Overview / Decision Briefs
All briefs
← Spend to the floor Mitch Keller: keep, trade, or add a starter →
Keystone Decision brief
No. 05 / 09

Fix third base

For
GM, pro scouting
Decide by
Dec 1
Prepared
Oct 22, 2026
Data
Sep 27, 2026

The question

How do we fix third base, and what does the fix do to second base and to 2028?

Recommendation

Confidence Medium

Acquire Isaac Paredes (HOU) for Jacob Gonzalez and Jhostynxon Garcia once Houston exercises his $13.35M option (≈ Nov 1–5), and close before Dec 1: +2.6 wins, taking the plan to 81.7 (80% range 70–94) and 44% playoff odds, for $12.6M of 2027 payroll and $16.4M of prospect value. His value is the bat; his glove rates below Jared Triolo's. On price alone the trade is short of the market price of a win (0.90 wins per $10M against 1.11); the case is that nothing else gets its wins: the next option without a draft-pick cost adds 1.0 fewer. He is under control only through 2027: third base reopens for 2028.

Decided together with “Qualifying offer: Brandon Lowe” and “Rule 5 protection”; all read the same Winter Plan.

A clear lean: he adds 1.0 wins more than the next realistic option without a draft-pick cost. The risks: his surplus is −$1.9M under today's rules (+$8.1M with the floor money free, −$5.2M at face value on the owners' proposed terms), and his glove at third reads differently by the two fielding measures.

Staff response

Evidence

  1. The fix: Isaac Paredes adds +2.6 wins over the in-house plan, Jared Triolo at third (79.1 wins, 80% range 67–91, 34% playoff odds): 81.7 wins (80% range 70–94), 44% playoff odds with him. The gloves (Fielding Lab, regressed, runs a season): Jared Triolo +3.6 at third against his −1.4, −5.0 runs (≈−0.5 wins), so his value is the bat.
  2. Nick Gonzales is off third in every branch of the plan; he loses second only if Lowe stays and Isaac Paredes arrives (Lowe at second; Gonzales to a utility role or traded), and keeps it if Lowe plays first (the qualifying-offer brief has those branches). If Lowe accepts the qualifying offer, Isaac Paredes still adds +2.6 wins (against Lowe at third, a position with no record: the plan's flag).
  3. His option: his 2027 is a $13.35M club option Houston decides ≈ Nov 1–5. If Houston declines it he isn't a free agent: at about 5 years, 160 days of service (5.160) he stays under Houston's control through arbitration, and reaches free agency only if non-tendered (Nov 20). Keystone's reading of the current CBA; our data can't confirm it. RosterResource notes the option “converts to mutual option with top 10 MVP finish”; the 2026 MVP vote isn't in our data, so confirm it is still Houston's call.
  4. Health, two seasons: Injured-list stints since March 2025: Jul 20, 2025–Sep 19, 2025 (60-day IL, right hamstring strain). In 2026: 659 MLB plate appearances, no injured-list stint. The route rule bars only an unhealthy 2026, so the earlier 60-day stint is a medical flag for his physical, not a bar.
  5. The sequence: club options and qualifying offers ≈ Nov 1–5; Lowe answers ≈ Nov 11–15; Rule 5 protection is filed Nov 17; the CBA expires Dec 1 and a lockout would freeze trades from ≈ Dec 2. He adds +2.6 wins if Lowe leaves and +2.6 if he stays, so the trade needn't wait for Lowe's answer; it must close before the CBA expires.
  6. The package: Jacob Gonzalez and Jhostynxon Garcia ($16.4M against $16.0M needed; frees one 40-man spot after he takes his), chosen for its trade fit over the package rule's default ($361K less; better for both clubs, Houston's side +0.26 and Pittsburgh's +0.08): Houston's shortstop and center field needs run 0.59 and 0.64 in their first seasons (other clubs 0.28 and 0.17), Pittsburgh's 0.07 and 0.34.
  7. His glove at third, two ways: the engine's fielding rating is −1.4 runs a season, but Keystone's zone model had him at −20.7 outs above expected in 2026 (≈−15.9 runs, −6.4 per 100 balls; +4.1 in 2024, −4.2 in 2025), where Pittsburgh's third basemen were −27.5 outs above expected (≈−21.1 runs; −6.4 per 100 balls, 30th of 30). The zone figure isn't in the wins.
  8. Park and handedness: PNC takes about 3.6 runs per 600 PA from his batted-ball profile against a neutral park (−0.35 wins over his 562 PA), which the wins above leave out; with every hitter's park fit counted on both rosters (the Park page's plan branches), the edge over the in-house plan moves from +2.60 to +2.26 wins, and the call holds. He bats R; Lowe bats L, so the plan's lineup runs 5 right, 3 left and 1 switch.
  9. Who loses a spot: Jared Triolo moves to the bench (415 PA on the plan, 309 at short and 106 at third); Termarr Johnson stays in Triple-A until his medicals clear (on the minor-league full-season IL since Aug 18). Cleared, he would take the bench spot from Ronny Simon and change the plan by +0.04 wins (that roster: 81.7, 80% range 70–94): a toss-up, so his health and development decide.
  10. Put to the floor memo's test, the trade is short of the market price of a win (0.90 wins per $10M against 1.11, 0.62 wins below what $29.0M buys at that rate). Over its one year of control its surplus is −$1.9M under today's rules. What separates the trade is that nothing else gets its wins, while the Free-Agent Board's next lists add about what its floor list does.

