Jhostynxon Garcia (FV 45) (tightest case: after the filing)39
Release Henry Davis before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17); the non-tender deadline (Nov 20) is only the latest date.
If a lockout starts Dec 2 and cancels the Rule 5 draft's major-league phase, as the 2021–22 lockout did, a protection filed Nov 17 buys nothing this winter, and 40-man players were kept out of club facilities during that lockout (CBA knowledge; our data can't confirm either). The filing comes before anyone knows.
Protect a player whose pick risk is 0.3 or more, or graded FV 50+, at most three; never one every club passed on this year. While fewer than three are protected, also protect the eligible player whose expected loss tops what his 40-man spot costs under today's rules (nothing while the plan's 40-man has an open spot, else the next player in the cut order). Risk is ordered, not calibrated. Eligibility from the CBA rule (draft or signing date and age; keystone_models.org) for the whole organization. Long-term value is the 40-man cut key: call-up value plus prospect value or later seasons of club control (valued as options on his projection), whichever is larger, ÷ $10M. Expected loss = pick risk × long-term value. Each Triple-A or Double-A eligible player is also added to the plan's 40-man to measure what he adds in 2027.Likely minor-league free agents before the draft, left out of the table: Beau Burrows (RHP, AAA), CD Pelham (LHP, AAA), Cameron Barstad (C, AAA), Christian Bethancourt (C, AAA), Cristhian Tortosa (SIRP, AAA), Dominic Pipkin (RHP, AA), Enmanuel Valdez (1B, AAA), Grae Kessinger (3B, AAA), Jarod Bayless (RHP, AA), Joel Ibarra (RHP, FCL), Joshua Palacios (CF, AAA), Noah Davis (RHP, AAA), Robert Hassell III (CF, AAA), Ryan Harbin (RHP, AAA), Ryan McCarty (1B, AA).
Next step: free agency (after the CBA)
This combination stops at $138.6M under today’s rules; on the owners’ proposed terms $137.2M, $34.0M under their $171.2M floor. The Free-Agent Board’s list for the money to that floor, measured against this roster with its second and third basemen kept in place. Prices are on the owners’ proposed terms (the floor is theirs), with today’s market estimate beside them. Each row’s wins are measured after the signings above it.
The call Don't sign the list before Dec 1 at today's prices. Under today's rules none of it clears the market price of a win (0.83 wins per $10M against 1.11), and the three would cost $38.2M a year, $4.1M over the gap. No other use the plan measures clears it either: the best use not already in the plan, Jack Flaherty, mid-tier starter, buys 0.98 wins per $10M. If the new CBA sets the owners' floor, spend the $34.0M gap on short deals then: on their terms Jake Bauers, Jack Flaherty and Alex Vesia cost $33.6M a year and the whole list adds +3.2 wins, taking the plan to 84.8 wins and 56% playoff odds. Spend to the floor
| Signing | Role | Owners’ terms (today) | Wins | 40-man |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers 1B | DH starter (over Spencer Horwitz) | 2 yr × $15.6Mtoday $17.7M | +1.8 | — |
| Jack Flaherty SP | Rotation depth (all starts) (over Isaac Mattson) | 2 yr × $9.5Mtoday $10.8M | +1.0 | Noah Murdock leaves |
| Alex Vesia RP | Bullpen (over Brandon Eisert) | 1 yr × $8.5Mtoday $9.7M | +0.4 | Lake Bachar leaves |
The list adds +3.2 wins (the whole list measured at once, so it can differ from the sum of the rows) for $33.6M a year at the owners’ proposed prices ($38.2M at today’s), leaving $445K of its $34.0M budget unspent.With it this combination projects 84.8 wins (80% range 73–97) and 56% playoff odds. Prices are estimates from last winter’s market; the Free-Agent Board has the ranges and the cautions. Timing: the 40-man is at 40 as the Rule 5 protections are filed (Nov 17) after Henry Davis’s release is brought forward, so a signing that lands before then needs a cut first (next in the cut order: Noah Murdock).
Luxury-tax basis (keystone_models.money.payroll): guaranteed deals at their luxury-tax AAV, arbitration at Keystone's estimate, the rest of a 26-man roster at the minimum, plus RosterResource's benefits and other non-player items. RosterResource's own 2027 estimate leaves pre-arbitration salaries out. Today’s roster comes to $126.7M on that basis; RosterResource’s own estimate is $113.5M. On the owners’ proposed terms, arbitration salaries and the minimum salary follow their proposal. Wins are the 2027 Outlook’s “as it stands” projection plus the WAR each scenario adds, within one season of team playing time; odds and the 80% ranges come from the same simulation.