Run prevention / Catching

What is each catcher worth behind the plate now that hitters can challenge?

A catcher saves runs four ways the data measures: framing, blocking, throwing and, since 2026, his ABS challenges. In 2026 the spread of framing among regulars fell to 57% of 2024–25 (53% once the noise in a season’s total is removed): challenges, the umpires’ own calls and a redefined zone all played a part. The Winter Plan starts Rafael Flores Jr. with Endy Rodríguez as the backup (at catcher they split it: 266 and 268 plate appearances) and Christian Bethancourt (third catcher, minor-league deal) and Derek Berg (Triple-A depth) behind them. Henry Davis: shop him, then release him before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17) if no trade comes: the plan's protections need his 40-man spot, and the non-tender deadline (Nov 20) falls after the filing. The best projected glove among them for 2027 (among those with 1,500+ batters caught in 2024–26) is Christian Bethancourt (−2.2 runs a season, 80% range −12.9 to +8.5).

For general manager, catching coordinator, manager Model card 2025–26 · Keystone framing model · Savant blocking, throwing and challenge data

Best 2027 glove, 1,500+ batters caught −2.2 Christian Bethancourt · runs a season vs. average · 80% range −12.9 to +8.5 · 1,674 batters caught in 2024–26

Starter (Winter Plan) Flores Jr. backup Endy Rodríguez · 266 and 268 PA at catcher: a split · then Bethancourt, Berg

Framing spread, 2026 57% of 2024–25 · 83% of the drop from umpires’ own calls

If Rodríguez misses 2027 −0.42 W as rated · −0.92 W if the Triple-A catchers are replacement level

Pittsburgh’s catchers for 2027

Roles from the Winter Plan (decisions feed). 2026 components; framing by season regressed for sample; the 2027 projection behind the plate.

Rafael Flores Jr. Starter

Framing−0.9Blocking−1.1Throwing−0.8Challenges−0.1Total−3.0

2026 framing: −0.3 on the umpires’ calls, −0.9 after challenges (Savant +0.7)

Framing, regressed for sample: 2025 0.0 · 2026 −0.5

2027 behind the plate: −5.1 runs a season vs. average (80% range −15.6 to +5.4; 1,155 batters caught, 2024–26)

Plan: +3.5 WAR per 600 PA at catcher (80% range +1.9 to +5.1) · 266 PA · 180 MLB PA since 2024, .858 OPS in 2026

ABS: won 20 of 38 challenges in 2026 · Challenge Coach

Endy Rodríguez Backup · 60-day IL

Framing−1.5Blocking−0.7Throwing−1.1Challenges0.0Total−3.3

2026 framing: +1.4 on the umpires’ calls, −1.5 after challenges (Savant +1.0)

Framing, regressed for sample: 2023 −3.5 · 2025 0.0 · 2026 −0.9

2027 behind the plate: −7.6 runs a season vs. average (80% range −17.8 to +2.5; 1,461 batters caught, 2024–26)

Plan: +2.1 WAR per 600 PA at catcher (80% range +0.4 to +3.7) · 289 PA (268 at catcher) · 216 MLB PA since 2024, .840 OPS in 2026

ABS: won 9 of 22 challenges in 2026 · Challenge Coach

Ended 2026 on the 60-day IL (Left hip inflammation). The plan assumes he is ready for spring; that is a medical call we can't see.

Christian Bethancourt Third catcher (minor-league deal)

No 2026 MLB catching.

Framing, regressed for sample: 2022 −1.4 · 2023 +0.1 · 2024 −6.3

2027 behind the plate: −2.2 runs a season vs. average (80% range −12.9 to +8.5; 1,674 batters caught, 2024–26)

Plan: 36 PA · 147 MLB PA since 2024

Likely a minor-league free agent: outrighted Sep 7, 2026 with major-league time since 2013: he can elect free agency after the season.

Derek Berg Depth (Triple-A)

No 2026 MLB catching.

