Players / Player profile
PIT · P

Isaac Mattson

Age 31 B/T R/R 6′2″, 214 lb USA MLB debut 2021
Pittsburgh org 40-man
  • Winter Plan bullpen · 50 IP · 0.4 WAR in the role
  • Injured list 2026: Right hip impingement (Sep 8–Sep 28)
Keystone Stuff 98 43rd pct
2026 fWAR 0.3
Projected 2027 WAR 0.4 at 54 IP · 0.4 in his 2027 role

This winter

What the Winter Plan does with Mattson: its decisions feed, the dated moves and the briefs

The plan keeps him: the bullpen · 50 IP · 0.4 WAR in the role.

Options left: unknown (Keystone can’t estimate it from public data).

  • 2027 starter hook and bullpen rolesdue Spring training · medium confidence

    Rotation (Winter Plan): Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller. Two times through for Mitch Keller once his medicals clear. Let Braxton Ashcraft face the order a third time (a toss-up). Let Paul Skenes face it too, pending the review of his velocity drop. Jared Jones: a 22-batter leash (about 81 pitches) after his arm injury, not an open third time; past it, decide by matchup (a toss-up). Give Bubba Chandler development innings on a 22-batter leash (about 82 pitches), once through the top of the order a third time, at about 1.0 ± 1.2 runs against a two-times-through hook (a toss-up); the goal is first two passes at .306 xwOBA or better, not a third-time skill, pending the review of his velocity drop. Ladder: Mason Montgomery and Yohan Ramírez in the late innings (within noise of each other); Evan Sisk and Luke Weaver setting up (within noise of each other). Move Evan Sisk into the leverage ladder. Move Isaac Mattson out of it.

Development · trends & plan

Tracked levels only. Monthly values; gaps mark the offseason. The number beside each line is its last month, with that month’s sample (faded under 50 PA or 150 pitches), not the season.

Plan for 2027

  1. 1
    Health medical first Medical clearance before any development work

    Right hip impingement (15-day IL, Sep 8–Sep 28, 2026); 0 games after it. Every other goal on this plan starts after the medical staff clears him.

    Health & Workload

Each goal is checked when his sample can tell the target from noise: the 2027 All-Star break if it can by then, else season’s end or the sample it needs; if no single season can, it’s a lean. Coach card

Trends · MLB

Fastball velo 94.6 mph Aug ’26 · 41 pitches Sep ’24 – Aug ’26
Stuff 103 Aug ’26 · 41 pitches Sep ’24 – Aug ’26
Location 66 Aug ’26 · 41 pitches Sep ’24 – Aug ’26
Whiff rate 15% Aug ’26 · 41 pitches Sep ’24 – Aug ’26
Zone rate 46% Aug ’26 · 41 pitches Sep ’24 – Aug ’26
Walk rate 20.0% Aug ’26 · 10 PA Sep ’24 – Aug ’26

Clear changes

  • ▼ Stuff 101 → 91 −10 2025 → 2026 · Triple-A

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 728 pitches

Keystone Stuff 98 Keystone Stuff: 98, 43rd percentile
Keystone Location 92 Keystone Location: 92, 24th percentile
Keystone Pitching 92 Keystone Pitching: 92, 22nd percentile
Run value (xRV) −0.87 Run value (xRV): −0.87, 9th percentile
Strikeout % 20.4% Strikeout %: 20.4%, 35th percentile
Walk % 10.2% Walk %: 10.2%, 32nd percentile
Whiff % 21.0% Whiff %: 21.0%, 16th percentile
Chase % 27.4% Chase %: 27.4%, 18th percentile
Fastball velo 94.2 Fastball velo: 94.2, 45th percentile
Extension 6.7 ft Extension: 6.7 ft, 73rd percentile
38.2 IP5.35 ERA3.72 FIP 46° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

Stuff landscape
−20−20−10−100010102020← Glove sideArm side →Rise (IVB, in) →4SSTCHSL
RHP · arm angle 46° · how to read
PitchUseVeloIVBHBStuffLocWhiffxRV/100
Four-seam70% use70%94.218.1+9.3999419%−0.68
Sweeper10% use10%82.9−0.4−8.89610928%−1.94
Changeup10% use10%86.05.5+9.2987618%−1.50
Slider9% use9%84.93.0−2.49610528%−0.41

No mix change or new pitch clears its bar. The arsenal is efficient for its shapes.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Mattson: same hand, shape, slot and mix

SimilarityPlayerStuff’26 WAR’27 proj2027
48Gordon Graceffo STL · ’00910.60.6Pre-arb
47Kyle Finnegan DET · ’91106−0.80.0Signed $8.0M
47Zach Agnos COL · ’00870.10.1—
46Tobias Myers NYM · ’981010.20.5Pre-arb
42Ben Brown CHC · ’991002.01.9Arb

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Four-seam 71%
52% zone
Changeup 17%
21% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 0.4 WAR Arbitration (est.) $1.9M*
2028 0.3 WAR Free agent
2029 0.2 WAR Free agent
2030 0.1 WAR Free agent

* Estimated: RosterResource has no contract row for him, so control through 2027 estimated from his MLB debut (2021-05-07): six years of service at the earliest; he isn’t in the contract data, and time in the minors would add seasons; pre-arbitration years at the minimum, arbitration years from Keystone’s arbitration model. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevelLevelTeamAgeGPA / IPPA / IP ·Line
2026AAAAAAIndianapolis Indians301520.1 IP 20.1 IP · 1.33 ERA · 29.6% K · 11.1% BB
2025AAAAAAIndianapolis Indians291921 IP 21 IP · 2.57 ERA · 29.8% K · 7.1% BB
Keystone is an independent portfolio project. It is not affiliated with Major League Baseball or any club. Data: MLB Stats API, Baseball Savant, FanGraphs. Used under their terms for individual, non-commercial use.