PIT · C

Rafael Flores Jr.

Age 25 B/T R/R 6′3″, 232 lb USA MLB debut 2025

Pittsburgh org 40-man FV 40+ · #15 in org

Winter Plan starts at C · 266 PA · 1.6 WAR in the role
Injured list 2026: Concussion (Jul 24–Aug 1)
PNC Park Pittsburgh’s home park: −2.7 runs per 600 PA against an average park (−0.12 wins over 266 PA; his WAR leaves this out); home runs ×0.80 (×0.77 for right-handed hitters as a group). Park Fit →

xwOBA .350 wOBA .367

2026 fWAR 1.2

Projected 2027 WAR 1.3 at 283 PA · 1.6 in his 2027 role

Development · trends & plan

Tracked levels only. Monthly values; gaps mark the offseason. The number beside each line is its last month, with that month’s sample (faded under 50 PA or 150 pitches), not the season.

Trends · MLB

Bat speed 73.3 mph Sep ’26 · 71 PA Sep ’25 – Sep ’26

Chase rate 25% Sep ’26 · 71 PA Sep ’25 – Sep ’26

Zone contact 78% Sep ’26 · 71 PA Sep ’25 – Sep ’26

Exit velocity (avg) 91.1 mph Sep ’26 · 71 PA Sep ’25 – Sep ’26

xwOBA .363 Sep ’26 · 71 PA Sep ’25 – Sep ’26

Strikeout rate 21% Sep ’26 · 71 PA Sep ’25 – Sep ’26

Hitting · 2026

160 PA: percentiles need 300+, so values only

xwOBA .350

Swing decisions +0.20

Contact value +2.10

Bat speed 74.0

Squared-up / swing 20%

Blasts / swing 9%

EV90 105.8

Barrel % 13.7%

Chase % 27.8%

Zone contact 77.7%

Strikeout % 27.5%

Walk % 8.8%

Platoon splits · swing path

By pitcher handedness

vs	PA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Chase	Decisions	Contact
LHP	77	.390	.342	27%	10%	27%	+0.42	+1.62
RHP	83	.346	.358	28%	7%	29%	+0.01	+2.57

Attack angle: 15.4° (60% in 5–20°)
Attack direction: −0.5°
Swing length: 7.5 ft
Fast-swing rate: 36%
Pull-air %: 20.6%
Hard-hit %: 45.1%
Slash · wRC+: .264/.331/.527 · 130

Zone map · 2026

Where he does damage, and where to pitch him

Does the most damage down and away (+3.6 vs. league per 100; 1.6 standard errors on 35 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).

Weakest up over the middle (−2.3), but only 1.0 standard errors from average on 28 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.

Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average RHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 597 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).

Most similar hitters

Swings like Flores: bat path, contact quality and approach

Similarity	Player	xwOBA	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
69	Heriberto Hernández MIA · ’99	.348	1.7	1.6	Pre-arb
68	Kazuma Okamoto TOR · ’96	.328	3.0	1.7	Signed $17.3M
66	Dalton Rushing LAD · ’01	.336	1.1	1.0	Pre-arb
63	Andrés Chaparro WSH · ’99	.342	1.0	0.5	Pre-arb
61	Zack Gelof ATH · ’99	.324	2.7	1.5	Arb

Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.

Fielding

2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.

2027 rating by position · best fit first, on the total with the position’s worth

C −5.1 +7.4

1B −2.5 −15.0

Outs Above Average by position

Season	Pos	OAA	Range	Arm, DP	Runs	Batters
2026	1B	−1	−1	+0.6	−0.4	404
2025	1B	+1	0	−0.3	−0.3	141

Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.

Range by direction (OAA at 1B)

2025 · 1B2026 · 1B In (charging) 00Back 00Toward 3B line +1−2Toward 1B line −10vs. RHH +1−1vs. LHH 00

At 1B in 2026, the biggest loss came toward 3B line (−2 outs): a coaching target, though he plays C in 2027.

Tools (percentile among MLB fielders)

Arm strength —

Sprint speed 26.4 ft/s · 26th

Zone rating (Keystone expected outs)

Season	Zone	Balls	Outs vs. exp.
Too few balls in his zone.

The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.

Compare in the Fielding Lab →

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 1.3 WAR Pre-arb $780K*

2028 1.3 WAR Pre-arb $803K*

2029 1.3 WAR Pre-arb $828K*

2030 1.2 WAR Arbitration $2.9M*

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2026AAA	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	25	65	276 PA	276 PA · .228/.362/.342 · 4 HR · 25.0% K · 16.7% BB
2025AA	AA	Somerset Patriots	24	87	370 PA	370 PA · .287/.346/.496 · 15 HR · 25.4% K · 8.1% BB
2025AAA	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	24	46	206 PA	206 PA · .266/.369/.422 · 7 HR · 26.2% K · 12.6% BB

FanGraphs: FV 40+ · ETA 2026. Public pitch tracking exists only at Triple-A and some Florida State League parks; where he has it, the development panel above shows it.

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As batter 0% 0/2 won · −0.2 runs

As catcher 53% 20/38 won · −1.2 runs