Tender or non-tender, and the third catcher
The question
Which arbitration-eligible players do we tender, and who is the third catcher?
Recommendation
Confidence LowTender everyone except Henry Davis: shop him first, and if nothing comes, release him by Nov 17: the plan's three Rule 5 protections, filed Nov 17, need his spot, and the non-tender deadline (Nov 20) falls after the filing. First line up the third catcher: re-sign Christian Bethancourt to a minor-league deal, before ≈ Nov 5. On the owners' proposed terms the call flips only if the floor money has no other use (tender Henry Davis, decide in spring: +$2.6M); at face value re-signing Christian Bethancourt still holds (+$372K, against −$400K for tendering and deciding in spring).
Decided together with “Rule 5 protection” and “2027 ABS challenge policy”; all read the same Winter Plan.
A judgment call: 5 options sit within 0.2 wins' worth ($1.8M) of the best under today's rules; the pick is the best of them on value and needs no 40-man spot. Every other arbitration player's value covers his salary.
Evidence
- 10 arbitration-eligible players; projected 2027 salaries total $33.3M (Keystone's arbitration model). The closest calls:
- Henry Davis: $1.5M salary against $139K of value as third catcher on today's roster, plus $618K of upside in later arbitration years: net −$756K.
- Yohan Ramírez: $2.4M salary against $4.1M of value in the bullpen on the plan's roster, plus $1.6M of upside in later arbitration years: net +$3.3M.
- Jared Triolo: $1.9M salary against $6.0M of value off the bench on the plan's roster ($5.7M as a starter on today's), plus $700K of upside in later arbitration years: net +$4.8M.
- The third catcher: with Henry Davis gone, the 40-man has Endy Rodríguez and Rafael Flores Jr.; Endy Rodríguez ended 2026 on the 60-day IL (Left hip inflammation). The plan assumes he is ready for spring; that is a medical call we can't see. 11 of 46 hitters who ended a season on the 60-day IL opened the next on it.
- If Endy Rodríguez isn't ready, on the plan's engine: with Derek Berg and Christian Bethancourt catching the rest, the healthy roster projects 82.0 (the plan's 81.7 counts those 137 PA at replacement level); he opens on the IL 81.9 (−0.09), out for the season 81.6 (−0.42). From the plan's 81.7, with the Triple-A catchers at replacement level: 81.4 (−0.32) and 80.8 (−0.92).
- Third-catcher options, net value under today's rules (on the owners' proposed terms: with the floor money free / at face value): nobody added (Derek Berg next) −$61K ($0 / −$78K); tender Davis −$756K (+$2.6M / −$666K); tender, decide in spring −$427K (+$2.6M / −$400K); Christian Bethancourt (minor-league deal) +$450K (+$449K / +$372K); Jose Herrera (minor-league deal) −$61K ($0 / −$78K); Gary Sánchez (free agent) −$1.7M (+$822K / −$1.5M).
- Christian Bethancourt was outrighted Sep 7, 2026 and has major-league time since 2013, so he can likely elect free agency after the season (an estimate). No 40-man spot or major-league salary unless he is added. If he signs elsewhere, the next options are to re-sign Jose Herrera to a minor-league deal (−$0.1M net) or tender Henry Davis and decide in spring (−$0.4M net); Rafael Flores Jr. and Derek Berg alone are 2 catchers not on an injured list, short of the three the plan needs.
- The plan files three Rule 5 protections on Nov 17, and the 40-man reaches 40 then only with Henry Davis gone, so he has to go before the Rule 5 filing, by trade or release; the non-tender deadline (Nov 20) falls after it. If Lowe accepts the qualifying offer or a free agent signs before the filing, Noah Murdock has to be cut too.
Options considered
| Option | Upside | Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Release Henry Davis; re-sign Christian Bethancourt to a minor-league dealRecommended | No 40-man spot; a catcher with major-league time behind Endy Rodríguez | He can sign elsewhere first; then the plan's rule (the best value within the toss-up line, then the fewest 40-man spots) takes re-signing Jose Herrera instead (−$61K under today's rules, no 40-man spot) |
| Tender Henry Davis and keep him as the third catcher | Keeps a known third catcher (on the owners' proposed terms +$2.6M with the floor money free, −$666K at face value) | $1.5M and a 40-man spot (−$756K under today's rules); keeping him means cutting Noah Murdock before the Rule 5 filing, since the protections need his spot |
| Tender Davis and decide in spring | Waits for Endy Rodríguez's medicals | Termination pay if released late in camp; −$427K under today's rules; keeping him means cutting Noah Murdock before the Rule 5 filing, since the protections need his spot |
Risks
- Endy Rodríguez has four injured-list stints since 2025; with two 40-man catchers, a second injury means a call-up.
- The arbitration model can miss on relievers, whose awards follow saves and holds.
What would change our mind
If Christian Bethancourt signs elsewhere first, the plan's rule (the best value within the toss-up line, then the fewest 40-man spots) takes re-signing Jose Herrera instead (−$61K under today's rules, no 40-man spot). If Endy Rodríguez isn't cleared by Nov 17, reprice the catcher options with him out: they weigh a 24% chance that he opens the season on the IL.