Player development / Call-Up Readiness

What is a minor-league season really worth in the majors?

How much is a big minor-league season worth? Less than it looks, and we measured how much. We took every hitter with 150+ AAA plate appearances in 2025 who reached the majors in 2026, 218 of them, and weighted each by his big-league plate appearances, so the call-ups who didn’t stick count too (scoring only the 108 who reached 100 PA made an average AAA hitter look .008 of wOBA better than he is). AAA contact quality predicted their big-league results slightly better than their AAA stat line (r .31 vs. .27). Scored honestly (every prediction made without the player it predicts), the depth chart’s rating is no better than assuming an average call-up; contact quality ranks call-ups about as well as prospect grades do (r .14 vs. .11). The depth chart blends the two, and the Winter Plan moves with it.

For farm director, general manager, manager Model card 2025–26 minor- and major-league lines (MLB Stats API) · AAA Statcast · tested 2025 AAA → 2026 MLB

Hitters tested 218 2025 AAA (150+ PA) → 2026 MLB, any PA · 108 reached 100

Contact quality vs. results r .31 AAA expected wOBA vs. 2026 MLB wOBA, PA-weighted · the AAA line itself: r .27

Call-up rating error 2.49 WAR/600, held out · an average call-up 2.46 · grade rule 2.59

Best tracked bat in the upper minors .320 Jacob Gonzalez · 80% range .305–.335 (MLB .313) · .279 in 227 MLB PA · 2 with 250+ career MLB PA left out · players on the Winter Plan’s 26-man are left out (they are in the plan’s thin-record table)

Rule 5 protection: Nov 17. The plan protects Termarr Johnson, Derek Diamond and Keiner Delgado; players marked R5 below are eligible and not on the 40-man. Rule 5 brief · Prospect Pipeline Third catcher: Trade or release Henry Davis before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17); re-sign Christian Bethancourt to a minor-league deal (non-roster) (a toss-up). Catching

Pittsburgh’s upper-minors hitters

2026 lines at AAA, AA and High-A (100+ PA; under 250 MLB PA in 2024–26), ranked by expected MLB wOBA or by the depth chart’s value at his position; players on the Winter Plan’s 26-man are left out (they are in the plan’s thin-record table)

