PIT · 1B

Spencer Horwitz

Age 28 B/T L/R 5′10″, 204 lb USA MLB debut 2023

Pittsburgh org 40-man

Winter Plan starts at DH · 461 PA · 0.6 WAR in the role
Injured list 2026: Left hamstring strain (Jun 25–Aug 2)
PNC Park Pittsburgh’s home park: +2.2 runs per 600 PA against an average park (+0.18 wins over 461 PA; his WAR leaves this out); home runs ×0.99 (×0.99 for left-handed hitters as a group). Park Fit →

xwOBA .310 wOBA .323

2026 fWAR 0.1

Projected 2027 WAR 0.9 at 467 PA · 0.6 in his 2027 role

This winter

What the Winter Plan does with Horwitz: its decisions feed, the dated moves and the briefs

The plan keeps him: starts at DH · 461 PA · 0.6 WAR in the role.

≈ Dec 1 Spencer Horwitz: first base in 2026 → DHOnce the winter's moves land. Ryan O'Hearn takes first base; a toss-up with Ryan O'Hearn → DH / Spencer Horwitz → 1B (−0.17 W).

Options left: unknown (Keystone can’t estimate it from public data).

Development · trends & plan

Tracked levels only. Monthly values; gaps mark the offseason. The number beside each line is its last month, with that month’s sample (faded under 50 PA or 150 pitches), not the season.

Plan for 2027

1
Bat speed high ask Get bat speed back to his best season
68.8 mph average (13th percentile); he averaged 69.5 in an earlier season. Only bat speed he has already shown.
Bat speed: 68.8 mph target 69.5 mph Check at the 2027 All-Star break · noise then ±0.2 mph Bat tracking

Each goal is checked when his sample can tell the target from noise: the 2027 All-Star break if it can by then, else season’s end or the sample it needs; if no single season can, it’s a lean. Coach card

Trends · MLB

Bat speed 67.6 mph Sep ’26 · 70 PA Jun ’24 – Sep ’26

Chase rate 23% Sep ’26 · 70 PA Jun ’24 – Sep ’26

Zone contact 88% Sep ’26 · 70 PA Jun ’24 – Sep ’26

Exit velocity (avg) 85.7 mph Sep ’26 · 70 PA Jun ’24 – Sep ’26

xwOBA .277 Sep ’26 · 70 PA Jun ’24 – Sep ’26

Strikeout rate 21% Sep ’26 · 70 PA Jun ’24 – Sep ’26

Hitting · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB hitters with 300+ PA · 449 PA

xwOBA .310

Swing decisions +0.28

Contact value −0.63

Bat speed 68.8

Squared-up / swing 27%

Blasts / swing 5%

EV90 101.2

Barrel % 5.7%

Chase % 24.6%

Zone contact 91.1%

Strikeout % 16.3%

Walk % 12.0%

Platoon splits · swing path

By pitcher handedness

vs	PA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Chase	Decisions	Contact
LHP	90	.293	.294	18%	12%	24%	+0.52	−2.38
RHP	359	.330	.314	16%	12%	25%	+0.22	−0.21

Attack angle: 9.2° (50% in 5–20°)
Attack direction: −1.9°
Swing length: 6.9 ft
Fast-swing rate: 4%
Pull-air %: 16.2%
Hard-hit %: 30.5%
Slash · wRC+: .244/.344/.364 · 98

Zone map · 2026

Where he does damage, and where to pitch him

Does the most damage up over the middle (+2.9 vs. league per 100; 1.4 standard errors on 96 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).

Weakest middle-in (−3.6), but only 1.7 standard errors from average on 75 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.

Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average LHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 1,640 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).

Most similar hitters

Swings like Horwitz: bat path, contact quality and approach

Similarity	Player	xwOBA	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
73	Nick Loftin KC · ’98	.296	1.3	0.7	Pre-arb
69	Luke Keaschall MIN · ’02	.323	3.0	2.9	Pre-arb
65	Jakob Marsee MIA · ’01	.319	2.5	2.6	Pre-arb
64	Carson Kelly CHC · ’94	.310	1.6	1.7	Free agent
62	Nick Sogard BOS · ’97	.315	1.2	0.9	Pre-arb

Carson Kelly (similarity 64, 1.7 WAR projected for 2027) is a free agent this winter: a similar swing available without trading talent, at a free agent’s price. Opportunity Finder →

Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.

Fielding

2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.

2027 rating by position · best fit first, on the total with the position’s worth

1B −0.1 −12.6

2B −14.6 −15.1

Outs Above Average by position

Season	Pos	OAA	Range	Arm, DP	Runs	Batters
2026	1B	−5	−4	0.0	−4.0	3,654
2025	1B	+1	+1	+1.4	+2.4	3,461
2024	1B	+2	+1	+2.0	+3.0	1,268
2024	2B	0	0	+0.3	+0.3	1,275
2023	1B	+1	+1	+0.4	+1.4	161

Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.

Range by direction (OAA at 1B)

2025 · 1B2026 · 1B In (charging) +1+2Back +1+1Toward 3B line −2−8Toward 1B line +10vs. RHH +2−2vs. LHH −1−2

At 1B in 2026, the biggest loss came toward 3B line (−8 outs): a coaching target.

Tools (percentile; arm among 1Bs)

Arm at 1B 73.6 mph · 38th

Sprint speed 24.7 ft/s · 4th

Zone rating (Keystone expected outs)

Season	Zone	Balls	Outs vs. exp.
2026	1B	212	+2.1
2025	1B	186	+5.8
2024	2B	120	−6.7
2024	1B	76	−2.7

The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.

Compare in the Fielding Lab →

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 0.9 WAR Arbitration $1.8M*

2028 0.7 WAR Arbitration $3.5M*

2029 0.3 WAR Arbitration $5.4M*

2030 −0.2 WAR Arbitration $5.4M*

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2026A	A	Bradenton Marauders	28	3	10 PA	10 PA · .333/.600/.833 · 1 HR · 20.0% K · 30.0% BB
2025AA	AA	Altoona Curve	27	5	18 PA	18 PA · .125/.222/.188 · 0 HR · 11.1% K · 11.1% BB
2025AAA	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	27	8	33 PA	33 PA · .323/.333/.484 · 1 HR · 21.2% K · 3.0% BB

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As batter 26% 5/19 won · −0.4 runs