Winter Plan
Every brief’s recommendation applied to one 2027 roster, re-sorted by the depth chart and checked for collisions.
What it predicts
No single target: a consistency layer. It reports wins, playoff odds, payroll and the 40-man for each combination of outcomes.
Inputs
- Pittsburgh’s 40-man after pending free agents leave (statsapi), with 60-day IL players flagged
- Each brief’s recommendation as roster, payroll and 40-man effects (non-tenders, Rule 5 protections, the third-base route, the qualifying offer, Keller)
- Projections, fielding by position and playing time by role (depth chart model); 2027 salaries from Contract Studio
Method
- Branches for outcomes we don’t control: Lowe accepts or declines the QO; Keller kept or traded; the third-base route (in-house or the best affordable acquisition)
- For each scenario: the best lineup by position, then any swap that adds at least 0.2 wins; smaller gaps are reported as toss-ups, not acted on
- 40-man overflow is resolved explicitly: the lowest-value players off the 26-man are named as the ones who must go
- Every Decision Brief reads its lineup, rotation, 40-man math and payroll from the plan, and the build fails if a brief names a player the plan doesn’t have
How well it works
Computed by the pipeline from the data on this site
- Consistency check (runs at every build)
- 0 conflicts across 9 briefs and 8 scenarios The build fails if a brief names a player the plan doesn’t have. Every scenario is also checked for one starter per position, the 40-man limit and the 26-man shape.
- Checks on the recommended plan
- ✓ One starter at every position✓ 40-man: 39 of 40! 40-man at each deadline, in transaction order (tightest case): at most 40; Release Henry Davis before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17); the non-tender deadline (Nov 20) is only the latest date! 2 catchers on the 26-man; 4 available, 3 not on an injured list today (Rafael Flores Jr., Derek Berg (non-roster), Christian Bethancourt (non-roster)); Endy Rodríguez ended 2026 on the 60-day IL (11 of 46 hitters who did that in 2024 or 2025 opened the next season on the IL); 144 PA at catcher left to replacement level on the 40-man✓ 26-man: 13 hitters, 13 pitchers✓ Playing time: 6,102 PA and 1,436 IP, one season; 620 PA and 236 IP left to replacement level✓ Shortstop cover on the bench: Jared Triolo. Konnor Griffin projects 369 of 678 PA at shortstop. The rest: Jared Triolo 309 PA, 0 PA at replacement level! Jake Mangum gets 476 PA off the bench (RF 256, CF 220), more than 6 of the nine starters, though the Hitting Lab says to limit his exposure against both hands: the starters' projected PA at CF, RF leave him that time. A better bat for that share is a free-agent question (see the Free-Agent Board)! Health, all 26 on the 26-man and the protected prospects: 4 warnings (Endy Rodríguez, Bubba Chandler, Mitch Keller, Termarr Johnson); 18 more with injured-list history since March 2025✓ Option years: everyone the plan keeps off the 26-man has an option year left (estimate); unknown for Lake Bachar! 2027 payroll ≈ $139M (luxury-tax basis); on the owners' proposed terms $137M, $34M under their floor
What it can't see
- Medical: players coming off the 60-day IL are assumed ready for spring.
- Trade partners: an affordable target is one that fits our rule, not one a club has agreed to move.
- Club preferences beyond a 3-run move cost (clubhouse roles, development plans for young players).
How we'd measure impact
- Briefs that contradict each other: zero, enforced at every build
- Decisions graded against the plan they were made under (Track Record ledger)