Oneil Cruz
- Winter Plan starts at CF · 458 PA · 2.5 WAR in the role
- Injured list 2026: Left hand fourth and fifth metacarpal non-displaced fractures (Jun 10–Aug 17)
- PNC Park Pittsburgh’s home park: +1.8 runs per 600 PA against an average park (+0.14 wins over 458 PA; his WAR leaves this out); home runs ×1.00 (×0.99 for left-handed hitters as a group). Park Fit →
Development · trends & plan
Tracked levels only. Monthly values; gaps mark the offseason. The number beside each line is its last month, with that month’s sample (faded under 50 PA or 150 pitches), not the season.
Plan for 2027
- 1 Diagnose low ask Find the cause of the drop in bat speed
Clear declines: bat speed 77.2 mph → 75.1 mph (late 2026, MLB). Check video, medical and pitch shape before anyone sets a target.
Development Tracker - 2 Approach medium ask Attack hittable pitches
Takes 38% of the pitches the swing model says are worth swinging at (MLB median 29%). The Hitting Lab’s regressed swing-decision value is −0.72 per 100 pitches (2025–26 pooled; about −0.35 runs), past its −0.55 line, and the cause is passivity, not chasing (worse than 97% of MLB regulars on hittable pitches taken, 2025–26). With no plan a take rate like his drifts toward the median on its own (about 36% next year); the target beats that.
Hittable-pitch take rate: 38% target 34% no plan ≈ 36% ≈6.3 runs/season (what his swing decisions cost a season vs. an average hitter at his 2027 plate appearances, on the Hitting Lab’s regressed value) Check at the end of the 2027 season · noise then ±2% Hitting Lab · decisions
Each goal is checked when his sample can tell the target from noise: the 2027 All-Star break if it can by then, else season’s end or the sample it needs; if no single season can, it’s a lean. Coach card
Trends · MLB
Clear changes
- ▼ bat speed 77.2 mph → 75.1 mph −2.1 mph late 2026 · MLB
- ▼ bat speed 77.8 mph → 76.6 mph −1.2 mph 2025 → 2026 · MLB
Hitting · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB hitters with 300+ PA · 417 PA
Platoon splits · swing path
By pitcher handedness
| vs | PA | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Chase | Decisions | Contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LHP | 138 | .385 | .315 | 38% | 6% | 30% | −1.18 | +2.48 |
| RHP | 279 | .385 | .370 | 31% | 13% | 30% | −0.46 | +1.82 |
- Attack angle
- 7.8° (42% in 5–20°)
- Attack direction
- −7.0°
- Swing length
- 7.5 ft
- Fast-swing rate
- 67%
- Pull-air %
- 15.8%
- Hard-hit %
- 54.2%
- Slash · wRC+
- .280/.367/.486 · 132
Zone map · 2026
Where he does damage, and where to pitch him
Does the most damage middle-middle (+3.5 vs. league per 100; 1.7 standard errors on 97 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).
Weakest middle-in (−1.7), but only 0.8 standard errors from average on 69 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.
Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average LHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 1,571 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).
Most similar hitters
Swings like Cruz: bat path, contact quality and approach
| Similarity | Player | xwOBA | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | Elly De La Cruz CIN · ’02 | .381 | 6.4 | 5.1 | Arb |
| 46 | Garrett Mitchell MIL · ’98 | .356 | 3.1 | 2.5 | Arb |
| 45 | Francisco Alvarez NYM · ’01 | .324 | 1.4 | 2.0 | Arb |
| 39 | Jake Burger TEX · ’96 | .316 | 1.5 | 0.6 | Arb |
| 38 | Aaron Judge NYY · ’92 | .398 | 2.0 | 3.6 | Signed $40.0M |
Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.
Fielding
2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.
| Season | Pos | OAA | Range | Arm, DP | Runs | Batters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | CF | −1 | −1 | +3.1 | +2.1 | 3,191 |
| 2025 | CF | 0 | 0 | +3.8 | +3.8 | 4,435 |
| 2024 | CF | +2 | +2 | +0.1 | +2.1 | 840 |
| 2024 | SS | −3 | −2 | +0.6 | −1.4 | 4,060 |
| 2023 | SS | 0 | 0 | −0.3 | −0.3 | 314 |
Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.
At CF in 2026, the biggest loss came in (charging) (−2 outs): a coaching target.
Tools (percentile; arm among CFs)| Play | Made | Chances | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 1 | 16 | 6% |
| ★★★★ | 1 | 2 | 50% |
| ★★★ | 5 | 6 | 83% |
| ★★ | 13 | 16 | 81% |
| ★ | 11 | 12 | 92% |
| Season | Zone | Balls | Outs vs. exp. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | CF | 350 | −7.7 |
| 2025 | CF | 476 | −5.1 |
| 2024 | SS | 386 | −0.9 |
| 2024 | CF | 81 | −1.0 |
The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →
Minor leagues
MLB Stats API · public box-score data
| SeasonLevel | Level | Team | Age | G | PA / IP | PA / IP ·Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026AA | AA | Altoona Curve | 27 | 4 | 18 PA | 18 PA · .176/.222/.176 · 0 HR · 22.2% K · 5.6% BB |
| 2026AAA | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 27 | 2 | 7 PA | 7 PA · .000/.286/.000 · 0 HR · 42.9% K · 28.6% BB |
| 2025AA | AA | Altoona Curve | 26 | 2 | 8 PA | 8 PA · .167/.375/.500 · 0 HR · 25.0% K · 25.0% BB |
ABS challenges · 2026
Baseball Savant