Player	Lvl	Age	Pos	PA	wOBA	K% / BB%	AAA xwOBA	Expected MLB	vs. MLB avg	Bat runs /600	MLB record	Depth chart	Plan’s starter there	FV
Jacob Gonzalez 40 3 opt traded → HOU	AAA	24	SS	239	.456	21% / 14%	.380	.320CQ	≈ avg	+3	.279 · 227 PA	1.0SS	Konnor Griffin (3.0)	35+
Duce Gourson	AAA	23	3B	204	.364	25% / 13%	.340	.304CQ	≈ avg	−4	—	1.53B	Isaac Paredes (3.6)	45
Nick Cimillo R5	AAA	26	1B	378	.321	29% / 12%	.340	.304CQ	≈ avg	−4	—	−0.11B	Ryan O'Hearn (1.5)	—
Mitch Jebb R5	AAA	24	CF	250	.358	16% / 11%	.335	.302CQ	≈ avg	−5	—	1.3CF	Oneil Cruz (3.3)	—
Kyler Fedko R5 term ? IL	AAA	26	RF	307	.384	23% / 11%	.335	.302CQ	≈ avg	−5	.073 · 19 PA	—	Esmerlyn Valdez (3.0)	40
Jhostynxon Garcia 40 1 opt traded → HOU	AAA	23	CF	287	.333	24% / 8%	.317	.295CQ	below avg	−9	.194 · 59 PA	0.2CF	Oneil Cruz (3.3)	45
Nick Yorke 40 1 opt plan: call-up	AAA	24	2B	139	.284	22% / 9%	.311	.292CQ	below avg	−10	.262 · 231 PA	0.12B	Nick Gonzales (2.1)	35+
Termarr Johnson R5 · plan protects IL plan: call-up	AAA	22	2B	406	.300	25% / 17%	.304	.289CQ	below avg	−11	—	1.02B	Nick Gonzales (2.1)	45
Robert Hassell III FA in Nov?	AAA	24	LF	343	.285	25% / 10%	.294	.286CQ	below avg	−13	.251 · 206 PA	—	Bryan Reynolds (1.4)	—
Christian Bethancourt 1,301 MLB PA FA in Nov?	AAA	34	C	266	.331	22% / 5%	.294	.286CQ	below avg	−13	.262 · 147 PA	—	Rafael Flores Jr. (3.5)	—
Murf Gray	AA	22	3B	195	.381	22% / 15%	—	.282TR	can’t tell	−15	—	—	Isaac Paredes (3.6)	45
Jack Brannigan 40 2 opt plan: call-up	AAA	25	SS	196	.303	25% / 14%	.283	.281CQ	below avg	−15	.000 · 1 PA	0.9SS	Konnor Griffin (3.0)	40
Tyler Callihan 40 1 opt plan: minors	AAA	26	2B	378	.298	25% / 11%	.276	.278CQ	below avg	−17	.284 · 113 PA	−0.42B	Nick Gonzales (2.1)	35+
Easton Carmichael	AA	22	C	147	.314	15% / 7%	—	.276TR	can’t tell	−18	—	—	Rafael Flores Jr. (3.5)	40
Derek Berg	AAA	24	C	144	.247	34% / 8%	.260	.273CQ	below avg	−19	—	1.3C	Rafael Flores Jr. (3.5)	—
Joshua Palacios 578 MLB PA FA in Nov?	AAA	30	RF	140	.270	17% / 9%	.258	.272CQ	below avg	−20	.283 · 223 PA	—	Esmerlyn Valdez (3.0)	—
Keiner Delgado R5 · plan protects plan: minors	AA	22	SS	453	.324	20% / 12%	—	.272TR	can’t tell	−20	—	0.22B	Nick Gonzales (2.1)	40
Ryan McCarty FA in Nov?	AA	27	2B	102	.303	22% / 16%	—	.272TR	can’t tell	−20	—	—	Nick Gonzales (2.1)	—
Matt King	AA	23	2B	215	.295	15% / 11%	—	.271TR	can’t tell	−20	—	—	Nick Gonzales (2.1)	—
Titus Dumitru	AA	23	LF	492	.326	23% / 10%	—	.269TR	can’t tell	−21	—	—	Bryan Reynolds (1.4)	—
Lonnie White Jr. R5	AA	23	CF	380	.372	32% / 13%	—	.268TR	can’t tell	−22	—	—	Oneil Cruz (3.3)	—
Camden Janik	A+	23	C	166	.361	15% / 15%	—	.267TR	can’t tell	−22	—	—	Rafael Flores Jr. (3.5)	—
Callan Moss	AA	22	1B	530	.325	24% / 9%	—	.264TR	below avg	−23	—	—	Ryan O'Hearn (1.5)	—
Will Taylor	AA	23	CF	453	.320	26% / 10%	—	.264TR	below avg	−24	—	—	Oneil Cruz (3.3)	—
Jesus Castillo R5	AA	22	RF	265	.293	23% / 8%	—	.264TR	below avg	−24	—	—	Esmerlyn Valdez (3.0)	—
Axiel Plaz R5	A+	20	C	412	.388	17% / 9%	—	.263TR	below avg	−24	—	—	Rafael Flores Jr. (3.5)	40+
Mike Jarvis R5	AAA	28	SS	113	.244	33% / 11%	.215	.260CQ	below avg	−25	—	0.0CF	Oneil Cruz (3.3)	—
Dylan Palmer	A+	22	2B	244	.350	12% / 12%	—	.259TR	below avg	−26	—	—	Nick Gonzales (2.1)	—
Javier Rivas R5	AA	23	SS	313	.279	27% / 5%	—	.255TR	below avg	−28	—	—	Konnor Griffin (3.0)	—
Grae Kessinger FA in Nov?	AAA	28	SS	159	.187	25% / 9%	.216	.254CQ	below avg	−28	.112 · 25 PA	—	Konnor Griffin (3.0)	—
Ivan Brethowr	AA	23	RF	220	.275	32% / 14%	—	.254TR	below avg	−28	—	—	Esmerlyn Valdez (3.0)	—
Wyatt Sanford	A+	20	SS	341	.417	29% / 14%	—	.253TR	below avg	−29	—	—	Konnor Griffin (3.0)	45+
Jared Jones	A+	22	1B	358	.417	29% / 14%	—	.253TR	below avg	−29	—	—	Ryan O'Hearn (1.5)	35+
Cameron Barstad FA in Nov?	AA	25	C	138	.308	36% / 13%	—	.252TR	below avg	−29	—	—	Rafael Flores Jr. (3.5)	—
Edward Florentino	A+	19	RF	435	.362	26% / 15%	—	.252TR	below avg	−30	—	—	Esmerlyn Valdez (3.0)	50
Jhonny Severino	A+	21	3B	474	.350	22% / 7%	—	.251TR	below avg	−30	—	—	Isaac Paredes (3.6)	—
Tony Blanco Jr. R5	A+	21	1B	334	.385	29% / 10%	—	.249TR	below avg	−31	—	—	Ryan O'Hearn (1.5)	40+
Carlos Caro	A+	21	2B	216	.341	25% / 14%	—	.246TR	below avg	−32	—	—	Nick Gonzales (2.1)	—
Josh Tate	A+	22	LF	233	.343	25% / 9%	—	.242TR	below avg	−34	—	—	Bryan Reynolds (1.4)	—
Shalin Polanco R5	A+	22	RF	271	.307	28% / 13%	—	.242TR	below avg	−34	—	—	Esmerlyn Valdez (3.0)	—
Yordany De Los Santos R5	A+	21	SS	404	.348	29% / 8%	—	.239TR	below avg	−36	—	—	Konnor Griffin (3.0)	40

