Termarr Johnson
- Winter Plan adds him to the 40-man Nov 17; call-up depth · 101 PA · 0.2 WAR in the role
This winter
What the Winter Plan does with Johnson: its decisions feed, the dated moves and the briefs
The plan adds him to the 40-man on Nov 17 to protect him from the Rule 5 draft; call-up depth · 101 PA · 0.2 WAR in the role.
- Nov 17 Add Termarr Johnson (2B, AAA) to the 40-manRule 5 protection.
Rule 5 pick risk 0.53 (the plan’s ordering, not a probability); expected loss if exposed 0.85 WAR. On the minor-league full-season IL since Aug 18; he stays in Triple-A until his medicals clear. Added to the 40-man Nov 17, he would be kept out of club facilities and club-supervised rehab during a lockout, as 40-man players were in 2021–22 (CBA knowledge, not in our data): set his rehab plan before Dec 2.
- Rule 5 protectiondue Nov 17 · medium confidence
Protect Termarr Johnson (2B, AAA, FV 45), Derek Diamond (SIRP, AAA, FV 40) and Keiner Delgado (SS, AA, FV 40) by Nov 17. Expose the rest; the most likely to be taken is Cy Nielson (AAA, risk 0.23; expected loss 0.03 long-term WAR, below the 0.06 that cutting Noah Murdock for a fourth spot would cost; the plan's rule protects at most three).
Development · trends & plan
Tracked levels only. Monthly values; gaps mark the offseason. The number beside each line is its last month, with that month’s sample (faded under 50 PA or 150 pitches), not the season.
Plan for 2027
- 1 Health medical first Medical clearance before any development work
Injury not stated (on the Triple-A injured list since Aug 9; the full-season IL since Aug 18; still on it today). Every other goal on this plan starts after the medical staff clears him.
Health & Workload - 2 Impact high ask Hit the ball harder
Average exit velocity ranks in the 19th percentile of Triple-A hitters (150+ PA). The target beats regression to the mean: it is his expected next season with no plan (a value this far from the Triple-A median tends to come back part of the way) plus the step a quarter of similar players beat. At 22, he’s about 5 years younger than the typical Triple-A player, so the level median is a high bar.
Exit velocity: 85.1 mph target 86.8 mph no plan ≈ 85.5 mph No one-season check: a lean. Telling this target from noise takes about 385 balls in play; he had 234 in 2026. Triple-A tracking - 3 Contact high ask Make more contact on strikes
Zone contact ranks in the 10th percentile of Triple-A hitters (150+ PA). The target beats regression to the mean: it is his expected next season with no plan (a value this far from the Triple-A median tends to come back part of the way) plus the step a quarter of similar players beat. At 22, he’s about 5 years younger than the typical Triple-A player, so the level median is a high bar.
Zone contact: 76% target 81% no plan ≈ 78% Check at the 2027 All-Star break · noise then ±2% Triple-A tracking
Each goal is checked when his sample can tell the target from noise: the 2027 All-Star break if it can by then, else season’s end or the sample it needs; if no single season can, it’s a lean. Coach card
Trends · Triple-A
Triple-A tracking · 2026 percentiles
vs. 461 Triple-A hitters (150+ PA) · 401 tracked PA · the share he beats, so higher is better (less chasing, fewer strikeouts)
Minor leagues
MLB Stats API · public box-score data
| SeasonLevel | Level | Team | Age | G | PA / IP | PA / IP ·Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026AAA | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 22 | 96 | 406 PA | 406 PA · .199/.336/.319 · 8 HR · 24.9% K · 16.7% BB |
| 2025AA | AA | Altoona Curve | 21 | 119 | 503 PA | 503 PA · .272/.363/.382 · 9 HR · 18.5% K · 11.7% BB |
Prospect Pipeline: Perf+ 91 over his 2026 season (406 PA, mostly AAA), 4.7 years younger than his level; trend −15.1 since 2025. Tag: Watch. Prospects →
FanGraphs: FV 45 · ETA 2027. Public pitch tracking exists only at Triple-A and some Florida State League parks; where he has it, the development panel above shows it.