BAL · P

Trevor Rogers

Age 28 B/T L/L 6′5″, 230 lb USA MLB debut 2020

40-man

Free agent est. 5 yr × $25.9M ($18M–$40M) · +2.0 wins to Pittsburgh’s Winter Plan as its #2 starter
1 caution
- Likely to receive a qualifying offer (an estimate until offers are made, about Nov 1–5). Signing him would cost Pittsburgh a draft pick worth about $5.8M ($4.0–9.3M) net of its bonus, under the current CBA.
Injured list 2026: Illness (Apr 26–May 12)

Keystone Stuff 106 74th pct

2026 fWAR 4.0

Projected 2027 WAR 3.3 Keystone Marcel+ at 166 IP

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,689 pitches

Keystone Stuff 106

Keystone Location 112

Keystone Pitching 114

Run value (xRV) +0.76

Strikeout % 22.5%

Walk % 5.6%

Whiff % 24.4%

Chase % 35.6%

Fastball velo 93.7

Extension 6.7 ft

169.2 IP4.03 ERA3.45 FIP 22° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

LHP · arm angle 22° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Four-seam47% use	47%	93.8	15.3	+10.7	107	114	25%	+0.86
Changeup20% use	20%	87.0	1.9	+13.8	96	108	24%	−0.49
Sweeper14% use	14%	78.1	3.9	−10.6	116	108	32%	+2.28
Sinker10% use	10%	93.4	8.0	+17.3	92	93	14%	+0.80
Cutter8% use	8%	83.0	3.2	−4.3	103	87	23%	+0.66

Weak pitch to watch

Changeup grades 96 with below-average expected results; his sweeper grades 116. The best case is against righties: the sweeper is worth +1.2 runs per 100 pitches more, 1.8 standard errors (283 and 492 pitches), short of the 2 needed. No mix change until it clears.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Rogers: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
59	Robert Gasser MIL · ’99	106	1.5	1.4	Pre-arb
55	Sean Manaea NYM · ’92	110	1.0	0.7	Signed $25.0M
48	Jacob Lopez ATH · ’98	109	0.8	1.1	Pre-arb
46	Anthony Kay CWS · ’95	102	1.3	0.8	Signed $5.0M
45	Jake Bennett BOS · ’00	95	2.3	2.1	Pre-arb

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Four-seam 48%

53% zone

Changeup 25%

32% zone

Sweeper 14%

42% zone

Sinker 7%

58% zone

Cutter 6%

50% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 3.3 WAR Free agent

2028 3.1 WAR Free agent

2029 2.9 WAR Free agent

2030 2.6 WAR Free agent

A pending free agent: no club controls his 2027. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2025AA	AA	Chesapeake Baysox	27	1	3 IP	3 IP · 6.00 ERA · 23.1% K · 7.7% BB
2025AAA	AAA	Norfolk Tides	27	7	29.2 IP	29.2 IP · 5.46 ERA · 19.5% K · 6.0% BB