Expected MLB: wOBA if he played in the majors in 2027, with its 80% range; vs. MLB avg says whether that range sits above, around or below the MLB average (.313). Hover for the method. CQ = from his AAA contact quality (the tested model); TR rows (25) come from a translated line (AA and High-A have no tracking), a weaker read shrunk within his own level, so an average Double-A line sits .025 below an average Triple-A one. Translated lines were fit at Triple-A. On 51 2025 Double-A hitters who reached the majors in 2026 (2025 lines, 2025 factors), they came in .037 low and missed by .054; on 142 who played in Triple-A in 2026, a less selected group, the step up to Triple-A ran .017 low, against +.003 for Triple-A hitters who repeated the level (the Double-A group is younger, 23.3 vs. 26.0, so part of that may be development). Double-A ranges are the first test’s, about ±.048. Point estimates aren’t shifted for the miss; instead a call between hitters at different levels carries ±.020 more, and inside that it is a toss-up. High-A is untested (too few reach the majors) and takes the Double-A range. MLB PA badge: 2 hitters with 250+ career MLB PA once seasons before 2024 are counted (our big-league lines start in 2024; the earlier seasons come from FanGraphs’ season tables). Listed as depth; the headline leaves them out. MLB record: his 2024–26 big-league line, shown beside the estimate, not mixed in: on the test, blending a short MLB record (129 hitters) didn’t improve the forecast. Depth chart: what the Winter Plan’s engine rates him, WAR per 600 PA at the position shown, next to the plan’s starter at that same position (glove included).

The Winter Plan’s thin-record players

On the plan’s 26-man or call-up list with under 250 MLB PA (hitters) or 250 batters faced (pitchers), 2024–26, or rated by its engine on something other than his MLB record · roles from the decisions feed

Player	2027 role	Pos	Plan PA / IP	Plan WAR	Engine rates him on	Minor-league read	MLB record	Options	Health
Rafael Flores Jr.	lineup	C	266 PA	1.6	MLB record	AAA · .296 expected (.281–.310)	.355 · 180 PA	2	—
Endy Rodríguez	bench	C	289 PA	0.9	MLB record	AAA · .291 expected (.276–.306)	.329 · 216 PA	1	60-day IL
Ronny Simon	bench	RF	78 PA	0.1	AAA CQ 60% + grade	AAA · .306 expected (.292–.321)	.270 · 156 PA	1	—
Wilber Dotel	bullpen	P	53 IP	0.6	MLB record	—	182 BF	2	—
Termarr Johnsonprotect	call-up	—	101 PA	0.2	AAA CQ 60% + grade	AAA · .289 expected (.275–.304)	no MLB PA	off 40-man	full-season IL
Jack Brannigan	call-up	SS	42 PA	0.0	AAA CQ 60% + grade	AAA · .281 expected (.266–.296)	.000 · 1 PA	2	—
Nick Yorke	call-up	3B	10 PA	0.0	MLB record	AAA · .292 expected (.277–.307)	.262 · 231 PA	1	—
Khristian Curtis	call-up	P	19 IP	0.1	grade cap	AAA · translated FIP 5.20 · Stuff 103	87 BF	2	—
Antwone Kelly	call-up	P	18 IP	0.0	grade cap	AAA · translated FIP 5.79 · Stuff 95	81 BF	2	—
Noah Murdock	call-up	P	16 IP	0.0	grade cap	AAA · translated FIP 4.62 · Stuff 92	113 BF	2	—

