Carmen Mlodzinski
- Winter Plan bullpen · 74 IP · 0.9 WAR in the role
- Decision Brief 2027 starter hook and bullpen roles (due Spring training, medium confidence)
Development · trends & plan
Tracked levels only. Monthly values; gaps mark the offseason. The number beside each line is its last month, with that month’s sample (faded under 50 PA or 150 pitches), not the season.
Plan for 2027
- 1 Velocity medium ask Recover the four-seamer velocity he showed in 2025
His four-seamer averaged 96.1 mph in 2025 and 95.0 in 2026. Pitchers his age typically change +0.1 mph over one season, so he is about 1.0 mph short of his own norm. The cause (health, mechanics, intent) needs a look first; velocity he has already shown is a realistic target, more isn’t.
Four-seamer velocity: 95.0 mph target 96.1 mph ≈4.8 runs/season (the rest of 5.5 runs at stake in a Stuff drop of 8 points both models agree on; the shape goal carries 0.7) Own history (Statcast) - 2 Pitch shape high ask Get the sweeper back to its 2025 shape (7″ less drop and 4″ more arm-side run)
In 2025 it averaged 84.0 mph, 5″ IVB, −8″ HB (173 thrown); in 2026, 83.5 mph, −2″, −12″ (215). On one model the pitch lost about 14 points of Stuff since 2025 (it grades 96 in 2026), and this year’s pitches with the 2025 movement grade about 103: the shape alone is worth about 8 points. It’s a shape he has already thrown, not a new one.
Sweeper Stuff: 96 target 103 ≈0.7 runs/season (model estimate) Own history (Statcast)
Each goal is checked when his sample can tell the target from noise: the 2027 All-Star break if it can by then, else season’s end or the sample it needs; if no single season can, it’s a lean. Coach card
Trends · MLB
Clear changes
- ▼ Stuff 103 → 94 −9 (−8 by a model that never saw him) 2025 → 2026 · MLB
- ▼ fastball velocity 96.1 mph → 95.0 mph −1.0 mph 2025 → 2026 · MLB
- ▼ sinker velocity 95.9 mph → 94.4 mph −1.5 mph 2025 → 2026 · MLB
Pitching · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,080 pitches
Arsenal & Pitch Lab
Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch
| Pitch | Use | Velo | IVB | HB | Stuff | Loc | Whiff | xRV/100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam26% use | 26% | 95.0 | 12.0 | +10.0 | 91 | 103 | 16% | −0.98 |
| Splitter25% use | 25% | 85.8 | −0.9 | +9.4 | 100 | 100 | 32% | +0.39 |
| Sinker18% use | 18% | 94.4 | 6.1 | +17.0 | 96 | 101 | 6% | −1.93 |
| Curveball12% use | 12% | 83.8 | −8.9 | −7.7 | 95 | 105 | 25% | +0.08 |
| Sweeper10% use | 10% | 83.5 | −2.3 | −12.0 | 96 | 103 | 24% | +0.89 |
| Cutter5% use | 5% | 92.1 | 11.0 | +2.5 | 98 | 112 | 19% | −0.13 |
| Slider4% use | 4% | 90.2 | 7.2 | −1.3 | 90 | 109 | 21% | −1.08 |
No mix change or new pitch clears its bar. The arsenal is efficient for its shapes.
Most similar pitchers
Pitches like Mlodzinski: same hand, shape, slot and mix
| Similarity | Player | Stuff | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | Colin Rea CHC · ’90 | 96 | 0.4 | 0.4 | Free agent |
| 50 | Zach Agnos COL · ’00 | 87 | 0.1 | 0.1 | — |
| 48 | JR Ritchie ATL · ’03 | 95 | −0.3 | 0.2 | — |
| 47 | Shane Bieber TOR · ’95 | 94 | 0.1 | 0.4 | Free agent |
| 46 | Stephen Kolek KC · ’97 | 90 | 0.5 | 1.0 | Pre-arb |
Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.
Pitch locations · 2026
Where each pitch finishes, by batter side
Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →
Minor leagues
MLB Stats API · public box-score data
| SeasonLevel | Level | Team | Age | G | PA / IP | PA / IP ·Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025AAA | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 26 | 3 | 15.2 IP | 15.2 IP · 1.15 ERA · 25.0% K · 10.9% BB |
ABS challenges · 2026
Baseball Savant