2027 behind the plate: no MLB catching record (counted as average; 80% range −12.8 to +12.8)

Plan: 101 PA

Leaving

Henry Davis · Trade or release before the Rule 5 filing (Winter Plan): 2026 total +4.4 (framing +1.5, blocking +1.0, throwing +1.9); 2027 glove +3.7 (80% range −3.1 to +10.5). Shop him, then release him before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17) if no trade comes: the plan's protections need his 40-man spot, and the non-tender deadline (Nov 20) falls after the filing. He caught 97% of Paul Skenes’s 2026 pitches (31 of 32 games); the plan’s catchers caught 3%. Not counted in the wins. He caught 50% of Braxton Ashcraft’s 2026 pitches (14 of 28 games); the plan’s catchers caught 35%. Not counted in the wins.

The plan starts Rafael Flores Jr. for his bat. At catcher it values him at +3.5 WAR per 600 PA against +0.3 for Henry Davis, a gap of 3.3 WAR (about 32 runs; 80% range 13 to 50, from how far the plan’s projections have missed for hitters with records like theirs); behind the plate Keystone rates Henry Davis 8.8 runs a season better (80% range −3.7 to +21.3). With both ranges counted, the bat gap comes out the larger about 9 times in 10: so the bat decides it. Rafael Flores Jr.’s case rests on 180 MLB PA since 2024. The plan’s values come from FanGraphs WAR, whose catcher defense uses FanGraphs’ framing, not Keystone’s; the glove numbers on this page are Keystone’s. Weighted by the plan’s 671 PA at catcher, its 4 catchers project −5.2 runs a season behind the plate (80% range −11.3 to +1.0); with Henry Davis in Endy Rodríguez’s 268 PA at catcher, −0.7. The 2027 projections were tested out of sample: forecasting 2026 from 2023–25 for 68 catchers with 1,000+ batters caught, the calibration slope was 0.93 (1 means the projections are neither too spread out nor too timid) and 81% landed inside the 80% range a projection plus a season’s chance allows. A catcher with no MLB catching record is counted as average, with the widest range. Such catchers were −3.2 runs a season in 2024–26 (80% range −8.1 to +1.5), but starting them at the 2024–25 figure (−9.2) would have forecast 2026 worse than average did (12.9 vs. 12.0 runs of error), since 2026’s did better (+14.5 among the 5 who caught 1,000+).

Catching depth after the plan

The decisions feed: who can catch in 2027, the backup’s health, and the third-catcher call

Who can catch

Endy Rodríguez 40-man · 60-day IL · 289 plan PA
Rafael Flores Jr. 40-man · 266 plan PA
Derek Berg non-roster · 101 plan PA
Christian Bethancourt non-roster · 36 plan PA

2 catchers on the 40-man once Henry Davis is gone (by Nov 17, before the Rule 5 filing); the plan’s 40-man ends at 39 of 40, so a catcher called up from Triple-A fits the open spot. Behind them, under contract for 2027: Easton Carmichael (AA), Camden Janik (AA) and Samuel Escudero (AA); status unclear: Jose Herrera (AAA). Likely minor-league free agents after the season: Cameron Barstad (AAA).

If Endy Rodríguez isn’t ready

11 of 46 hitters who ended a season on the 60-day IL opened the next one on it (catchers 2 of 6). A small sample; the medical call isn’t in our data.

Branch	As rated	Triple-A at replacement
Opens on the IL	−0.09 W	−0.32 W
Out for the season	−0.42 W	−0.92 W

Wins against the plan with everyone ready.

The third catcher · a toss-up

Trade or release Henry Davis before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17); re-sign Christian Bethancourt to a minor-league deal (non-roster). Re-sign Christian Bethancourt before he can elect minor-league free agency (≈ Nov 5). 5 of the 8 options sit within $1.8M of the best under today’s rules; the pick is the best of them on value and needs no 40-man spot.