The plan counts on these players with little or no major-league record. Its engine rates a player on his MLB record once he has about 150 PA (15 IP) last season, weighted: Rafael Flores Jr., Endy Rodríguez, Wilber Dotel and Nick Yorke. Ronny Simon, Termarr Johnson and Jack Brannigan are rated 60% from Triple-A contact quality and 40% from the prospect grade, so the minor-league read drives their plan WAR. Khristian Curtis, Antwone Kelly and Noah Murdock are held to their prospect grade’s rate. Reads the engine doesn’t use are grey. Endy Rodríguez (60-day IL) and Termarr Johnson (full-season IL) are hurt today; when each is ready is a medical call our data can’t see.

Internal options at the spots the plan must cover

Best three in the organization at each position by expected MLB wOBA, with its 80% range: everyone listed there or rated there by the depth chart (prospects the plan trades are left out); ≈ marks a toss-up with the one above; the depth chart’s value is shown at that position

C· plan starter Rafael Flores Jr.

Christian Bethancourt AAA · .286 ±.015 · FA in Nov? · 1,301 MLB PA
Easton Carmichael≈ toss-up AA · .276 ±.048
Derek Berg≈ toss-up AAA · .273 ±.015 · 1.3 WAR/600 at C

+3 more inside the noise of the third

2B· plan starter Nick Gonzales

Nick Yorke AAA · .292 ±.015 · 0.1 WAR/600 at 2B · 40
Termarr Johnson≈ toss-up AAA · .289 ±.015 · 1.0 WAR/600 at 2B · R5, plan protects · full-season IL
Jack Brannigan≈ toss-up AAA · .281 ±.015 · 0.5 WAR/600 at 2B · 40

+6 more inside the noise of the third

3B· plan starter Isaac Paredes

Duce Gourson AAA · .304 ±.015 · 1.5 WAR/600 at 3B
Nick Yorke≈ toss-up AAA · .292 ±.015 · 0.6 WAR/600 at 3B · 40
Termarr Johnson≈ toss-up AAA · .289 ±.015 · 0.8 WAR/600 at 3B · R5, plan protects · full-season IL

+5 more inside the noise of the third

SS· plan starter Konnor Griffin

Jack Brannigan AAA · .281 ±.015 · 0.9 WAR/600 at SS · 40
Keiner Delgado≈ toss-up AA · .272 ±.048 · R5, plan protects
Mike Jarvis≈ toss-up AAA · .260 ±.016 · R5

+4 more inside the noise of the third

All 8 neighbouring pairs are toss-ups: the gap is inside the 80% range of the difference (both ranges, plus ±.020 when the two come from different levels or methods, from the Double-A checks above). No list gives an ordered call on the bat: the depth chart’s value at the position (glove and grade included), health and scouting decide. Plan starters come from the decisions feed. Third base reopens in 2028, when Isaac Paredes can leave; the plan’s engine rates Duce Gourson the best in-house successor (the Prospect Pipeline maps the succession). The plan’s 40-man carries 2 catchers.

What AAA actually predicts

218 hitters: their 2025 AAA season vs. their 2026 MLB wOBA. Average miss in wOBA, PA-weighted (lower is better); fitted models scored without each player.

AAA contact quality (held out)r .28 .042

Translated, then shrunk (held out)r .21 .043

Guess league average .045

AAA line, translatedr .25 .050

His AAA line as isr .27 .077

The line marks .040: the miss that outcome noise alone produces at these plate appearances, so no method can do much better. The raw AAA line runs .059 high because AAA is a hitters’ league (.335 average wOBA). Above that floor, guessing the league average misses true talent by .020; contact quality cuts that miss by 43%, the translated-then-shrunk line by 30% (a cut under 10% counts as no information, and two within 10 points as about equal). Both add information; contact quality more. On average, each .010 of AAA expected wOBA above the AAA norm is worth .004 in the majors; a AAA-average hitter who gets the call produces about .292 (fit on the 108 who reached 100 MLB PA, the same model says .300: that design kept only the call-ups who stuck).

