TOR · P

Shane Bieber

Age 31 B/T R/R 6′3″, 200 lb USA MLB debut 2018

40-man

Free agent est. 1 yr × $2.7M ($1M–$6M) · +0.2 wins to Pittsburgh’s Winter Plan as rotation depth
Injured list 2026: Right teres major inflammation (Aug 24–Sep 28)

Keystone Stuff 94 27th pct

2026 fWAR 0.1

Projected 2027 WAR 0.4 Keystone Marcel+ at 102 IP

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 930 pitches

Keystone Stuff 94

Keystone Location 91

Keystone Pitching 89

Run value (xRV) −1.39

Strikeout % 18.2%

Walk % 9.9%

Whiff % 23.5%

Chase % 29.6%

Fastball velo 92.3

Extension 6.6 ft

55.2 IP4.37 ERA5.15 FIP 39° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

RHP · arm angle 39° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Four-seam37% use	37%	92.3	17.5	+11.2	100	100	12%	−0.99
Knuckle curve18% use	18%	82.6	−11.7	−5.9	90	96	36%	−1.83
Changeup18% use	18%	88.2	1.0	+12.4	98	98	24%	−0.27
Cutter12% use	12%	87.4	8.6	−0.8	91	72	21%	−2.81
Slider10% use	10%	85.3	−1.3	−0.4	98	96	37%	−3.46
Sinker4% use	4%	92.2	12.5	+15.6	91	74	10%	+1.05

No mix change or new pitch clears its bar. The arsenal is efficient for its shapes.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Bieber: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
60	Merrill Kelly AZ · ’88	93	−0.1	0.4	Signed $22.0M
59	Brandon Pfaadt AZ · ’98	96	2.2	2.0	Signed $5.4M
53	Davis Martin CWS · ’97	88	2.6	1.8	Pre-arb
52	Kyle Leahy STL · ’97	95	2.6	1.5	Arb
50	Colin Rea CHC · ’90	96	0.4	0.4	Free agent

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Four-seam 37%

44% zone

Changeup 27%

32% zone

Knuckle curve 21%

30% zone

Cutter 9%

35% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 0.4 WAR Free agent

2028 0.2 WAR Free agent

2029 0.0 WAR Free agent

2030 −0.2 WAR Free agent

A pending free agent: no club controls his 2027. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2026A	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	31	1	2.1 IP	2.1 IP · 19.29 ERA · 15.4% K · 0.0% BB
2026AAA	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	31	3	12.2 IP	12.2 IP · 5.68 ERA · 15.8% K · 8.8% BB
2026ROK	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	31	1	2 IP	2 IP · 0.00 ERA · 37.5% K · 0.0% BB
2025A+	A+	Lake County Captains	30	1	3 IP	3 IP · 3.00 ERA · 36.4% K · 0.0% BB
2025AA	AA	Akron RubberDucks	30	1	4 IP	4 IP · 2.25 ERA · 50.0% K · 0.0% BB
2025AAA	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	30	3	17.2 IP	17.2 IP · 2.04 ERA · 24.6% K · 3.1% BB
2025ROK	ROK	ACL Guardians	30	2	4.1 IP	4.1 IP · 0.00 ERA · 58.8% K · 5.9% BB