Option	40-man	Today’s rules	Owners’ floor, money free	Owners’ floor, face value
Non-tender, then Derek Berg is the next catcher up	0	−$61K	$0	−$78K
Tender Henry Davis and keep him as the third catcher	+1	−$756K	$2.6M	−$666K
Tender Henry Davis, decide in springtoday's rules: release him either way, owing termination pay; owners' terms with the floor money free: keep him either way	+1	−$427K	$2.6M	−$400K
Non-tender, then re-sign Christian Bethancourt to a minor-league deal	0	$450K	$449K	$372K
Non-tender, then re-sign Jose Herrera to a minor-league deal	0	−$61K	$0	−$78K
Non-tender, then sign Gary Sánchez: 1 yr × $2.67M	+1	−$1.7M	$822K	−$1.5M
Non-tender, then sign Austin Hedges: 1 yr × $4.23M	+1	−$3.7M	$483K	−$3.2M
Non-tender, then sign Jake Rogers: 1 yr × $2.61M	+1	−$2.2M	$392K	−$1.9M

Net value of each option: expected wins at the plan’s price of a win, minus its cost. Under today’s rules the best is to non-tender, then re-sign Christian Bethancourt to a minor-league deal. On the owners’ proposed floor (a proposal), with the floor money free the best is to tender Henry Davis, decide in spring or tender Henry Davis and keep him as the third catcher (tied). At face value it is to non-tender, then re-sign Christian Bethancourt to a minor-league deal. The call flips between the two ends. It turns on the floor money’s other uses. Per $10M of 2027 payroll, “Tender Henry Davis and keep him as the third catcher” buys 0.10 wins; the best other use (Jack Flaherty, mid-tier starter) buys 0.98. The floor money has better uses, so the plan’s pick holds.

Catchers on the market

Free-Agent Board catchers with Keystone’s 2027 glove projection beside the board’s fit

Catcher	2026	Price	Board wins	Glove 2027
Carson Kelly	CHC	2 × $14.5M	+0.85	+4.1
Tyler Stephenson	CIN	2 × $11.4M	+0.64	−7.0
Ryan Jeffers	MIN	2 × $15.8M	+0.61	−6.4
Alex Jackson · free agency in doubt	MIN	1 × $3.2M	+0.32	+0.4
Austin Hedges · a plan option	CLE	1 × $4.2M	+0.22	+6.8
Jake Rogers · a plan option	CWS	1 × $2.6M	+0.20	+3.4
Elias Díaz	TEX	1 × $1.6M	—	+4.4
Christian Vázquez	HOU	1 × $1.3M	—	+3.8
Luke Maile	KC	1 × $1.2M	—	0.0
Reese McGuire	—	1 × $1.5M	—	−0.6
Eric Haase · free agency in doubt	ATL	1 × $1.4M	—	−0.7
Austin Wynns	CHC	1 × $1.2M	—	−1.2
Ben Rortvedt	—	1 × $1.3M	—	−1.7
Jonah Heim	ATH	1 × $1.1M	—	−2.7
Kyle Higashioka	TEX	1 × $2.5M	—	−6.1
Travis d'Arnaud	LAA	1 × $1.3M	—	−6.8
James McCann	AZ	1 × $2.6M	—	−9.2
Gary Sánchez · a plan option	MIL	1 × $2.7M	—	−9.2
Mitch Garver	NYY	1 × $1.3M	—	−9.8

Every catcher on the Free-Agent Board: the board’s fit first, then the catchers it doesn’t value, by Keystone’s glove. Board wins come from the Free-Agent Board, which values a catcher at catcher even as a third catcher, so bench catchers’ wins run high there. The plan prices its own third-catcher options (marked) in the panel above.

Every catcher, every component

Runs vs. an average catcher. Framing is Keystone’s (final calls); blocking and throwing are Savant’s; challenges = his failed challenges’ cost vs. average. Pittsburgh’s catchers always shown.