Rating call-ups in the depth chart

218 hitters, rated the way the depth chart rates players with little MLB record; scored on their 2026 WAR per 600 PA, weighted by PA. Each AAA estimate is made without the player it rates; the 60 / 40 weight was chosen on all 218, so only the nested row is held out end to end

Prospect-grade rule (old depth chart)r .11 · avg 0.6 2.59

AAA contact quality aloner .14 · avg 1.6 2.53

60 / 40 blend (depth chart now; weight chosen on all 218, in-sample)r .14 · avg 1.2 2.48

Blend, weight chosen without himr .13 · avg 1.2 2.49

An average call-up (no information)r .00 · avg 1.2 2.46

Actual average: 1.18 WAR per 600 PA. The line marks 1.99, the miss batting noise alone produces at these plate appearances. The prospect-grade rule rated them about 0.6 wins low; contact quality alone rated them 0.5 high. The depth chart uses 60% contact quality and 40% the grade rule for hitters with 100+ tracked AAA plate appearances, plus the position: the held-out fits chose 55%–65%, though resampling the players puts the best weight anywhere from 35% to 80%. It rates them 1.23 on average against 1.18 actual, and it is no better than assuming an average call-up (its edge over one, 90% range −0.16 to +0.07 WAR/600). 44 of the 218 already had 250+ MLB PA before 2026, so this tests call-ups, not only rookies. One season; re-checked each fall.

Pittsburgh’s upper-minors pitchers

2026 lines (100+ batters faced), translated to the majors and regressed toward his level’s average; ranked by translated FIP, a ranking, not a forecast; players on the Winter Plan’s 26-man are left out (they are in the plan’s thin-record table)

Pitcher	Lvl	Age	Role	BF	K%	→ MLB	BB%	→ MLB	ERA	FIP	Translated FIP (rank)	MiLB Stuff	FV
Noah Murdock40 plan: call-up	AAA	27	RP	144	33.3%	25.0%	14.6%	13.2%	3.71	2.15	4.62	92AAA/A	—
Derek Diamond R5 · plan protects plan: minors	AAA	25	RP	179	21.8%	18.4%	6.2%	9.0%	3.14	3.31	4.80	96AAA/A	40
Brandon Neeck R5	AAA	26	RP	186	31.7%	24.5%	18.3%	15.2%	2.95	3.67	5.02	106AAA	—
Connor Wietgrefe	AAA	24	SP	348	18.7%	16.2%	8.6%	9.7%	3.08	3.93	5.04	100AAA	—
Thomas Harrington40 plan: minors	AAA	24	RP	464	21.3%	18.0%	10.1%	10.6%	6.02	4.18	5.07	96AAA	40
Michael Darrell-Hicks R5	AAA	28	RP	190	27.4%	21.9%	15.3%	13.7%	3.65	3.93	5.09	89AAA/A	—
Hunter Barco40 plan: minors	AAA	25	SP	355	22.5%	18.9%	14.1%	13.3%	3.79	3.80	5.14	99AAA	45
Khristian Curtis40 plan: call-up	AAA	24	SP	147	27.9%	21.9%	15.7%	13.7%	5.18	4.66	5.20	103AAA	45
Beau Burrows FA in Nov?	AAA	29	RP	277	22.4%	18.8%	11.6%	11.7%	3.55	4.92	5.31	98AAA	—
Nick Dombkowski R5	AAA	27	RP	372	20.2%	17.2%	9.7%	10.4%	6.00	5.06	5.36	88AAA	—
CD Pelham FA in Nov?	AAA	31	RP	182	19.8%	17.2%	15.9%	14.0%	3.27	3.80	5.40	103AAA	—
Justin Meis R5	AAA	26	RP	251	20.3%	17.4%	15.9%	14.3%	4.37	4.78	5.56	88AAA	—
Jean Cabrera R5 term ?	AAA	24	SP	140	15.0%	14.6%	15.0%	13.4%	9.32	4.98	5.69	86AAA	45
Antwone Kelly40 plan: call-up	AAA	22	SP	403	17.6%	15.4%	15.1%	14.1%	4.24	5.24	5.79	95AAA	40+
Noah Davis 314 MLB BF FA in Nov?	AAA	29	SP	576	18.9%	16.2%	14.2%	13.6%	6.11	5.38	5.81	85AAA	—
Jarod Bayless FA in Nov?	AA	29	RP	123	26.8%	17.1%	7.3%	12.6%	2.67	2.23	5.84rank	—	—
Tyler Owens R5 term ?	AA	25	RP	210	24.3%	16.0%	9.0%	12.9%	4.40	3.81	6.12rank	—	35+
Michael Walsh R5	AA	25	RP	170	23.5%	15.7%	7.1%	11.9%	5.45	4.33	6.15rank	—	—
Andrew Moore R5	AA	26	RP	110	43.6%	23.8%	22.7%	20.2%	1.71	2.32	6.20rank	103AAA	—
Cy Nielson R5	AA	25	RP	241	23.6%	15.7%	12.9%	15.6%	5.60	3.69	6.32rank	106AAA	35+
Cristhian Tortosa FA in Nov?	AA	27	RP	200	31.0%	19.3%	17.5%	18.6%	5.08	4.13	6.53rank	—	35+
Joshua Loeschorn R5	AA	26	RP	274	20.8%	14.2%	12.0%	14.9%	4.43	4.53	6.54rank	—	—
Dominic Perachi R5	AA	25	SP	153	17.6%	13.0%	11.8%	14.8%	4.42	4.23	6.55rank	—	—
Peyton Stumbo R5	AA	24	SP	562	18.9%	12.8%	9.8%	12.8%	6.23	4.97	6.63rank	—	—
Jaycob Deese R5	AA	26	RP	275	18.6%	13.0%	12.0%	14.9%	7.09	4.72	6.64rank	—	—
Landon Tomkins R5	AA	26	RP	287	16.0%	11.6%	13.6%	16.1%	5.12	4.29	6.67rank	—	—
Jake Shirk	AA	24	RP	258	15.9%	11.7%	10.8%	14.1%	6.95	4.90	6.67rank	—	—
Matt Ager	AA	23	SP	470	15.5%	11.0%	8.5%	11.7%	5.65	5.52	6.80rank	—	40
Seth Hernandez	A+	20	SP	188	36.2%	18.4%	13.3%	17.5%	3.33	4.12	6.93rank	110A	60
Dominic Pipkin FA in Nov?	AA	26	SP	174	23.0%	15.4%	20.1%	20.0%	5.08	4.72	6.97rank	—	—

