Aaron Civale
- Free agent est. 1 yr × $7.5M ($3M–$15M) · +0.3 wins to Pittsburgh’s Winter Plan as rotation depth
- Injured list 2026: Right shoulder tendinits (May 26–Jun 17)
Pitching · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 1,896 pitches
Arsenal & Pitch Lab
Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch
| Pitch | Use | Velo | IVB | HB | Stuff | Loc | Whiff | xRV/100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter38% use | 38% | 88.1 | 10.1 | −6.0 | 113 | 112 | 25% | +1.40 |
| Curveball26% use | 26% | 77.4 | −14.9 | −11.4 | 95 | 108 | 23% | +0.66 |
| Sinker16% use | 16% | 91.6 | 13.0 | +13.8 | 79 | 108 | 13% | −1.50 |
| Four-seam10% use | 10% | 91.5 | 18.5 | +6.4 | 86 | 96 | 12% | −3.01 |
| Splitter7% use | 7% | 84.9 | 7.5 | +14.5 | 82 | 104 | 24% | −0.22 |
| Slider3% use | 3% | 82.5 | −3.5 | −8.5 | 95 | 115 | 17% | −2.01 |
Sinker grades 79 and gets below-average expected results on 16% usage. Against all hitters, moving about 7 of every 100 pitches to the cutter (113 Stuff), about 45% of his sinkers to them, is worth an estimated 1.4 runs per season, after a 50% haircut for diminishing returns. vs. lefties: the cutter is worth +2.0 runs per 100 pitches more, 2.6 standard errors (384 and 147 pitches; his own results against that side combined with Stuff and the league’s platoon split). vs. righties: the cutter is worth +2.1 runs per 100 pitches more, 2.7 standard errors (333 and 157 pitches; his own results against that side combined with Stuff and the league’s platoon split). His fastballs stay at 35%+.
Four-seam grades 86 with below-average expected results; his cutter grades 113. The best case is against righties: the cutter is worth +2.3 runs per 100 pitches more, 2.9 standard errors (333 and 64 pitches), short of the 2 needed. No mix change until it clears.
Built from his own fastball (91.6 mph) plus the typical shape 15 pitchers with his slot (44°) throw: a changeup around 83.4 mph, 3.3″ rise, +18.4″ arm-side. On the same model it grades +29 against his splitter, the pitch with the same job (+21 to +34 across the production and three cross-fit models), about 111 on his splitter’s scale; the comps’ own changeups grade 92 at the median, so that sits above 93% of them. That would out-grade 100% of the comps’ real pitches, more likely a result of how the pitch was built than of the pitch, so it isn’t queued.
Most similar pitchers
Pitches like Civale: same hand, shape, slot and mix
| Similarity | Player | Stuff | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | Gabriel Hughes COL · ’01 | 97 | 1.1 | 1.3 | — |
| 30 | Tanner Bibee CLE · ’99 | 99 | 1.5 | 1.8 | Signed $7.4M |
| 22 | Chase Shugart PHI · ’96 | 104 | −0.1 | 0.0 | Pre-arb |
| 22 | Antonio Senzatela MIL · ’95 | 94 | 1.1 | 0.3 | Free agent |
| 22 | Drew Rasmussen TB · ’95 | 112 | 5.0 | 3.4 | Club option $8.0M |
Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.
Pitch locations · 2026
Where each pitch finishes, by batter side
Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
A pending free agent: no club controls his 2027. Contract Studio →
Minor leagues
MLB Stats API · public box-score data
| SeasonLevel | Level | Team | Age | G | PA / IP | PA / IP ·Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026AAA | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 31 | 1 | 4.1 IP | 4.1 IP · 0.00 ERA · 53.8% K · 0.0% BB |
| 2025AAA | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 30 | 2 | 9 IP | 9 IP · 0.00 ERA · 16.7% K · 6.7% BB |