Catcher	#	Team	Called
Dillon Dingler	1	DET	8,376	+9.8	+2.7	+3.2	+0.6	+16.2	+11.6	1.83	+4.9
Brandon Valenzuela	2	TOR	5,371	+8.0	−0.7	+5.1	−0.1	+12.3	+13.8	1.86	+7.8
Austin Wells	3	NYY	8,053	+10.5	+2.3	−1.9	+0.3	+11.1	+8.3	1.97	−3.0
Alejandro Kirk	4	TOR	5,350	+8.0	+3.7	−0.9	−0.5	+10.4	+11.7	1.94	−1.3
Joe Mack	5	MIA	6,616	+4.2	+0.2	+5.2	0.0	+9.6	+8.7	1.84	+8.0
Adley Rutschman	6	BAL	5,725	+3.8	+1.2	+3.7	+0.6	+9.3	+9.7	1.91	+5.6
Luis Torrens	7	NYM	5,674	+4.8	+1.2	+2.6	+0.3	+8.8	+9.3	1.78	+4.0
Freddy Fermin	8	SD	5,735	+1.2	+2.4	+4.2	0.0	+7.8	+8.1	1.83	+6.4
Tyler Heineman	9	LAA	4,506	+5.2	−0.2	+2.1	+0.5	+7.6	+10.1	1.90	+3.2
Gabriel Moreno	10	AZ	7,057	+3.1	+1.3	+2.1	+0.2	+6.6	+5.6	1.84	+3.2
Daniel Susac	11	SF	3,136	+4.5	−0.7	+2.4	−0.1	+6.2	+11.8	1.83	+3.7
Liam Hicks	12	MIA	4,416	+6.1	−1.4	+1.7	−0.3	+6.0	+8.1	1.91	+2.6
Patrick Bailey	13	CLE	7,174	+4.7	−2.0	+3.5	−0.5	+5.7	+4.8	1.83	+5.3
Rafael Marchán	14	PHI	2,117	+3.3	+1.1	+1.2	+0.1	+5.6	+16.0	1.83	+1.8
Jose Trevino	15	CIN	3,486	+2.7	+1.1	+0.7	+0.1	+4.7	+8.0	1.98	+1.1
Carlos Narváez	16	BOS	6,127	+1.6	+3.2	−0.2	0.0	+4.6	+4.5	1.92	−0.3
Henry Davis · leaving	17	PIT	6,506	+1.5	+1.0	+1.9	0.0	+4.4	+4.1	1.87	+3.0
Victor Caratini	18	MIN	5,539	+7.0	+0.9	−3.9	−0.6	+3.5	+3.8	2.04	−6.0
Ali Sánchez	19	NYY	2,297	+4.5	−0.4	−0.6	−0.2	+3.4	+8.8	1.89	−1.0
J.C. Escarra	20	NYY	1,887	+1.3	+0.9	+0.5	+0.1	+2.9	+9.1	1.89	+0.8
Pedro Pagés	21	STL	4,832	+0.4	0.0	+1.7	+0.5	+2.6	+3.3	1.90	+2.7
Elias Díaz	22	TEX	4,481	+0.7	+0.4	+1.0	−0.2	+2.0	+2.7	1.81	+1.6
Hunter Feduccia	23	TB	5,035	+6.1	−1.4	−2.9	+0.1	+1.9	+2.3	1.99	−4.4
J.T. Realmuto	24	PHI	9,037	−0.7	−1.1	+2.1	+1.3	+1.6	+1.1	1.80	+3.2
Christian Vázquez	25	HOU	5,798	+3.5	−1.5	−1.0	−0.1	+1.0	+1.0	1.94	−1.6
Nick Fortes	26	TB	5,738	+0.6	+0.2	+0.3	−0.3	+0.8	+0.9	1.87	+0.5
Jimmy Crooks	27	STL	2,717	+2.2	−1.4	−0.2	+0.2	+0.8	+1.8	1.90	−0.3
Keibert Ruiz	28	WSH	7,104	+3.1	0.0	−2.1	−0.5	+0.5	+0.4	1.98	−3.2
Drew Romo	29	CWS	4,395	+1.3	−0.9	+0.8	−0.7	+0.4	+0.6	1.87	+1.2
Miguel Amaya	30	CHC	4,684	+0.8	−0.5	−0.1	+0.1	+0.3	+0.4	1.94	−0.2
Carson Kelly	31	CHC	7,179	+0.5	+1.6	−2.7	+0.8	+0.1	+0.1	1.90	−4.2
Harry Ford	32	WSH	2,369	+1.9	−1.4	−0.5	+0.1	+0.1	+0.3	1.87	−0.7
Brian Serven	33	ATH	1,706	−1.5	+1.7	−0.3	+0.2	+0.1	+0.5	1.93	−0.5
Carter Jensen	34	KC	7,593	+0.4	−2.1	+1.5	+0.3	+0.1	+0.1	1.87	+2.4
Jhonny Pereda	35	SEA	2,027	+0.2	+0.2	+0.1	−0.4	+0.1	+0.3	1.90	+0.1
Will Smith	36	LAD	4,225	−0.7	+0.8	−0.2	+0.3	+0.1	+0.1	1.90	−0.3
Rodolfo Durán	37	SD	2,041	−2.4	−0.4	+1.9	+0.1	−0.8	−2.2	1.87	+3.0
Eric Haase	38	SF	1,876	−0.2	−0.7	0.0	0.0	−1.0	−3.1	1.90	0.0
Sean Murphy	39	ATL	2,306	−0.6	+1.1	−1.3	−0.3	−1.1	−2.8	1.93	−2.0