A ranking, not a forecast: for 94 pitchers, 2025 AAA strikeout-minus-walk rate predicted 2026 MLB K−BB% at only r .17, and AAA Stuff at r .06. Scored the same way on 208 2025 Triple-A arms, translated FIP ran 0.55 high and missed their 2026 MLB FIP by 1.60, against 1.53 for guessing the average (r .18). Double-A and High-A numbers are chained through harsher factors and untested, so they are marked rank. Small samples are pulled toward the average pitcher at their own level, so a hot High-A month doesn’t outrank a full Double-A season. MiLB Stuff pools a season’s tracked pitches (Triple-A and the Florida State League only); the letters say which. MLB average FIP 4.18. The Prospect Pipeline has the development view; Pitch Lab the pitch-by-pitch one.

Translation factors

Rate at the level × factor = major-league equivalent, for 2026 lines. Measured on players with 100+ PA at two adjacent levels in the same season, 2025–26, each season read against its own league, chained down from the majors.

Level	K%	BB%	HR rate	BABIP	Extra-base share	Average hitter: wOBA	→ MLB-equiv.	→ Expected	Pairs
AAA	×1.21	×0.67	×0.69	×0.88	×0.89	.337	.268	.293	213
AA	×1.22	×0.62	×0.53	×0.86	×0.84	.330	.242	.268	183
High-A	×1.32	×0.49	×0.44	×0.81	×0.77	.336	.220	.246	226
Single-A	×1.45	×0.42	×0.37	×0.74	×0.70	.331	.190	—	182

Same-season pairs are players who moved mid-year, and teams promote hot hitters, so these factors run harsh: on the blind test the translated line came in .017 below what the hitters actually did, and about 62% of a translated line’s distance from its level’s average carried over. Expected is what the readiness model makes of an average line at each level: the AAA anchor less the translated gap between levels. Each season is read against its own league: the 2026 lower minors scored far more than 2025’s (Double-A wOBA .303 → .330, homers per PA .020 → .031; Triple-A .335 → .337). Pooled raw, factors put the Triple-A−Double-A gap anywhere from .008 to .024 depending on which season’s pairs measured it; season-matched it is .024–.027 either way (.025 used). It is still the least certain piece: both Double-A checks above ran low. Pitcher factors (K, BB+HBP, HR per batter): AAA ×0.84 / ×0.99 / ×1.31.