Players / Player profile
TOR · C

Brandon Valenzuela

Age 26 B/T S/R 6′0″, 225 lb Mexico MLB debut 2026
40-man FV 40 · #28 in org
  • Toronto’s roster as it stands bench · 294 PA · 1.8 WAR in the role
  • Trade read Available at a price: TOR 46% playoff odds; control through 2031.
xwOBA .314 wOBA .314
2026 fWAR 2.1
Projected 2027 WAR 2.0 at 336 PA · 1.8 in his 2027 role

Hitting · 2026

272 PA: percentiles need 300+, so values only

xwOBA .314 xwOBA: .314
Swing decisions +0.66 Swing decisions: +0.66
Contact value −0.65 Contact value: −0.65
Bat speed 72.6 Bat speed: 72.6
Squared-up / swing 18% Squared-up / swing: 18%
Blasts / swing 6% Blasts / swing: 6%
EV90 103.8 EV90: 103.8
Barrel % 7.0% Barrel %: 7.0%
Chase % 28.5% Chase %: 28.5%
Zone contact 85.5% Zone contact: 85.5%
Strikeout % 25.4% Strikeout %: 25.4%
Walk % 10.7% Walk %: 10.7%

Platoon splits · swing path

By pitcher handedness

vsPAwOBAxwOBAK%BB%ChaseDecisionsContact
LHP79.319.32424%13%32%+0.82−0.74
RHP193.311.30926%10%27%+0.59−0.59
Attack angle
9.1° (52% in 5–20°)
Attack direction
−8.6°
Swing length
7.9 ft
Fast-swing rate
20%
Pull-air %
21.5%
Hard-hit %
38.4%
Slash · wRC+
.222/.307/.372 · 93

Zone map · 2026

Where he does damage, and where to pitch him

−0.1+1.9−0.3−1.3+0.60.0+1.1+0.2+2.0+0.1+0.7−0.8+0.9−0.9+0.7+0.4−2.1−3.4−0.2+0.6+0.5−1.4−0.1−0.4−0.9LHB

Does the most damage up and in (+2.0 vs. league per 100; 0.9 standard errors on 26 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).

Weakest down over the middle (−3.4), but only 1.5 standard errors from average on 42 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.

Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average LHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 701 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).

Most similar hitters

Swings like Valenzuela: bat path, contact quality and approach

SimilarityPlayerxwOBA’26 WAR’27 proj2027
76Luis Campusano SD · ’98.3271.80.9Arb
66Gavin Sheets SD · ’96.3160.20.0Arb
59Dylan Beavers BAL · ’01.296−0.20.5Pre-arb
58Austin Wells NYY · ’99.3031.72.2Arb
58Mike Yastrzemski ATL · ’90.3090.60.4Signed $10.0M

Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.

Fielding

2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.

2027 rating by position · best fit first, on the total with the position’s worth
C +15.1 +27.6
1B −1.9prior −17.4
Outs Above Average by position
SeasonPosOAARangeArm, DPRunsBatters
20261B000.00.080

Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.

Range by direction (OAA at 1B)
2026 · 1B In (charging) 0Back 0Toward 3B line 0Toward 1B line 0vs. RHH 0vs. LHH 0
Tools (percentile among MLB fielders)
Arm strength —
Sprint speed 25.6 ft/s · 12th
Zone rating (Keystone expected outs)
SeasonZoneBallsOuts vs. exp.
Too few balls in his zone.

The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.

Compare in the Fielding Lab →

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 2.0 WAR Pre-arb $780K*
2028 2.0 WAR Pre-arb $803K*
2029 1.9 WAR Arbitration $3.7M*
2030 1.8 WAR Arbitration $6.9M*

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevelLevelTeamAgeGPA / IPPA / IP ·Line
2026AAAAAABuffalo Bisons25417 PA 17 PA · .200/.294/.400 · 1 HR · 17.6% K · 11.8% BB
2025AAAASan Antonio Missions2487374 PA 374 PA · .229/.313/.387 · 12 HR · 22.2% K · 10.7% BB
2025AAAAAABuffalo Bisons2426105 PA 105 PA · .207/.295/.370 · 3 HR · 30.5% K · 11.4% BB

FanGraphs: FV 40 · ETA 2026. Public pitch tracking exists only at Triple-A and some Florida State League parks.

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As batter 78% 7/9 won · +0.5 runs
As catcher 47% 31/66 won · −1.3 runs
Keystone is an independent portfolio project. It is not affiliated with Major League Baseball or any club. Data: MLB Stats API, Baseball Savant, FanGraphs. Used under their terms for individual, non-commercial use.