Jake Rogers	40	DET	3,599	−0.8	−1.2	+0.6	+0.2	−1.1	−1.9	1.92	+1.0
Shea Langeliers	41	ATH	5,753	−2.6	−0.7	+1.9	+0.2	−1.2	−1.2	1.82	+2.9
Francisco Alvarez	42	NYM	6,231	+1.6	−3.3	+0.9	−0.5	−1.2	−1.2	1.89	+1.4
Kyle Teel	43	CWS	2,498	−0.3	−1.8	+1.5	−0.7	−1.3	−3.1	1.94	+2.4
Drew Millas	44	WSH	3,352	+0.6	−1.0	−0.9	−0.1	−1.4	−2.5	1.86	−1.4
Austin Wynns	45	ATH	1,850	−1.1	+1.0	−1.4	−0.3	−1.7	−5.7	1.90	−2.1
Bo Naylor	46	CLE	2,027	−0.8	0.0	−1.0	+0.1	−1.8	−5.2	1.85	−1.6
Moisés Ballesteros	47	LAA	1,743	−0.7	−0.9	+0.1	−0.3	−1.9	−6.4	1.91	+0.2
Hunter Goodman	48	COL	7,097	+0.4	−0.6	−1.8	+0.1	−2.0	−1.7	1.90	−2.8
Agustín Ramírez	49	MIA	1,752	−0.1	−1.6	−0.6	−0.2	−2.5	−8.7	1.98	−1.0
Luis Campusano	50	SD	3,941	−4.6	−0.2	+2.8	−0.7	−2.6	−4.0	1.91	+4.3
Drake Baldwin	51	ATL	5,670	−0.3	+0.4	−3.2	+0.4	−2.7	−2.8	1.87	−4.9
Joey Bart	52	PIT	2,573	−4.5	+0.2	+1.1	+0.3	−2.9	−6.7	1.89	+1.8
Rafael Flores Jr.	53	PIT	2,303	−0.9	−1.1	−0.8	−0.1	−3.0	−7.8	1.91	−1.3
Jonah Heim	54	ATH	5,605	+1.2	−2.3	−1.8	−0.1	−3.1	−3.3	1.94	−2.7
William Contreras	55	MIL	9,062	−3.8	−1.7	+3.1	−0.9	−3.3	−2.2	1.88	+4.7
Ryan Jeffers	56	MIN	5,855	+0.7	+0.1	−3.8	−0.3	−3.3	−3.4	1.93	−5.9
Endy Rodríguez	57	PIT	2,474	−1.5	−0.7	−1.1	0.0	−3.3	−8.0	1.84	−1.7
Travis d'Arnaud	58	LAA	1,925	−3.0	−0.3	−0.3	+0.2	−3.4	−10.6	1.91	−0.5
Andrew Knizner	59	SF	1,707	−1.1	−1.0	−1.6	+0.1	−3.7	−12.8	1.99	−2.5
Kyle Higashioka	60	TEX	3,093	−1.9	+0.1	−2.2	+0.3	−3.7	−7.1	2.03	−3.4
Gary Sánchez	61	MIL	2,865	−1.3	−1.6	−0.3	−0.5	−3.7	−7.7	1.89	−0.4
Drew Cavanaugh	62	SF	3,289	−4.8	+1.0	+0.4	−0.3	−3.7	−6.8	1.85	+0.6
Salvador Perez	63	KC	3,316	−4.3	−1.1	+1.0	+0.1	−4.4	−7.9	1.95	+1.5
Yainer Diaz	64	HOU	6,298	−3.9	−0.4	0.0	−0.3	−4.6	−4.4	1.92	0.0
Samuel Basallo	65	BAL	4,311	−7.1	+1.0	+1.4	−0.1	−4.7	−6.6	1.92	+2.1
Brett Sullivan	66	COL	4,528	−3.8	+0.1	−1.0	−0.3	−5.0	−6.7	1.97	−1.6
Iván Herrera	67	STL	4,141	−1.0	+0.2	−4.5	+0.3	−5.1	−7.4	1.98	−7.0
Austin Hedges	68	CLE	5,264	−2.0	−0.7	−2.3	−0.1	−5.2	−5.9	1.87	−3.6
Mitch Garver	69	SEA	2,271	−4.4	−0.4	−0.7	+0.2	−5.3	−14.1	2.00	−1.1
Dalton Rushing	70	LAD	3,900	−4.9	−0.8	−0.1	+0.2	−5.6	−8.6	1.91	−0.2
Danny Jansen	71	TEX	4,338	−7.6	+2.0	−0.9	+0.6	−5.8	−8.1	1.96	−1.3
Cal Raleigh	72	SEA	7,088	−6.3	+2.7	−3.4	+0.3	−6.6	−5.6	1.99	−5.2
James McCann	73	AZ	3,135	−5.8	+0.3	−1.2	−0.1	−6.9	−13.2	1.93	−1.9
Connor Wong	74	BOS	4,440	−6.5	+0.1	−1.2	+0.5	−7.1	−9.6	1.94	−1.8
Tyler Stephenson	75	CIN	8,568	−8.7	+3.1	−2.2	+0.4	−7.3	−5.1	1.96	−3.4
Edgar Quero	76	CWS	3,977	−4.5	−2.0	−0.2	−0.9	−7.5	−11.4	1.93	−0.3
Logan O'Hoppe	77	LAA	5,444	−8.6	−2.5	−1.0	−0.2	−12.3	−13.5	1.99	−1.5

