Players / Player profile
PIT · P

Mason Montgomery

Age 26 B/T L/L 6′2″, 205 lb USA MLB debut 2024
Pittsburgh org 40-man
  • Winter Plan late-inning relief · 60 IP · 1.1 WAR in the role
Keystone Stuff 110 84th pct
2026 fWAR 2.2
Projected 2027 WAR 1.2 at 69 IP · 1.1 in his 2027 role

This winter

What the Winter Plan does with Montgomery: its decisions feed, the dated moves and the briefs

The plan keeps him: late-inning relief · 60 IP · 1.1 WAR in the role.

Options left: 2 (Keystone’s estimate).

  • 2027 starter hook and bullpen rolesdue Spring training · medium confidence

    Rotation (Winter Plan): Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller. Two times through for Mitch Keller once his medicals clear. Let Braxton Ashcraft face the order a third time (a toss-up). Let Paul Skenes face it too, pending the review of his velocity drop. Jared Jones: a 22-batter leash (about 81 pitches) after his arm injury, not an open third time; past it, decide by matchup (a toss-up). Give Bubba Chandler development innings on a 22-batter leash (about 82 pitches), once through the top of the order a third time, at about 1.0 ± 1.2 runs against a two-times-through hook (a toss-up); the goal is first two passes at .306 xwOBA or better, not a third-time skill, pending the review of his velocity drop. Ladder: Mason Montgomery and Yohan Ramírez in the late innings (within noise of each other); Evan Sisk and Luke Weaver setting up (within noise of each other). Move Evan Sisk into the leverage ladder. Move Isaac Mattson out of it.

Development · trends & plan

Tracked levels only. Monthly values; gaps mark the offseason. The number beside each line is its last month, with that month’s sample (faded under 50 PA or 150 pitches), not the season.

Plan for 2027

  1. 1
    Diagnose low ask Find the cause of the drop in Stuff

    Clear declines: Stuff 117 → 110 (2025 → 2026, MLB). Check video, medical and pitch shape before anyone sets a target.

    Development Tracker

Each goal is checked when his sample can tell the target from noise: the 2027 All-Star break if it can by then, else season’s end or the sample it needs; if no single season can, it’s a lean. Coach card

Trends · MLB

Fastball velo 98.7 mph Sep ’26 · 213 pitches Sep ’24 – Sep ’26
Stuff 109 Sep ’26 · 213 pitches Sep ’24 – Sep ’26
Location 105 Sep ’26 · 213 pitches Sep ’24 – Sep ’26
Whiff rate 30% Sep ’26 · 213 pitches Sep ’24 – Sep ’26
Zone rate 49% Sep ’26 · 213 pitches Sep ’24 – Sep ’26
Walk rate 7.8% Sep ’26 · 51 PA Sep ’24 – Sep ’26

Clear changes

  • ▼ Stuff 117 → 110 −7 (−7 by a model that never saw him) 2025 → 2026 · MLB

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 1,169 pitches

Keystone Stuff 110 Keystone Stuff: 110, 84th percentile
Keystone Location 97 Keystone Location: 97, 42nd percentile
Keystone Pitching 119 Keystone Pitching: 119, 96th percentile
Run value (xRV) +1.37 Run value (xRV): +1.37, 95th percentile
Strikeout % 37.8% Strikeout %: 37.8%, 100th percentile
Walk % 9.3% Walk %: 9.3%, 45th percentile
Whiff % 32.5% Whiff %: 32.5%, 93rd percentile
Chase % 32.6% Chase %: 32.6%, 73rd percentile
Fastball velo 98.6 Fastball velo: 98.6, 97th percentile
Extension 6.9 ft Extension: 6.9 ft, 91st percentile
68.2 IP2.88 ERA2.36 FIP 55° arm18 SV

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

Stuff landscape
−20−20−10−100010102020← Glove sideArm side →Rise (IVB, in) →4SSISLCU
LHP · arm angle 55° · how to read
PitchUseVeloIVBHBStuffLocWhiffxRV/100
Four-seam46% use46%98.517.9+4.41089431%+1.68
Sinker24% use24%98.714.6+11.59610733%+1.28
Slider14% use14%89.71.5−1.61149739%+1.48
Curveball13% use13%86.5−6.7−2.21179635%+0.21

No mix change or new pitch clears its bar. The arsenal is efficient for its shapes.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Montgomery: same hand, shape, slot and mix

SimilarityPlayerStuff’26 WAR’27 proj2027
43Brock Burke CIN · ’961000.80.5Free agent
38Brent Headrick NYY · ’971012.11.2Pre-arb
37Jacob Latz TEX · ’961132.21.1Arb
37Jack Dreyer LAD · ’991161.01.0Pre-arb
35Erik Sabrowski CLE · ’971111.20.8Pre-arb

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Four-seam 44%
47% zone
Sinker 29%
51% zone
Curveball 17%
32% zone
Slider 7%
36% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 1.2 WAR Pre-arb $780K*
2028 1.2 WAR Arbitration $3.1M*
2029 1.2 WAR Arbitration $4.6M*
2030 1.2 WAR Arbitration $7.1M*

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevelLevelTeamAgeGPA / IPPA / IP ·Line
2025AAAAAADurham Bulls2599 IP 9 IP · 2.00 ERA · 44.1% K · 2.9% BB
Keystone is an independent portfolio project. It is not affiliated with Major League Baseball or any club. Data: MLB Stats API, Baseball Savant, FanGraphs. Used under their terms for individual, non-commercial use.