Extension: Paul Skenes
The question
Should we offer Paul Skenes an extension before the CBA expires, and on what terms?
Recommendation
Confidence LowStage it. By mid-November: medical and biomechanics review of the four-seam velocity drop and the arm-angle change (the club's medical data; Keystone has none). If the cause is benign, offer up to $22.6M a year for 5 years before Dec 1, when the CBA expires. If not, go year to year and reopen if his four-seamer averages 97.5 mph or more by May 2027.
Decided together with “2027 starter hook and bullpen roles”; both read the same Winter Plan.
A judgment call: the gap between the market price and our walk-away is smaller than the price model's typical miss, and a velocity haircut flips it.
Evidence
- Velocity: his four-seamer averaged 98.8 → 98.2 → 96.8 mph (2024–2025–2026), −2.0 mph since 2024, while his four-seam arm angle went 24° → 24° → 27°. Keystone has no medical or biomechanics data, so the cause is the club's call.
- Pitch Lab: Keystone Stuff 104 in 2026, −10 since 2025 (−11 on the held-out model), about 9.4 runs at stake; the Pitch Lab flags the drop.
- The deal zone at 5 years: comparable deals price him at $22.3M a year against a walk-away of $22.6M, a gap of $219K inside the price model's typical miss of $3.7M, so there is no reliable negotiating room.
- The walk-away is a range, $19.6M–$25.6M a year at 5 years; it moves most with attrition a year ($20.2M–$25.3M); arbitration salaries ($20.4M–$24.8M); $ per WAR ($21.2M–$25.6M).
- With a 5% cut to his projection for the velocity, the best length is 4 years and the deal loses $1.7M.
- Under the owners' proposed floor (longest deal 6 years): at face value 5 years gains $831K; if the floor money has no other use, 6 years gains $21.2M.
- Innings basis: the plan gives him 144 IP and 4.0 WAR in 2027; his own projection is 4.8 WAR over a full season. Losing him would cost the plan 3.5 wins.
- With options: 3 guaranteed years (2027–2029) plus club options for 2030–2031 at $22.3M (the plain 5-year deal's market AAV) raise our walk-away on the guaranteed years to $26.4M (plain 3 years: $14.9M against a $16.3M market price): the club pays the option years only if he is still healthy, worth $10.5M over guaranteeing them at the same price. What he would accept for this structure is unknown.
- The medical review is worth $236K–$660K on money at P(benign) 25%–75% (Keystone has no estimate of it): extending only on a benign finding gains $944K at 5 years, while a 5% velocity haircut would make the same deal lose $2.6M.
- Henry Davis caught 2,797 of Paul Skenes's 2,890 pitches in 2026 (97%); the plan's catchers caught 0 (Flores Jr.), 93 (Rodríguez), 0 (Berg), 0 (Bethancourt). The third-catcher call ends that pairing; it isn't counted in the wins.
Options considered
| Option | Upside | Downside |
|---|---|---|
| 4 years at up to $20.0M | Market $19.8M: $545K of surplus | Buys fewer free-agent years |
| 5 years at up to $22.6MRecommended | Market $22.3M: $944K of surplus | Long money on a pitcher whose velocity is down |
| 6 years at up to $23.8M | Market $24.2M: −$1.8M of surplus | Long money on a pitcher whose velocity is down |
| Go year to year | Keeps the arbitration discount; no long-term injury exposure | He can leave after 2029 |
Risks
- A lockout from Dec 2 freezes talks with 40-man players (CBA knowledge, as in 2021–22); a new CBA can change every input here.
- A UCL injury would turn a long deal deeply negative.
- The walk-away rests on Keystone's arbitration path and $9.0M a win; the price model extrapolates above its largest comparable.
- Not modelled: a qualifying offer or a trade in his last control year (2029): either would add value to going year to year, so the status quo would rise and the walk-away fall; Keystone doesn't price them.
What would change our mind
If the medical review finds a benign cause, move fast at up to $22.6M for 5 years; if not, reopen when his four-seamer averages 97.5 mph or more.