Roster & payroll / Trade Builder
Does this trade make us better, now and later?
Put players on both sides and see whether the deal meets the other club’s price, what it does to 2027, and what it does to the years after.
Major leaguers are valued with Contract Studio’s surplus engine; prospects with FanGraphs’ published value by Future Value grade (or, for 2026 draftees not graded yet, Keystone’s draft curve scaled to that table), blended with the engine once they have a major-league record. The other club’s ask uses the
same package rule as the Winter Plan and the Opportunity Finder: the least prospect value that meets it, unless a package that fits both clubs’ depth clearly better costs up to 10% more. Pittsburgh’s side starts after the Winter Plan.
Pittsburgh sends
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Total value $0
Pittsburgh receives
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Net value to Pittsburgh — Add players to both sides
2027 wins — depth chart after the plan; position swaps worth 0.2+ wins included, as in the Winter Plan
2027 playoff odds 44% from 81.7 projected wins (Winter Plan)
2027 payroll $138.6M +$0 (guaranteed deals at their average salary)
40-man roster 39 of 40 39 before the trade
How prospects are valued
FanGraphs’ published table, used as published
| FV | Hitter | Pitcher |
|---|---|---|
| 70 | $195M | $195M |
| 65 | $95M | $95M |
| 60 | $82M | $70M |
| 55 | $55M | $45M |
| 50 | $45M | $33.5M |
| 45+ | $18.5M | $15M |
| 45 | $14.5M | $9.5M |
| 40+ | $8M | $7M |
| 40 | $5.5M | $4M |
| 35+ | $2M | $1.5M |
Source: Ben Clemens, “Introducing an Updated Method for Prospect Valuation,” FanGraphs, July 2, 2026. Pittsburgh’s board totals $660.5M on this table, graduates included. As valued here, its prospects total $444.7M ($70.7M of it its 11 signed 2026 draftees, on the draft curve scaled to the table), and $295.3M sits outside the protected top 3, before the $16.4M the plan trades.
Read this before trading
- Two scales meet here: our surplus engine ($9M per WAR in 2027, +4%/yr, 8% discount) and FanGraphs’ table. They don’t agree: on 55 2026 graduates who still carry a grade, the engine values them at a median 2.16× the table (1.1× at FV 60+, 1.6× at FV 50–55, 4.4× at FV 45–45+, 7.4× at FV 35+–40+). The engine gives every controlled player a full role every season and no chance of busting; the table prices that in.
- So a graded player with a major-league record is valued as a blend, weighted by how much of the engine’s projection is his own record: PA ÷ (PA + 700) for hitters, IP ÷ (IP + 160) for pitchers, all engine on a guaranteed deal. That brings the median gap to 1.52×, and crossing the rookie limit no longer jumps his value. A gap remains for the lower grades: after blending, 1.0× at FV 60+, 1.2× at FV 50–55, 2.1× at FV 45–45+, 3.2× at FV 35+–40+, so a low-graded player with major-league time is still valued above the table. A graded player on a guaranteed deal is valued on the engine alone: Konnor Griffin (FV 70) is $56.8M here, against $195.0M on the table.
- This summer’s draftees aren’t on FanGraphs’ 2026 preseason board, so they have no grade. Until they do, each signed 2026 draftee is valued at his pick on Keystone’s draft curve (what players taken there became, 2005–16 drafts, net of their salaries), put on the table’s scale: his curve value times the table-to-curve ratio near his pick on the 2025 class, which the board has graded. 310 draftees, 11 of them Pittsburgh’s ($70.7M; $81.9M on the curve). They count in the top-3 protection and in packages. A first-round pick not yet graded is treated like an FV 55+ prospect (Keystone’s rule): another club’s is unlikely to be moved, and each club’s own, Pittsburgh’s included, is kept out of its packages while protection is on. A draftee can be traded once the World Series ends (Keystone’s reading of the rules). The ratio counts every signed 2025 pick from 1 to 300 (298); one the board doesn’t grade counts $0, since the table stops at 35+. The table came to 0.86× the curve overall: 0.84× for picks 1–10, 0.91× for picks 11–30, 1.10× for picks 31–75, 1.25× for picks 76–120, 0.64× for picks 121–180, 0.32× for picks 181–300. The 161 graded picks alone read 1.06×, because the board grades only the better later picks. The ratio rests on one class, with 10 picks in the top band, so it is uncertain: a pick bootstrap gives 80% ranges of 0.71–0.98 for picks 1–10, 0.71–1.14 for picks 11–30, 0.93–1.29 for picks 31–75, 0.90–1.62 for picks 76–120, 0.51–0.78 for picks 121–180, 0.20–0.44 for picks 181–300, and each draftee’s range carries it.
- 13 FanGraphs board prospects have no MLB id in the board data, so they aren’t valued in any trade pool or package, and their grade isn’t joined to them anywhere on the site, including Pittsburgh’s Neomar Urbina (SIRP, 35+; $1.5M on FanGraphs’ table): Randy Arias (HOU, 35+), Micah Bucknam (TOR, 40), Carlos Castillo (LAA, 35+), Connor Cooke (TOR, 40), Joe Elbis (AZ, 35+), Sean Episcope (MIL, 35+), Joshua Flores (MIL, 35+), Ruben Gallego (AZ, 35+), River Hamilton (DET, 35+), Griffin Hugus (SEA, 40), Peter Kussow (NYM, 35+), Dahian Santos (TOR, 35+). No id crosswalk in our data covers them.
- Prospect values average over outcomes; a scout’s read on one player moves them, and that read isn’t public. The “chance ahead” counts projection error on the major leaguers and each 2026 draftee’s value range; a graded prospect’s spread isn’t measured, so when graded prospects carry more than a quarter of either side no chance is shown, and with any prospect in the deal none past 5–95%.
- Free agents aren’t tradeable and don’t appear. Value isn’t availability: each player from another club carries Keystone’s read on whether his club would trade him. Medical history, makeup and clubhouse fit aren’t in any number here.