PIT · P

Jared Jones

Age 25 B/T L/R 6′0″, 211 lb USA MLB debut 2024

Pittsburgh org 40-man

Winter Plan #2 starter · 116 IP · 2.3 WAR in the role
Injured list 2026: Right elbow UCL sprain (carried over from 2025; no reason given) (Feb 11–May 29)

Keystone Stuff 106 75th pct

2026 fWAR 2.6

Projected 2027 WAR 2.4 at 121 IP · 2.3 in his 2027 role

This winter

What the Winter Plan does with Jones: its decisions feed, the dated moves and the briefs

The plan keeps him: #2 starter · 116 IP · 2.3 WAR in the role.

Options left: 3 (Keystone’s estimate).

2027 starter hook and bullpen rolesdue Spring training · medium confidence
Rotation (Winter Plan): Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller. Two times through for Mitch Keller once his medicals clear. Let Braxton Ashcraft face the order a third time (a toss-up). Let Paul Skenes face it too, pending the review of his velocity drop. Jared Jones: a 22-batter leash (about 81 pitches) after his arm injury, not an open third time; past it, decide by matchup (a toss-up). Give Bubba Chandler development innings on a 22-batter leash (about 82 pitches), once through the top of the order a third time, at about 1.0 ± 1.2 runs against a two-times-through hook (a toss-up); the goal is first two passes at .306 xwOBA or better, not a third-time skill, pending the review of his velocity drop. Ladder: Mason Montgomery and Yohan Ramírez in the late innings (within noise of each other); Evan Sisk and Luke Weaver setting up (within noise of each other). Move Evan Sisk into the leverage ladder. Move Isaac Mattson out of it.

Development · trends & plan

Tracked levels only. Monthly values; gaps mark the offseason. The number beside each line is its last month, with that month’s sample (faded under 50 PA or 150 pitches), not the season.

Plan for 2027

1
Pitch shape high ask Get the four-seamer back to its 2024 shape (2″ more ride)
In 2024 it averaged 97.3 mph, 17″ IVB, +8″ HB (941 thrown); in 2026, 98.2 mph, 16″, +9″ (762). On one model the pitch lost about 6 points of Stuff since 2024 (it grades 102 in 2026), and this year’s pitches with the 2024 movement grade about 107: the shape alone is worth about 5 points. It’s a shape he has already thrown, not a new one. His arm angle moved from 45° in 2024 to 40° in 2026, a possible cause worth checking on video before changing anything.
Four-seamer Stuff: 102 target 107 ≈1.9 runs/season (model estimate) Own history (Statcast)
2
Health note low ask Medical note: check in before the winter program
Right elbow UCL sprain (carried over from 2025; no reason given) (60-day IL, Feb 11–May 29, 2026). He came back and played 20 games after it, so it doesn’t hold up the rest of the plan.
Health & Workload

Each goal is checked when his sample can tell the target from noise: the 2027 All-Star break if it can by then, else season’s end or the sample it needs; if no single season can, it’s a lean. Coach card

Trends · MLB

Fastball velo 98.0 mph Sep ’26 · 413 pitches Mar ’24 – Sep ’26

Stuff 104 Sep ’26 · 413 pitches Mar ’24 – Sep ’26

Location 110 Sep ’26 · 413 pitches Mar ’24 – Sep ’26

Whiff rate 37% Sep ’26 · 413 pitches Mar ’24 – Sep ’26

Zone rate 48% Sep ’26 · 413 pitches Mar ’24 – Sep ’26

Walk rate 3.9% Sep ’26 · 103 PA Mar ’24 – Sep ’26

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 1,634 pitches

Keystone Stuff 106

Keystone Location 105

Keystone Pitching 112

Run value (xRV) +0.94

Strikeout % 29.6%

Walk % 7.5%

Whiff % 32.6%

Chase % 32.8%

Fastball velo 98.2

Extension 6.6 ft

101.2 IP3.72 ERA3.22 FIP 40° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

Stuff landscape

RHP · arm angle 40° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Four-seam47% use	47%	98.2	15.6	+9.4	102	100	23%	+0.18
Slider34% use	34%	89.9	1.5	−2.6	109	110	41%	+2.46
Changeup11% use	11%	92.8	3.6	+12.3	99	97	39%	−0.49
Curveball8% use	8%	85.7	−8.9	−5.4	105	95	41%	+0.84

No mix change or new pitch clears its bar. The arsenal is efficient for its shapes.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Jones: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
73	Jacob deGrom TEX · ’88	110	4.3	1.6	Signed $37.0M
58	Jack Leiter TEX · ’00	103	0.5	1.2	Pre-arb
57	Ben Brown CHC · ’99	100	2.0	1.9	Arb
56	Gavin Williams CLE · ’99	107	3.5	2.6	Arb
56	Andrew Painter PHI · ’03	102	1.1	1.3	Pre-arb

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Four-seam 48%

48% zone

Slider 28%

43% zone

Changeup 15%

25% zone

Curveball 9%

35% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 2.4 WAR Arbitration $3.1M*

2028 2.5 WAR Arbitration $6.3M*

2029 2.6 WAR Arbitration $10.7M*

2030 2.6 WAR Free agent

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2026A	A	Bradenton Marauders	24	1	3 IP	3 IP · 0.00 ERA · 55.6% K · 0.0% BB
2026AA	AA	Altoona Curve	24	2	8.1 IP	8.1 IP · 2.16 ERA · 34.4% K · 6.3% BB
2026AAA	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	24	2	7.1 IP	7.1 IP · 4.91 ERA · 25.0% K · 12.5% BB