Carson Kelly
- Free agent est. 2 yr × $14.5M ($6M–$28M) if his mutual option is declined · +0.8 wins to Pittsburgh’s Winter Plan as a bench bat
1 caution
- Holds a $7.5M mutual option for 2027; one side almost always declines.
- PNC Park Pittsburgh’s home park: −1.8 runs per 600 PA against an average park (−0.14 wins over 455 PA; his WAR leaves this out); home runs ×0.76 (×0.77 for right-handed hitters as a group). Park Fit →
Hitting · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB hitters with 300+ PA · 425 PA
Platoon splits · swing path
By pitcher handedness
| vs | PA | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Chase | Decisions | Contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LHP | 136 | .386 | .342 | 18% | 11% | 27% | +1.19 | +0.84 |
| RHP | 289 | .301 | .295 | 16% | 9% | 24% | +0.44 | −1.21 |
- Attack angle
- 10.4° (48% in 5–20°)
- Attack direction
- −4.7°
- Swing length
- 6.9 ft
- Fast-swing rate
- 8%
- Pull-air %
- 15.2%
- Hard-hit %
- 36.1%
- Slash · wRC+
- .258/.337/.376 · 103
Zone map · 2026
Where he does damage, and where to pitch him
Does the most damage middle-in (+4.3 vs. league per 100; 1.9 standard errors on 61 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).
Weakest up and in (−3.0), but only 1.3 standard errors from average on 66 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.
Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average RHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 1,513 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).
Most similar hitters
Swings like Kelly: bat path, contact quality and approach
| Similarity | Player | xwOBA | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | Victor Caratini MIN · ’93 | .305 | 0.7 | 0.7 | Signed $6.5M |
| 68 | Andruw Monasterio BOS · ’97 | .289 | −0.8 | −0.2 | Arb |
| 67 | Travis Bazzana CLE · ’02 | .300 | 2.8 | 2.4 | Pre-arb |
| 67 | Luke Keaschall MIN · ’02 | .323 | 3.0 | 2.9 | Pre-arb |
| 66 | Bryson Stott PHI · ’97 | .332 | 3.8 | 2.5 | Arb |
Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.
Fielding
2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.
| Season | Pos | OAA | Range | Arm, DP | Runs | Batters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No MLB fielding yet. | ||||||
Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.
No directional data (needs a qualified season at one position).
Tools (percentile among MLB fielders)| Season | Zone | Balls | Outs vs. exp. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Too few balls in his zone. | |||
The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
His 2027 is a $7.5M mutual option, decided ≈ Nov 1–5 (either side can decline it). The Free-Agent Board expects it declined, so it prices him as a free agent. Contract Studio →
ABS challenges · 2026
Baseball Savant