Framing on final calls (Keystone) + blocking + throwing (Savant) + challenge cost: his failed challenges' state-dependent cost (Savant) against an average catcher's per called pitch. Challenges he won are already strikes in final-call framing, so Savant's challenge runs are not added. Rank (#) is by total among catchers with 1,500+ called pitches; per 6,000 is the total per 6,000 called pitches, a full season’s load. Single seasons are noisy, so read 2026 as context and the 2027 projection as the estimate.

Framing in the challenge era

Keystone framing model, every taken pitch 2021–26. Spread = standard deviation of framing runs among regulars (4,000+ called pitches).

Bar labels are the spread in runs; 2026 is outlined on the umpires’ original calls (5.4). Measured on variances, about 83% of the drop since 2024–25 is in the umpires’ own calls, which depend less on the catcher; challenges reversing calls account for the rest. Part of the umpire share may be the zone itself: in 2026 the zone’s top and bottom became fixed for each batter (within-batter spread of the zone top 0.9″ in 2025, about 0 in 2026; mean top 3.43 → 3.21 ft). About 2.3 runs of a regular’s 2026 total is chance; removing it, framing’s true spread is 53% of 2024–25. Projections count pre-2026 framing at 57%. Like for like, Savant’s 2026 framing tracks Keystone’s on the umpires’ calls at r = 0.96 and on final calls at r = 0.92.

Biggest framing drops beyond regression, 2025 → 2026

Catcher	2025	Expected	2026	Change from challenges
Cal Raleigh SEA	+9.8	+2.7	−6.3	+0.4
Austin Hedges CLE	+13.1	+5.7	−2.0	−2.8
Logan O'Hoppe LAA	−10.8	−2.6	−8.6	+2.5
Danny Jansen TEX	−9.8	−2.4	−7.6	+0.4
William Contreras MIL	+1.0	+0.3	−3.8	+2.6
Patrick Bailey CLE	+32.3	+8.8	+4.7	−0.5

A big 2025 number was always going to shrink: carry-over was 0.34 per pitch into 2026. Sorted by the drop beyond that. “Change from challenges” is final-call framing minus framing on the umpires’ calls: negative when hitters took back more strikes than the catcher won. Framing on the umpires’ calls uses its own expected-call model, fit on those calls, so part of the gap is the difference between the two fits, not only challenges.