What does each model know, and what can it not see?
Pitch Sequencing & Tunnels
Trajectories rebuilt from Statcast kinematics, and a placebo test that separates the pitch from the pair: beyond the pitch, the order adds only a sliver.
Decision: Whether pitch order deserves coaching time (it doesn’t, on the evidence), which pitches track a pitcher’s other pitches (a pitch-design input), whether to coach him to be less predictable, and what an opposing pitcher tends to throw. Read the card Call-Up ReadinessMinor-League Translations
Measured translation factors by level, a tested AAA-to-MLB readiness model, and the depth chart’s rating for players with little MLB record.
Decision: Who is ready to help in the majors, and how much to believe a minor-league season. Read the card Free-Agent BoardFree-Agent Market
A contract model fit on last winter’s real deals, plus each free agent’s wins added to the Winter Plan’s roster.
Decision: Who to pursue this winter, at what price, and how far the budget goes. Read the card 2026 Season ReviewSeason Review
Four records for every club, each one step closer to the scoreboard, so talent and luck can be told apart.
Decision: How much of last season to believe when planning the next one. Read the card Running GameRunning Game
Break-even steal rates from measured run expectancy and from the chance of scoring once, official steal records regressed with a measured prior, and calls that are forward-tested.
Decision: Who gets the green light, who to send when one run decides it, when to bunt, and which of our pitchers opponents target. Read the card Team Defense · Fielding LabExpected Outs & Defense Map
The chance an average defense turns each ball in play into an out; a team’s outs above that, mapped by zone.
Decision: Where the defense leaks outs, whether it’s personnel or positioning, and which pitchers it costs. Read the card Winter PlanWinter Plan
Every brief’s recommendation applied to one 2027 roster, re-sorted by the depth chart and checked for collisions.
Decision: Whether the winter’s recommendations still work when they are all done together, and what to do when an outcome we don’t control (a qualifying offer, a trade) goes the other way. Read the card Roster Builder · Winter Plan · Free-Agent Board · 2027 OutlookDepth Chart & Playing Time
Fielding at every position a player can play, the lineup that maximizes value, and playing time from each player’s role, held to one season for the team.
Decision: Who plays where, how much each player plays, and what an addition is worth to this roster rather than in the abstract. Read the card Catching · Defense · Contract StudioCatcher Framing (Challenge Era)
Called strikes above expectation, valued by count, and re-measured for the ABS challenge system.
Decision: What a catcher’s glove is worth in 2027, now that hitters can challenge calls, for tenders, trades and projections. Read the card Pitch Lab · Opportunity FinderKeystone Stuff
Pitch quality from physical traits alone, graded so 100 is that season’s league average and 10 points is one standard deviation.
Decision: Which pitches to add, cut, or reshape, and which pitchers the market undervalues. Read the card Pitch Lab · DevelopmentKeystone Location & Pitching
Location grades where pitches were thrown for the count, on one height-based zone; Pitching combines that with Stuff. Each season is centered on its own league.
Decision: Whether a pitcher’s problem is the pitches or where he throws them, and what to work on first. Read the card Development TrackerDevelopment Tracker & Plans
Statistically tested changes in each player’s tracking data, and short plans built only from model outputs.
Decision: Which players are improving or slipping, and what each should work on this winter. Read the card Health & WorkloadHealth Warning Signs
In-season warning signs, each tested by role against every injured-list placement since 2024 before it’s trusted.
Decision: When a pitcher’s data should trigger a check with the training staff. Read the card Matchup EngineMatchup Engine
Pitch-type profiles for every pitcher and hitter plus the league platoon split, combined into a calibrated edge.
Decision: Which reliever faces which hitter when the choice is close (the seventh-inning lefty, the pinch hitter), and how our 2027 lineup lines up against a rival’s staff. Read the card Lineup LabLineup Run Model
An exact Markov model of a nine-inning game, fed by regressed outcome rates by pitcher hand.
Decision: Who starts and in what order against right- and left-handed pitching. Read the card 2027 OutlookPlayoff Odds & Win Curve
20,000 simulated seasons from each club’s controlled roster, with measured uncertainty.
Decision: How much a win is worth to Pittsburgh this winter, and what a roster move does to October. Read the card Prospect PipelineProspect Pipeline
Every Pittsburgh minor leaguer scored against his own league and his age for the level, with the trade value and plan calls the rest of the site uses.
Decision: Who to push a level, who is stalling, whom to protect from the Rule 5 draft, and what each prospect is worth in a trade. Read the card Draft ValueDraft Value Curve
Control-years WAR by draft slot from the 2005–2016 drafts, priced against today’s slots.
Decision: What a pick is worth in trades and compensation, and where draft money goes furthest. Read the card Hitting LabSwing Decisions & Contact Value
Splits every hitter’s run value into what he swings at (decision value per 100 pitches, about half of it runs) and what happens when he does (contact value per 100 swings, in runs).
Decision: Whether a hitter’s problem is approach (what he swings at) or bat-to-ball (what happens when he does), especially by pitcher handedness. Read the card Park EffectsPNC Park Fit
Savant park factors by batting side, shrunk for noise, applied to each player’s outcome rates over half his games, with a spray-aware home-run factor.
Decision: How much PNC Park adds to or takes from a hitter or pitcher Pittsburgh might acquire or keep, and what it does to the Winter Plan’s lineup and staff. Read the card Rival IntelRival Scouting Splits
Expected run value by pitch type in two layers, the club’s level and each pitch against that level, with reliabilities measured within the season and across seasons.
Decision: How good each NL Central staff and lineup is, which pitch to sit on against a staff, and how much of the 2026 picture is leaving. Read the card ABS Challenge CoachABS Challenge Policy
A break-even card by count and game state on the state-dependent cost of a failed challenge, with role success rates against it and a first-half → second-half forward test.
Decision: Who may challenge, and how sure they must be in each count and game state, set before the season. The signal comes from the player on the field, without dugout help (our reading of the 2026 rules), so the policy has to be simple enough to carry in his head. Read the card Contract StudioProjections & Surplus Value
Projected WAR × market $/WAR, minus salary, discounted. Control years are options the club can walk away from.
Decision: Extensions, qualifying offers, non-tenders, and trades, under the current CBA or the owners’ cap-and-floor proposal. Read the card Opportunity FinderOpportunity Scores
Outside players ranked by the wins each adds to the Winter Plan’s roster; skill signals explain why he’s listed, computed checks test them, and neither sets the rank.
Decision: Which outside players deserve a scout’s time and a call this winter. Read the card Bullpen StrategyHook & Leverage
An empirical leverage index plus a times-through-the-order penalty adjusted for who is pitching and who is hitting.
Decision: When the starter should come out, and which reliever should get the biggest spots. Read the card Positional DepthPositional Depth
Every club’s controlled major leaguers and prospects placed in 21 slots for 2027–31, each season graded against the expected WAR a typical regular brings there.
Decision: Where the organization is deep enough to trade from, where it will be bare and must buy, draft or develop, and which clubs fit as trade partners at each spot. Read the card