Overview / Decision Briefs
What should we decide this winter, and how sure are we?
The modules are where you explore. These are what you’d hand to a GM. Each is a memo with a recommendation, the evidence for it,
the options we weighed, the risks, and what would change our mind. Every figure is computed by the pipeline, and comparison words
are chosen from the numbers they compare, so the memos update when the data does. They all read one record of the Winter Plan’s decisions, and the
build fails if a memo names a player the plan doesn’t have or quotes a different number for the plan’s wins and odds, a player’s status, the payroll gap
or the Rule 5 counts.
Print the packet 9 memos · two printed pages at most each
Next deadline Nov 1–5 Qualifying offer: Brandon Lowe · ≈ in 14 days
Before a possible lockout 8 calls due by Dec 1, in 7 memos
Confidence 0 high · 5 medium · 4 low
Before the CBA expires
Dec 1. A lockout would freeze transactions on Dec 2.
- Nov 1–5 ≈ in 14 days 01Qualifying offer: Brandon Lowe Extend the $23.15M qualifying offer by ≈ Nov 5. Expect him to decline: his market estimate ($30.8M a year for 3 years) beats the offer by $7.6M a year, and 12 of 14 comparable deals cleared it (86%); at the low end of his range ($21.8M a year) he could accept. If he declines, take the pick (about $8.6M net of his bonus); second base then goes to Nick Gonzales. Don't re-sign him above $13.5M a year under today's rules; his market estimate is $30.8M. +1.8 W if he accepts · $23.15M offerFor GM, assistant GMs · 5 options weighed Medium
- Nov 17 in 26 days 02Rule 5 protection Protect Termarr Johnson (2B, AAA, FV 45), Derek Diamond (SIRP, AAA, FV 40) and Keiner Delgado (SS, AA, FV 40) by Nov 17. Expose the rest; the most likely to be taken is Cy Nielson (AAA, risk 0.23; expected loss 0.03 long-term WAR, below the 0.06 that cutting Noah Murdock for a fourth spot would cost; the plan's rule protects at most three). 3 protected of 54 eligibleFor GM, farm director · 3 options weighed Medium
- Nov 17 in 26 days 03Tender or non-tender, and the third catcher Tender everyone except Henry Davis: shop him first, and if nothing comes, release him by Nov 17: the plan's three Rule 5 protections, filed Nov 17, need his spot, and the non-tender deadline (Nov 20) falls after the filing. First line up the third catcher: re-sign Christian Bethancourt to a minor-league deal, before ≈ Nov 5. On the owners' proposed terms the call flips only if the floor money has no other use (tender Henry Davis, decide in spring: +$2.6M); at face value re-signing Christian Bethancourt still holds (+$372K, against −$400K for tendering and deciding in spring). Davis's $1.5M salary · third catcherFor GM, assistant GMs · 3 options weighed Low
- Dec 1 in 40 days 04Spend to the floor Don't sign the list before Dec 1 at today's prices. Under today's rules none of it clears the market price of a win (0.83 wins per $10M against 1.11), and the three would cost $38.2M a year, $4.1M over the gap. No other use the plan measures clears it either: the best use not already in the plan, Jack Flaherty, mid-tier starter, buys 0.98 wins per $10M. If the new CBA sets the owners' floor, spend the $34.0M gap on short deals then: on their terms Jake Bauers, Jack Flaherty and Alex Vesia cost $33.6M a year and the whole list adds +3.2 wins, taking the plan to 84.8 wins and 56% playoff odds. +3.2 W · $38.2M a year at today's pricesFor GM, ownership · 3 options weighed Medium
- Dec 1 in 40 days 05Fix third base Acquire Isaac Paredes (HOU) for Jacob Gonzalez and Jhostynxon Garcia once Houston exercises his $13.35M option (≈ Nov 1–5), and close before Dec 1: +2.6 wins, taking the plan to 81.7 (80% range 70–94) and 44% playoff odds, for $12.6M of 2027 payroll and $16.4M of prospect value. His value is the bat; his glove rates below Jared Triolo's. On price alone the trade is short of the market price of a win (0.90 wins per $10M against 1.11); the case is that nothing else gets its wins: the next option without a draft-pick cost adds 1.0 fewer. He is under control only through 2027: third base reopens for 2028. +2.6 W · $12.6M · $16.4M in prospectsFor GM, pro scouting · 4 options weighed Medium
