CLE · P

Parker Messick

Age 25 B/T L/L 6′0″, 225 lb USA MLB debut 2025

40-man FV 50 · #4 in org

Cleveland’s roster as it stands #1 starter · 140 IP · 3.2 WAR in the role
Trade read Unlikely to be traded: Young, controllable regular (age 26, control through 2031): the kind of player clubs build around.

Keystone Stuff 96 33rd pct

2026 fWAR 4.9

Projected 2027 WAR 3.9 at 167 IP · 3.2 in his 2027 role

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,948 pitches

Keystone Stuff 96

Keystone Location 106

Keystone Pitching 106

Run value (xRV) +0.76

Strikeout % 25.8%

Walk % 6.6%

Whiff % 25.5%

Chase % 31.6%

Fastball velo 93.9

Extension 6.5 ft

186.1 IP2.56 ERA3.07 FIP 42° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

LHP · arm angle 42° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Four-seam42% use	42%	94.4	16.5	+5.4	100	109	25%	+1.69
Changeup24% use	24%	85.9	1.6	+14.8	100	97	36%	+1.44
Sinker15% use	15%	92.8	10.1	+13.1	82	105	11%	−0.43
Curveball8% use	8%	79.3	−5.9	−14.0	101	99	12%	−0.84
Slider7% use	7%	87.0	4.1	−5.5	104	103	27%	−1.69
Cutter5% use	5%	90.6	9.8	−2.4	95	87	34%	−0.95

Weak pitch to watch

Sinker grades 82 with below-average expected results; his slider grades 104. The best case is against righties: the slider is worth +1.4 runs per 100 pitches more, 1.7 standard errors (72 and 213 pitches), short of the 2 needed. No mix change until it clears.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Messick: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
54	Anthony Kay CWS · ’95	102	1.3	0.8	Signed $5.0M
51	Jake Bennett BOS · ’00	95	2.3	2.1	Pre-arb
51	Eduardo Rodriguez AZ · ’93	91	3.2	1.6	Signed $19.0M
49	Connelly Early WSH · ’02	104	0.8	1.5	Pre-arb
45	Trevor Rogers BAL · ’97	106	4.0	3.3	Free agent

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Four-seam 43%

52% zone

Changeup 29%

23% zone

Sinker 10%

55% zone

Curveball 9%

44% zone

Cutter 5%

34% zone

Slider 3%

35% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 3.9 WAR Pre-arb $780K*

2028 4.0 WAR Pre-arb $803K*

2029 4.0 WAR Arbitration $6.1M*

2030 3.9 WAR Arbitration $12.2M*

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2025AAA	AAA	Columbus Clippers	24	20	98.2 IP	98.2 IP · 3.47 ERA · 29.1% K · 10.3% BB

FanGraphs: FV 50 · ETA 2026 · #51 overall. Public pitch tracking exists only at Triple-A and some Florida State League parks.