Rule 5 protection

For: GM, farm director
Decide by: Nov 17
Prepared: Oct 22, 2026
Data: Sep 27, 2026

The question

Which of the 54 Rule 5-eligible players get 40-man spots by Nov 17?

Recommendation

Confidence Medium

Protect Termarr Johnson (2B, AAA, FV 45), Derek Diamond (SIRP, AAA, FV 40) and Keiner Delgado (SS, AA, FV 40) by Nov 17. Expose the rest; the most likely to be taken is Cy Nielson (AAA, risk 0.23; expected loss 0.03 long-term WAR, below the 0.06 that cutting Noah Murdock for a fourth spot would cost; the plan's rule protects at most three).

Decided together with “Tender or non-tender, and the third catcher” and “Fix third base”; all read the same Winter Plan.

A clear lean: each protected player's expected loss if exposed is larger than the spot he takes. The pick risks are ordered, not calibrated, and a lockout could cancel the draft's major-league phase.

Staff response

Evidence

Who is eligible: 54 total eligible, organization players off the 40-man (CBA rule: draft or signing date and age), 33 of them at Double-A or Triple-A; 14 first-year eligible and 5 whose first year our data can't place. 15 more are likely minor-league free agents and leave before the draft unless re-signed; 2 have signing dates our data can't place (Jhonny Severino, Jeter Martinez).
Termarr Johnson (2B, AAA, FV 45): pick risk 0.53, so exposing him loses 0.85 long-term WAR; protecting him fills an open spot today, so it costs no one; with the floor list's 2 cuts it costs Lake Bachar (break-even risk 0.07). On the minor-league full-season IL since Aug 18; he stays in Triple-A until his medicals clear. Added to the 40-man Nov 17, he would be kept out of club facilities and club-supervised rehab during a lockout, as 40-man players were in 2021–22 (CBA knowledge, not in our data): set his rehab plan before Dec 2.
Derek Diamond (SIRP, AAA, FV 40): pick risk 0.46, so exposing him loses 0.18 long-term WAR; protecting him fills an open spot today, so it costs no one; with the floor list's 2 cuts it costs Lake Bachar (break-even risk 0.27); the call flips only past 3 cuts.
Keiner Delgado (SS, AA, FV 40): pick risk 0.25, so exposing him loses 0.15 long-term WAR; protecting him fills an open spot today, so it costs no one; with the floor list's 2 cuts it costs Lake Bachar (break-even risk 0.19); the call flips only past 2 cuts. At AA: below Triple-A.
Most likely taken among the exposed: Cy Nielson (SIRP, AAA, risk 0.23). Next: Brandon Neeck (AAA, 0.21), Justin Meis (AAA, 0.21), Landon Tomkins (AAA, 0.21). Risk is ordered, not calibrated.
Worth a 40-man spot for 2027 itself: Mitch Jebb (+0.11 wins if added, a toss-up; on the IL Apr 28–Jul 24); Jean Cabrera (+0.07 wins if added, a toss-up).
40-man count at each deadline, in transaction order: Oct 21, 39 (the roster snapshot); ≈ Nov 5, 38 (60-day IL players count again; pending free agents come off); before Nov 17, 37 (Release Henry Davis early, so the protections fit); Nov 17, 40 (Rule 5 protection filed); by Dec 1, 39 (Acquire Isaac Paredes for Jacob Gonzalez + Jhostynxon Garcia). Cut order if space is needed: Noah Murdock, Lake Bachar and Tyler Callihan.
First-year eligible and exposed: Landon Tomkins (RHP, AAA, unranked); Mitch Jebb (OF, AAA, unranked); Connor Oliver (LHP, AA, unranked); Garrett McMillan (RHP, AA, unranked); Peyton Stumbo (RHP, AA, unranked).
If a lockout starts Dec 2 and cancels the Rule 5 draft's major-league phase, as the 2021–22 lockout did, a protection filed Nov 17 buys nothing this winter, and 40-man players were kept out of club facilities during that lockout (CBA knowledge; our data can't confirm either). The filing comes before anyone knows.

Options considered

Option	Upside	Downside
Protect Termarr Johnson, Derek Diamond and Keiner DelgadoRecommended	Keeps the players a club would most likely take	Uses 3 spots on the 40-man, which reaches 40 at the filing
Also protect Mitch Jebb	+0.11 wins in 2027	Needs a cut (Noah Murdock); a toss-up
Protect by grade alone	A simple rule	Protects Jean Cabrera (AA, risk 0.09) and Axiel Plaz (A+, risk 0.04) instead of Derek Diamond (risk 0.46) and Keiner Delgado (risk 0.25)

Risks

Cy Nielson is the most likely exposed player to go.
A lockout from Dec 2 could cancel the major-league phase of the draft (as in 2021–22); the filing comes before anyone knows (CBA knowledge, not in our data).

What would change our mind

If the Rule 5 draft is cancelled under a lockout, the protections matter less. The plan's 40-man is at 40 at the filing (Nov 17), with Henry Davis released before it rather than on the non-tender date (Nov 20): if Lowe accepts the qualifying offer or a free agent signs before then, Noah Murdock has to be cut before the filing too.