- Dec 1 in 40 days 06Mitch Keller: keep, trade, or add a starter Keep him for now, medicals first; revisit once he is cleared (he ended 2026 on the 60-day IL). Under today's rules the trade saves $13.3M in 2027 dollars against 1.2 wins over 2027–2028 worth $10.9M: net $2.4M for trading, but a club gains from the terms only if his medicals are clean. With the floor money spent either way (the Free-Agent Board's list measured on each branch, on the owners' proposed terms), keeping him comes to 84.8 wins and trading him 85.0, a toss-up. Adding a mid-tier starter, Jack Flaherty, adds +1.0 to +1.1 wins: his price doesn't beat the market price of a win, so it waits with the floor money. −0.7 W if traded · saves $6.9MFor GM, pitching coordinator · 3 options weighed Low
- Dec 1 in 40 days 07Extension: Paul Skenes Stage it. By mid-November: medical and biomechanics review of the four-seam velocity drop and the arm-angle change (the club's medical data; Keystone has none). If the cause is benign, offer up to $22.6M a year for 5 years before Dec 1, when the CBA expires. If not, go year to year and reopen if his four-seamer averages 97.5 mph or more by May 2027. 5 yr × $22.3M market price · walk-away $219K a year above itFor GM, ownership, medical staff · 4 options weighed Low
Before spring training
Not tied to a transaction deadline, but each needs a call before camp.
- Feb before camp 082027 starter hook and bullpen roles Rotation (Winter Plan): Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller. Two times through for Mitch Keller once his medicals clear. Let Braxton Ashcraft face the order a third time (a toss-up). Let Paul Skenes face it too, pending the review of his velocity drop. Jared Jones: a 22-batter leash (about 81 pitches) after his arm injury, not an open third time; past it, decide by matchup (a toss-up). Give Bubba Chandler development innings on a 22-batter leash (about 82 pitches), once through the top of the order a third time, at about 1.0 ± 1.2 runs against a two-times-through hook (a toss-up); the goal is first two passes at .306 xwOBA or better, not a third-time skill, pending the review of his velocity drop. Ladder: Mason Montgomery and Yohan Ramírez in the late innings (within noise of each other); Evan Sisk and Luke Weaver setting up (within noise of each other). Move Evan Sisk into the leverage ladder. Move Isaac Mattson out of it. ≈3 runs (≈0.3 W)For manager, pitching coach, GM · 3 options weighed Medium
- Feb before camp 092027 ABS challenge policy Keep challenging as the staff does now, with the break-even card as the written rule so the old grid isn't used: catchers own the defensive challenges; challenge a call when you're at least as sure as its count's break-even: 6%–32% with both challenges left before the 7th, 13%–53% with the last one before the 7th, 3%–17% from the 7th inning on. Early in the game, batters with the last challenge hold 0-0 and 0-1 through the 2nd and 1-1 through the 1st, unless the call is clear. No green lists. Against how clubs already challenge, the card is a toss-up (≈0 runs a season, 80% range −0.04 to +0.05, inside the plan's 1.9-run toss-up line). It would have held back none of Pittsburgh's 196 second-half challenges. Don't go back to the old count grid: in the forward test it cost about 9.4 runs per club a season, late-game exception included. ≈0 runs vs. how clubs challenged; the old grid −9.4 per clubFor manager, bench coach, catchers · 3 options weighed Low
Why memos: in a front office, analysis that doesn’t end in a decision doesn’t get used. Each memo names one owner, one call, and the evidence that would reverse it, so the R&D team can be held to its record, and so can I.