Where are we deep, and where will we be bare?

Who counts

Major leaguers count each season they’re under control: guaranteed, arbitration and pre-arbitration years in full; a club option only when Contract Studio’s rule (value at least the cost) says the club exercises it; a player option or opt-out at the chance he stays; a mutual option at most 25%. A 40-man player with no contract row gets the least control his debut allows, marked as an estimate. Prospects arrive at FanGraphs’ ETA, but no sooner than their level allows (Triple-A and Double-A 2027, High-A and Single-A 2028, complex leagues 2029, the DSL 2030).

How a prospect counts

His chance of becoming a regular times the WAR a season his grade is worth, from FanGraphs’ prospect-value table (Ben Clemens, Jul 2, 2026), bust-weighted. His first season is ramped down by how often prospects arrived on time in 2026 (Triple-A 69%, Double-A 38%) and by debut-year playing time. Expected WAR = projected value at the spot × playing time × that chance, so a long-shot prospect fills little of a slot even when he’s the only name there.

The bar

The regular bar is the median projected WAR of every club’s regular at the spot in 2024–26, from projections made before each season and valued the way the depth is, so it compares like with like (what the regulars went on to do runs higher, since the ones who kept the job were partly the ones who had good years): C 1.7 · 1B 1.2 · 2B 2.0 · 3B 1.7 · SS 2.4 · LF 1.5 · CF 1.9 · RF 1.5 · DH 0.4 · SP1 2.3 · SP3 1.2 · SP5 0.6 · HL1 0.9 · MID1 0.3. Covered = at or above the bar; below = at least half; thin = under half; open = nobody above replacement. A surplus is a regular-caliber player (at least 50% of the bar at his best spot) with no slot or pushed off it; the backup catcher every club carries never counts.

Does it work?

Rebuilt as of the 2024–25 offseason and checked against 2026: spots graded open were filled from outside the organization 62% of the time (80% range 50–73%, n = 29), thin 36%, below the bar 38% and covered 24% (19–29%). A higher need went with an outside fill 63% of the time (58–67%; 50% would be no signal). Thin and below weren’t told apart. Surplus doesn’t predict trades (31% of flagged players changed clubs, 27% of other regulars), but it does find blocked players. Prospect timing: 53% of prospects with a 2026 ETA arrived in 2026 (Triple-A 69%, Double-A 38%); 15% of 2027 ETAs came a year early. The 2027 grid starts 9 of the Winter Plan’s 9 lineup starters at the plan’s positions, with the same rotation.

What it doesn’t see

• The arrival ramp's on-time share and debut-year playing time are measured on 2026 (the only season with a board), so the ETA calibration above is the ramp's own data, not an out-of-sample test of it.
• Prospect arrivals beyond one season: the 2026 board is the only list in our data, so ETA is checked on 2026 debuts only.
• 2026 draftees' arrival: the board's signing-to-ETA lag for 2024–25 draftees by school and grade band is FanGraphs' forecast for those classes, not their measured arrivals (one or two seasons after signing is too soon to see when a class arrives), and a draftee's grade is the one his trade value sits at, not a scouting grade; the High-A floor for a college pick is Keystone's reading.
• The FV table's WAR and the chance of a regular are FanGraphs' and McDaniel's published figures, not re-estimated or calibrated on our data.
• Player-option, mutual-option and vesting probabilities are model assumptions (σ from projection updates; vesting 0.5), not checked against past option decisions.
• Surplus and need in 2028–31 depend on contract projections and aging that the backtest (2026 only) doesn't reach.
• Injuries, breakouts and slumps beyond what the projections carry; other clubs’ moves; the free-agent market after this winter.

Every figure here is an estimate. Model card