WSH · P

Connelly Early

Age 24 B/T L/L 6′3″, 195 lb USA MLB debut 2025

40-man FV 50 · #4 in org

Washington’s roster as it stands #3 starter · 115 IP · 1.5 WAR in the role
Injured list 2026: Left elbow inflammation (Jul 26–Sep 26)
Trade read Unlikely to be traded: Young and cheap for years (age 25, about $53M of surplus value through 2031): a core piece.

Keystone Stuff 104 63rd pct

2026 fWAR 0.8

Projected 2027 WAR 1.5 at 119 IP · 1.5 in his 2027 role

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 1,562 pitches

Keystone Stuff 104

Keystone Location 92

Keystone Pitching 102

Run value (xRV) −0.05

Strikeout % 23.5%

Walk % 8.5%

Whiff % 23.5%

Chase % 31.2%

Fastball velo 93.4

Extension 6.7 ft

94.2 IP3.33 ERA4.54 FIP 30° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

LHP · arm angle 30° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Four-seam35% use	35%	94.0	16.0	+10.5	104	96	24%	+0.07
Sinker20% use	20%	92.4	7.8	+17.7	99	88	13%	−0.41
Changeup18% use	18%	83.7	−2.4	+10.8	101	104	23%	−0.40
Curveball11% use	11%	80.0	−9.4	−9.9	102	85	21%	−2.07
Sweeper8% use	8%	82.5	−1.9	−13.8	114	86	41%	+3.83
Slider8% use	8%	87.1	6.1	−0.3	94	103	29%	−0.06

No mix change or new pitch clears its bar. The arsenal is efficient for its shapes.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Early: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
57	Kyle Harrison MIL · ’01	115	1.7	1.6	Pre-arb
49	Parker Messick CLE · ’00	96	4.9	3.9	Pre-arb
48	Steven Matz TB · ’91	101	0.0	0.1	Signed $7.5M
46	Anthony Kay CWS · ’95	102	1.3	0.8	Signed $5.0M
46	Jake Bennett BOS · ’00	95	2.3	2.1	Pre-arb

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Four-seam 37%

47% zone

Changeup 24%

32% zone

Sinker 15%

41% zone

Curveball 14%

36% zone

Slider 8%

49% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 1.5 WAR Pre-arb $780K*

2028 1.6 WAR Pre-arb $803K*

2029 1.7 WAR Arbitration $3.2M*

2030 1.7 WAR Arbitration $6.0M*

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2026AAA	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	24	2	2.2 IP	2.2 IP · 10.13 ERA · 23.5% K · 29.4% BB
2025AA	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	23	15	71.2 IP	71.2 IP · 2.51 ERA · 32.3% K · 9.8% BB
2025AAA	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	23	6	28.2 IP	28.2 IP · 2.83 ERA · 30.8% K · 9.4% BB

FanGraphs: FV 50 · ETA 2026 · #40 overall. Public pitch tracking exists only at Triple-A and some Florida State League parks.