Paul Skenes
- Winter Plan #1 starter · 144 IP · 4.0 WAR in the role
This winter
What the Winter Plan does with Skenes: its decisions feed, the dated moves and the briefs
The plan keeps him: #1 starter · 144 IP · 4.0 WAR in the role.
Extension: talks open until Dec 1 (before the CBA expires: a lockout freezes talks); club control runs through 2029. No decision in the Winter Plan; the extension brief owns it.
The brief’s call (low confidence): Stage it. By mid-November: medical and biomechanics review of the four-seam velocity drop and the arm-angle change (the club's medical data; Keystone has none). If the cause is benign, offer up to $22.6M a year for 5 years before Dec 1, when the CBA expires. If not, go year to year and reopen if his four-seamer averages 97.5 mph or more by May 2027.
Stuff −10 since 2025, on one model with each season set against its league (−11 by a model that never saw him); fastball −1.4 mph; arm angle +2° (Pitch Lab). His projection doesn’t include it.
Options left: 3 (Keystone’s estimate).
- Extension: Paul Skenesdue Dec 1 · low confidence
- 2027 starter hook and bullpen rolesdue Spring training · medium confidence
Rotation (Winter Plan): Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller. Two times through for Mitch Keller once his medicals clear. Let Braxton Ashcraft face the order a third time (a toss-up). Let Paul Skenes face it too, pending the review of his velocity drop. Jared Jones: a 22-batter leash (about 81 pitches) after his arm injury, not an open third time; past it, decide by matchup (a toss-up). Give Bubba Chandler development innings on a 22-batter leash (about 82 pitches), once through the top of the order a third time, at about 1.0 ± 1.2 runs against a two-times-through hook (a toss-up); the goal is first two passes at .306 xwOBA or better, not a third-time skill, pending the review of his velocity drop. Ladder: Mason Montgomery and Yohan Ramírez in the late innings (within noise of each other); Evan Sisk and Luke Weaver setting up (within noise of each other). Move Evan Sisk into the leverage ladder. Move Isaac Mattson out of it.
Development · trends & plan
Tracked levels only. Monthly values; gaps mark the offseason. The number beside each line is its last month, with that month’s sample (faded under 50 PA or 150 pitches), not the season.
Plan for 2027
- 1 Velocity medium ask Recover the four-seamer velocity he showed in 2025
His four-seamer averaged 98.2 mph in 2025 and 96.8 in 2026. Pitchers his age typically hold their velocity over one season, so he is about 1.4 mph short of his own norm. The cause (health, mechanics, intent) needs a look first; velocity he has already shown is a realistic target, more isn’t. His arm angle moved from 23° in 2025 to 26° in 2026, a possible cause worth checking on video before changing anything.
Four-seamer velocity: 96.8 mph target 98.2 mph ≈8.5 runs/season (the rest of 9.4 runs at stake in a Stuff drop of 10 points both models agree on; the shape goal carries 0.9) Own history (Statcast) - 2 Pitch shape high ask Get the splitter back to its 2025 shape (2″ more drop)
In 2025 it averaged 93.7 mph, 0″ IVB, +13″ HB (405 thrown); in 2026, 93.2 mph, 2″, +13″ (291). On one model the pitch lost about 12 points of Stuff since 2025 (it grades 101 in 2026), and this year’s pitches with the 2025 movement grade about 107: the shape alone is worth about 7 points. It’s a shape he has already thrown, not a new one. His arm angle moved from 23° in 2025 to 26° in 2026, a possible cause worth checking on video before changing anything.
Splitter Stuff: 101 target 107 ≈0.9 runs/season (model estimate) Own history (Statcast)
Each goal is checked when his sample can tell the target from noise: the 2027 All-Star break if it can by then, else season’s end or the sample it needs; if no single season can, it’s a lean. Coach card
Trends · MLB
Clear changes
- ▼ fastball velocity 98.2 mph → 96.8 mph −1.4 mph 2025 → 2026 · MLB
- ▼ Stuff 114 → 104 −10 (−11 by a model that never saw him) 2025 → 2026 · MLB
- ▼ sinker velocity 97.6 mph → 96.6 mph −1.0 mph 2025 → 2026 · MLB
Pitching · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,890 pitches
Arsenal & Pitch Lab
Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch
| Pitch | Use | Velo | IVB | HB | Stuff | Loc | Whiff | xRV/100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam41% use | 41% | 96.8 | 13.0 | +12.6 | 99 | 108 | 30% | +0.97 |
| Sweeper16% use | 16% | 84.3 | 5.7 | −10.2 | 119 | 101 | 29% | +1.16 |
| Changeup12% use | 12% | 88.7 | 6.5 | +15.4 | 90 | 95 | 37% | −0.25 |
| Sinker12% use | 12% | 96.6 | 7.3 | +17.0 | 107 | 105 | 15% | +0.36 |
| Splitter10% use | 10% | 93.2 | 1.7 | +13.3 | 101 | 106 | 18% | −0.51 |
| Slider9% use | 9% | 86.7 | 1.9 | −3.3 | 108 | 110 | 36% | +1.27 |
Changeup grades 90 with below-average expected results; his sweeper grades 119. The best case is against lefties: the sweeper is worth +1.4 runs per 100 pitches more, 1.9 standard errors (136 and 289 pitches), short of the 2 needed. No mix change until it clears.
Most similar pitchers
Pitches like Skenes: same hand, shape, slot and mix
| Similarity | Player | Stuff | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | Zack Wheeler PHI · ’90 | 109 | 4.0 | 2.2 | Signed $42.0M |
| 52 | Jack Perkins ATH · ’99 | 103 | 0.8 | 0.7 | Pre-arb |
| 51 | Joe Ryan MIN · ’96 | 112 | 2.5 | 2.4 | Free agent |
| 50 | George Kirby SEA · ’98 | 101 | 2.5 | 2.6 | Arb |
| 49 | Luis Severino ATH · ’94 | 105 | 0.7 | 1.3 | Player option $22.0M |
Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.
Pitch locations · 2026
Where each pitch finishes, by batter side
Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →