Bubba Chandler
- Winter Plan #4 starter · 131 IP · 1.9 WAR in the role
This winter
What the Winter Plan does with Chandler: its decisions feed, the dated moves and the briefs
The plan keeps him: #4 starter · 131 IP · 1.9 WAR in the role.
- Health Late-season velocity −1.3 mph and arm angle −3.2° against his baseline (last outing Sep 25) (Health & Workload warning (health.json))
Options left: 3 (Keystone’s estimate).
- 2027 starter hook and bullpen rolesdue Spring training · medium confidence
Rotation (Winter Plan): Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller. Two times through for Mitch Keller once his medicals clear. Let Braxton Ashcraft face the order a third time (a toss-up). Let Paul Skenes face it too, pending the review of his velocity drop. Jared Jones: a 22-batter leash (about 81 pitches) after his arm injury, not an open third time; past it, decide by matchup (a toss-up). Give Bubba Chandler development innings on a 22-batter leash (about 82 pitches), once through the top of the order a third time, at about 1.0 ± 1.2 runs against a two-times-through hook (a toss-up); the goal is first two passes at .306 xwOBA or better, not a third-time skill, pending the review of his velocity drop. Ladder: Mason Montgomery and Yohan Ramírez in the late innings (within noise of each other); Evan Sisk and Luke Weaver setting up (within noise of each other). Move Evan Sisk into the leverage ladder. Move Isaac Mattson out of it.
Development · trends & plan
Tracked levels only. Monthly values; gaps mark the offseason. The number beside each line is its last month, with that month’s sample (faded under 50 PA or 150 pitches), not the season.
Plan for 2027
- 1 Health check low ask Velocity check before the throwing program
Finished 2026 at 97.1 mph over his last three outings vs. a 98.4 mph season baseline (−1.3 mph). In season, a drop like this came before an arm IL stint within 30 days 3.6× as often for starters (14 injuries, a strong signal). His arm angle moved −3.2° over the same outings; velocity and arm angle together came before an arm IL stint 2.3× as often (8 injuries, suggestive). Over the winter there are too few cases to tell (2 injuries in the winter test), so this is a cheap check before the throwing program, not a forecast.
Fastball velocity: 97.1 mph target 98.4 mph Health & Workload
Each goal is checked when his sample can tell the target from noise: the 2027 All-Star break if it can by then, else season’s end or the sample it needs; if no single season can, it’s a lean. Coach card
Trends · MLB
Pitching · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,685 pitches
Arsenal & Pitch Lab
Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch
| Pitch | Use | Velo | IVB | HB | Stuff | Loc | Whiff | xRV/100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam48% use | 48% | 98.3 | 17.3 | +8.6 | 103 | 94 | 22% | −0.22 |
| Slider21% use | 21% | 91.1 | 4.2 | −1.4 | 102 | 110 | 23% | +0.53 |
| Changeup14% use | 14% | 91.4 | 6.3 | +16.5 | 95 | 97 | 25% | +0.07 |
| Sinker8% use | 8% | 97.7 | 12.2 | +14.3 | 98 | 99 | 14% | −0.43 |
| Curveball5% use | 5% | 86.8 | −2.0 | −1.5 | 110 | 96 | 20% | −0.83 |
| Sweeper4% use | 4% | 87.8 | 1.1 | −8.5 | 117 | 99 | 29% | +0.72 |
No mix change or new pitch clears its bar. The arsenal is efficient for its shapes.
Most similar pitchers
Pitches like Chandler: same hand, shape, slot and mix
| Similarity | Player | Stuff | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | Gerrit Cole NYY · ’90 | 104 | 2.1 | 1.1 | Signed $36.0M |
| 61 | Jack Leiter TEX · ’00 | 103 | 0.5 | 1.2 | Pre-arb |
| 56 | Zebby Matthews MIN · ’00 | 92 | 0.7 | 1.1 | — |
| 54 | Ryne Nelson AZ · ’98 | 104 | 0.0 | 1.0 | Arb |
| 54 | Luinder Avila KC · ’01 | 100 | 0.4 | 0.5 | — |
Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.
Pitch locations · 2026
Where each pitch finishes, by batter side
Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →
Minor leagues
MLB Stats API · public box-score data
| SeasonLevel | Level | Team | Age | G | PA / IP | PA / IP ·Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025AAA | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 22 | 24 | 100 IP | 100 IP · 4.05 ERA · 27.4% K · 12.0% BB |
FanGraphs: FV 60 · ETA 2026 · #10 overall. Public pitch tracking exists only at Triple-A and some Florida State League parks; where he has it, the development panel above shows it.
ABS challenges · 2026
Baseball Savant