Options considered

OptionUpsideDownside
Acquire Isaac ParedesRecommended+2.6 wins, from the bat (his glove rates 5.0 runs a season below Jared Triolo's)$16.4M of prospects; one year of control; surplus −$1.9M under today's rules
In-house: Jared Triolo at thirdNo acquisition cost (79.1 wins); the better glove (+3.6 runs a season)2.6 fewer wins; 10 points lower playoff odds
Sign Jazz Chisholm Jr. instead (4 yr × $32.6M)+2.5 wins; no prospects; covers 2028About $5.8M of draft value net of the bonus (his qualifying offer); surplus −$33.0M under today's rules
Cheaper free agent: Edmundo Sosa (2 yr × $8.5M)+0.8 wins; no prospects or pick1.8 fewer wins than the trade

Risks

  • Houston may decline the option; he then stays Houston's through arbitration (Keystone's reading of the CBA), so the trade still runs through Houston.
  • His glove: the wins use the Fielding Lab's −1.4; if the zone model's −20.7 outs in 2026 is closer to his level, he costs more at third than the wins assume.
  • Prospect values are FanGraphs' preseason grades; an updated scouting read on the prospects sent moves the price.
  • A trade not closed by Dec 1 waits out a lockout.

What would change our mind

If Houston declines his option and won't trade him before Dec 1, sign the best free-agent fallback (Jazz Chisholm Jr., or Edmundo Sosa for less); if Lowe accepts the qualifying offer, keep the trade and settle Gonzales's role.

Notes and method

  1. The free-agent route at second base instead (Gonzales stays at third, no trade, the prospects stay): Mauricio Dubón (2 yr × $14.4M) +0.4 wins over the in-house plan (79.5, −2.2 against the trade); Edmundo Sosa (2 yr × $8.5M) +0.1 wins over the in-house plan (79.2, −2.4 against the trade); Gleyber Torres (2 yr × $7.5M) +0.1 wins over the in-house plan (79.2, −2.5 against the trade).
  2. The trade fit, from the depth model's numbers: Jacob Gonzalez (SS, FV 35+, arrives 2027): Houston’s shortstop need 0.59 over 2027–29 (covered 2027, thin 2028–29), the other clubs 0.28; Pittsburgh’s shortstop: no surplus (other clubs 0.02), need 0.07 (below the bar 2027–28, covered 2029; other clubs 0.28, only need above theirs counts), −0.02 net. Fit +0.18. Jhostynxon Garcia (CF, FV 45, arrives 2027): Houston’s center field need 0.64 over 2027–29 (thin 2027–29), the other clubs 0.17; Pittsburgh’s center field: surplus 0.17 (other clubs 0.04), need 0.34 (below the bar 2027, covered 2028, thin 2029; other clubs 0.17, only need above theirs counts), −0.04 net. Fit +0.27. Package fit +0.25, value-weighted: +0.44 from Houston’s needs and −0.04 from Pittsburgh’s depth, each net of the other clubs. Chosen for fit over the rule’s default package, Jason DeCaro + Hunter Barco ($16.1M, fit +0.06): $0.4M more, 3% over the $16.0M ask (the cap is 10%), for 0.19 more fit (the margin is 0.15). Each club’s side against the default: Houston’s +0.18 → +0.44 (+0.26), Pittsburgh’s −0.12 → −0.04 (+0.08); a switch needs neither side lower and one up 0.25 or more.
  3. The price rule: his surplus value or half his 2027 value, whichever is larger, plus 10%; Pittsburgh's top 3 prospects stay off the table.
  4. The trade's wins are +10 points of playoff odds (about 4.0 a win, the steep part of the curve), but every use of money gets that slope.
  5. 2028: he is a free agent after 2027, so third base reopens. Best in-house answer today: Duce Gourson (AAA, FV 45, 1.5 WAR per 600 PA at third on the plan's engine), then Jared Triolo (0.9), Murf Gray (0.8). Nick Gonzales's 2028 arbitration estimate is $5.3M.
  6. Alternatives on the same roster: Ezequiel Duran (TEX, trade) +1.6 wins; Ernie Clement (TOR, trade) +0.8 wins; Jazz Chisholm Jr. (free agent, 4 yr × $32.6M) +2.5, and signing him costs about $5.8M of draft value net of the bonus (a qualifying-offer free agent); Edmundo Sosa (free agent, 2 yr × $8.5M) +0.8; Eugenio Suárez (free agent, 2 yr × $6.7M) +0.7; Alec Bohm (free agent, 2 yr × $5.5M) +0.6.
  7. Best affordable acquisition a club would plausibly trade: he plays third in the plan, 2027 salary ≤ $15M, talent cost ≤ $30M, ≥ 0.5 wins over the in-house plan, a healthy 2026 (100+ MLB plate appearances, not on the 60-day IL; a 60-day stint in 2025 is shown as a medical flag, not a bar), and not a player with no-trade rights, a star, just signed or extended, a young core player, a contender’s regular, or someone Pittsburgh traded away in the last two years. The pick adds the most 2027 wins; within 0.3 wins, the longer control wins the tie.
Keystone is an independent portfolio project. It is not affiliated with Major League Baseball or any club. Data: MLB Stats API, Baseball Savant, FanGraphs. Used under their terms for individual, non-commercial use.