ATH · P

Jacob Lopez

Age 28 B/T L/L 6′4″, 220 lb USA MLB debut 2023

40-man Dead-weight pitch

The Athletics’ roster as it stands #4 starter · 126 IP · 1.0 WAR in the role
Trade read Available at a price: ATH 27% playoff odds; control through 2031.

Keystone Stuff 109 81st pct

2026 fWAR 0.8

Projected 2027 WAR 1.1 at 141 IP · 1.0 in his 2027 role

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,226 pitches

Keystone Stuff 109

Keystone Location 100

Keystone Pitching 103

Run value (xRV) +0.34

Strikeout % 20.3%

Walk % 10.5%

Whiff % 24.1%

Chase % 27.3%

Fastball velo 90.3

Extension 6.9 ft

123.1 IP5.47 ERA5.22 FIP 19° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

LHP · arm angle 19° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Four-seam35% use	35%	90.3	12.7	+13.5	101	96	20%	+0.11
Slider34% use	34%	76.1	2.9	−10.3	123	105	29%	+1.26
Cutter20% use	20%	86.1	8.2	+0.7	92	101	23%	+0.64
Changeup9% use	9%	82.4	4.4	+17.6	94	93	26%	−2.61
Sinker3% use	3%	89.7	6.6	+18.0	110	88	9%	−1.05

Dead weight

Changeup grades 94 and gets below-average expected results on 9% usage. Against righties, moving about 4 of every 100 pitches to the slider (123 Stuff), about 37% of his changeups to them, is worth an estimated 0.7 runs per season, after a 50% haircut for diminishing returns. vs. righties: the slider is worth +2.0 runs per 100 pitches more, 2.8 standard errors (504 and 193 pitches; his own results against that side combined with Stuff and the league’s platoon split). His fastballs stay at 35%+.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Lopez: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
68	Sean Manaea NYM · ’92	110	1.0	0.7	Signed $25.0M
54	Robert Gasser MIL · ’99	106	1.5	1.4	Pre-arb
48	Trevor Rogers BAL · ’97	106	4.0	3.3	Free agent
41	Nick Lodolo CIN · ’98	102	−0.1	1.2	Arb
37	Noah Schultz CWS · ’03	105	0.3	0.7	—

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Slider 31%

38% zone

Four-seam 31%

44% zone

Cutter 24%

51% zone

Changeup 12%

32% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 1.1 WAR Pre-arb $780K*

2028 1.0 WAR Pre-arb $803K*

2029 0.8 WAR Arbitration $2.5M*

2030 0.6 WAR Arbitration $4.4M*

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2026AAA	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	28	4	15 IP	15 IP · 7.20 ERA · 24.3% K · 7.1% BB
2025AAA	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	27	6	27 IP	27 IP · 2.33 ERA · 36.5% K · 7.7% BB

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As pitcher 100% 1/1 won · 0.0 runs