PIT · C

Henry Davis

Age 27 B/T R/R 5′11″, 225 lb USA MLB debut 2023

Pittsburgh org 40-man

PNC Park Pittsburgh’s home park: −2.3 runs per 600 PA against an average park (−0.15 wins over 377 PA; his WAR leaves this out); home runs ×0.77 (×0.77 for right-handed hitters as a group). Pulls 21% of his batted balls in the air, top quarter of right-handed hitters. Park Fit →

xwOBA .298 wOBA .281

2026 fWAR 0.6

Projected 2027 WAR 0.2 Keystone Marcel+ at 377 PA

This winter

What the Winter Plan does with Davis: its decisions feed, the dated moves and the briefs

The plan releases him by Nov 17, before the Rule 5 filing (non-tender deadline Nov 20): the catching options sit within the toss-up line on value; the pick is the best of them and doesn't need him (see catching).

≈ Oct 21–Nov 17 Release Henry Davis before the Rule 5 filing (Nov 17)Before the Rule 5 filing; the non-tender deadline is only the latest date. Shop him first; if nothing comes, release him: the protections filed Nov 17 need his spot.

Tender or non-tender, and the third catcherdue Nov 17 · low confidence
Tender everyone except Henry Davis: shop him first, and if nothing comes, release him by Nov 17: the plan's three Rule 5 protections, filed Nov 17, need his spot, and the non-tender deadline (Nov 20) falls after the filing. First line up the third catcher: re-sign Christian Bethancourt to a minor-league deal, before ≈ Nov 5. On the owners' proposed terms the call flips only if the floor money has no other use (tender Henry Davis, decide in spring: +$2.6M); at face value re-signing Christian Bethancourt still holds (+$372K, against −$400K for tendering and deciding in spring).

Development · trends & plan

Tracked levels only. Monthly values; gaps mark the offseason. The number beside each line is its last month, with that month’s sample (faded under 50 PA or 150 pitches), not the season.

Trends · MLB

Bat speed 73.1 mph Sep ’26 · 32 PA Mar ’24 – Sep ’26

Chase rate 31% Sep ’26 · 32 PA Mar ’24 – Sep ’26

Zone contact 81% Sep ’26 · 32 PA Mar ’24 – Sep ’26

Exit velocity (avg) 91.0 mph Sep ’26 · 32 PA Mar ’24 – Sep ’26

xwOBA .364 Sep ’26 · 32 PA Mar ’24 – Sep ’26

Strikeout rate 19% Sep ’26 · 32 PA Mar ’24 – Sep ’26

Hitting · 2026

297 PA: percentiles need 300+, so values only

xwOBA .298

Swing decisions +0.87

Contact value −1.81

Bat speed 73.9

Squared-up / swing 19%

Blasts / swing 7%

EV90 105.0

Barrel % 8.7%

Chase % 32.1%

Zone contact 84.2%

Strikeout % 21.2%

Walk % 9.4%

Platoon splits · swing path

By pitcher handedness

vs	PA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Chase	Decisions	Contact
LHP	92	.214	.235	25%	3%	38%	+0.66	−3.11
RHP	205	.310	.325	20%	12%	29%	+0.96	−1.16

Attack angle: 11.5° (59% in 5–20°)
Attack direction: −6.4°
Swing length: 7.3 ft
Fast-swing rate: 38%
Pull-air %: 23.0%
Hard-hit %: 41.5%
Slash · wRC+: .172/.272/.313 · 62

Zone map · 2026

Where he does damage, and where to pitch him

Does the most damage up and in (+1.5 vs. league per 100; 0.7 standard errors on 44 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).

Weakest middle-middle (−3.9), but only 1.8 standard errors from average on 81 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.

Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average RHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 1,014 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).

Most similar hitters

Swings like Davis: bat path, contact quality and approach

Similarity	Player	xwOBA	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
80	Gunnar Henderson BAL · ’01	.322	3.6	4.4	Arb
65	Trevor Larnach MIN · ’97	.329	2.2	1.0	Arb
63	Ty France SD · ’94	.328	3.6	1.0	Free agent
62	Cole Carrigg COL · ’02	.316	1.7	1.6	Pre-arb
61	Wyatt Langford TEX · ’01	.319	2.7	3.0	Arb

Ty France (similarity 63, 1.0 WAR projected for 2027) is a free agent this winter: a similar swing available without trading talent, at a free agent’s price. Opportunity Finder →

Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.

Fielding

2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.

2027 rating by position · best fit first, on the total with the position’s worth

C +3.7 +16.2

1B −2.0prior −17.5

Outs Above Average by position

Season	Pos	OAA	Range	Arm, DP	Runs	Batters
2023	RF	−5	−4	+0.4	−3.6	1,846

Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.

Range by direction (OAA)

No directional data (needs a qualified season at one position).

Tools (percentile among MLB fielders)

Arm strength —

Sprint speed 28.1 ft/s · 70th

Zone rating (Keystone expected outs)

Season	Zone	Balls	Outs vs. exp.
Too few balls in his zone.

The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.

Compare in the Fielding Lab →

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 0.2 WAR Arbitration $1.5M*

2028 0.1 WAR Arbitration $1.6M*

2029 −0.1 WAR Arbitration $1.6M*

2030 −0.3 WAR Free agent

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2025AAA	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	25	8	31 PA	31 PA · .286/.355/.393 · 0 HR · 12.9% K · 9.7% BB

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As catcher 54% 56/103 won · −0.4 runs