Mitch Keller
- Winter Plan #5 starter · 128 IP · 1.2 WAR in the role
- Injured list Ended 2026 on the 60-day IL: Right arm teres major muscle injury (since Aug 3)
This winter
What the Winter Plan does with Keller: its decisions feed, the dated moves and the briefs
The plan keeps him: #5 starter · 128 IP · 1.2 WAR in the role.
Keep him (the plan). Kept: 81.7 wins, 44% playoff odds. Traded with 50% of his salary retained: 81.0 wins, 41%, saving $6.9M of 2027 payroll.
Ended 2026 on the 60-day IL (Right arm teres major muscle injury). The plan assumes he is ready for spring; that is a medical call we can't see.
- Mitch Keller: keep, trade, or add a starterdue Dec 1 · low confidence
Keep him for now, medicals first; revisit once he is cleared (he ended 2026 on the 60-day IL). Under today's rules the trade saves $13.3M in 2027 dollars against 1.2 wins over 2027–2028 worth $10.9M: net $2.4M for trading, but a club gains from the terms only if his medicals are clean. With the floor money spent either way (the Free-Agent Board's list measured on each branch, on the owners' proposed terms), keeping him comes to 84.8 wins and trading him 85.0, a toss-up. Adding a mid-tier starter, Jack Flaherty, adds +1.0 to +1.1 wins: his price doesn't beat the market price of a win, so it waits with the floor money.
- 2027 starter hook and bullpen rolesdue Spring training · medium confidence
Rotation (Winter Plan): Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller. Two times through for Mitch Keller once his medicals clear. Let Braxton Ashcraft face the order a third time (a toss-up). Let Paul Skenes face it too, pending the review of his velocity drop. Jared Jones: a 22-batter leash (about 81 pitches) after his arm injury, not an open third time; past it, decide by matchup (a toss-up). Give Bubba Chandler development innings on a 22-batter leash (about 82 pitches), once through the top of the order a third time, at about 1.0 ± 1.2 runs against a two-times-through hook (a toss-up); the goal is first two passes at .306 xwOBA or better, not a third-time skill, pending the review of his velocity drop. Ladder: Mason Montgomery and Yohan Ramírez in the late innings (within noise of each other); Evan Sisk and Luke Weaver setting up (within noise of each other). Move Evan Sisk into the leverage ladder. Move Isaac Mattson out of it.
Development · trends & plan
Tracked levels only. Monthly values; gaps mark the offseason. The number beside each line is its last month, with that month’s sample (faded under 50 PA or 150 pitches), not the season.
Plan for 2027
- 1 Health medical first Medical clearance before any development work
Right arm teres major muscle injury (60-day IL, Aug 3–still open at season’s end). Every other goal on this plan starts after the medical staff clears him.
Health & Workload
Each goal is checked when his sample can tell the target from noise: the 2027 All-Star break if it can by then, else season’s end or the sample it needs; if no single season can, it’s a lean. Coach card
Trends · MLB
Pitching · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 1,887 pitches
Arsenal & Pitch Lab
Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch
| Pitch | Use | Velo | IVB | HB | Stuff | Loc | Whiff | xRV/100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam32% use | 32% | 93.3 | 15.1 | +8.6 | 93 | 111 | 17% | −0.06 |
| Sinker17% use | 17% | 92.3 | 7.7 | +14.3 | 86 | 98 | 15% | −2.44 |
| Sweeper16% use | 16% | 81.9 | 0.8 | −17.2 | 108 | 95 | 24% | −0.87 |
| Slider9% use | 9% | 87.2 | 1.1 | −4.5 | 101 | 105 | 22% | −1.00 |
| Changeup9% use | 9% | 88.7 | 2.4 | +12.1 | 91 | 108 | 26% | −1.76 |
| Curveball9% use | 9% | 77.8 | −13.1 | −13.1 | 92 | 83 | 37% | −0.68 |
| Cutter8% use | 8% | 89.6 | 9.0 | −2.4 | 96 | 111 | 21% | −1.04 |
Changeup grades 91 with below-average expected results; his sweeper grades 108. The best case is against lefties: the sweeper is worth +0.4 runs per 100 pitches more, 0.4 standard errors (113 and 160 pitches), short of the 2 needed. No mix change until it clears.
Curveball grades 92 with below-average expected results; his sweeper grades 108. The best case is against lefties: the sweeper is worth +0.1 runs per 100 pitches more, 0.2 standard errors (113 and 144 pitches), short of the 2 needed. No mix change until it clears.
Sinker grades 86 with below-average expected results; his sweeper grades 108. The best case is against lefties: the sweeper is worth +1.0 runs per 100 pitches more, 1.1 standard errors (113 and 145 pitches), short of the 2 needed. No mix change until it clears.
Most similar pitchers
Pitches like Keller: same hand, shape, slot and mix
| Similarity | Player | Stuff | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | Will Warren NYY · ’99 | 102 | 2.2 | 2.0 | Pre-arb |
| 63 | Ryan Gusto MIA · ’99 | 97 | 1.0 | 1.1 | — |
| 62 | Hayden Wesneski HOU · ’97 | 90 | 1.2 | 1.1 | Arb |
| 62 | Erick Fedde CWS · ’93 | 84 | −0.1 | 0.2 | Free agent |
| 60 | Davis Martin CWS · ’97 | 88 | 2.6 | 1.8 | Pre-arb |
Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.
Pitch locations · 2026
Where each pitch finishes, by batter side
Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR