Joe Ryan
- Free agent est. 3 yr × $17.2M ($12M–$27M) if his mutual option is declined · +1.3 wins to Pittsburgh’s Winter Plan as its #4 starter
2 cautions
- Holds a $13.0M mutual option for 2027; one side almost always declines.
- Free agency not confirmed by the contract data: Under six years of service after 2026 (at most 5 years, 33 days): a declined option would leave him under his club's control through arbitration (Keystone's reading of the CBA; the data don't show his contract's terms).
- Injured list 2026: Left glute strain (Aug 7–Sep 7)
Pitching · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,441 pitches
Arsenal & Pitch Lab
Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch
| Pitch | Use | Velo | IVB | HB | Stuff | Loc | Whiff | xRV/100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam44% use | 44% | 93.5 | 13.5 | +13.4 | 118 | 113 | 25% | +0.69 |
| Sweeper16% use | 16% | 80.4 | 0.8 | −14.6 | 110 | 104 | 37% | +2.64 |
| Splitter12% use | 12% | 87.9 | 3.3 | +16.7 | 87 | 107 | 22% | +0.37 |
| Knuckle curve11% use | 11% | 79.1 | −9.2 | −12.9 | 101 | 107 | 30% | +1.35 |
| Sinker9% use | 9% | 93.1 | 8.8 | +17.4 | 100 | 110 | 9% | −1.93 |
| Slider7% use | 7% | 86.3 | 4.5 | −1.1 | 95 | 105 | 26% | −2.00 |
No mix change or new pitch clears its bar. The arsenal is efficient for its shapes.
Most similar pitchers
Pitches like Ryan: same hand, shape, slot and mix
| Similarity | Player | Stuff | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | Zack Wheeler PHI · ’90 | 109 | 4.0 | 2.2 | Signed $42.0M |
| 58 | Jake Irvin WSH · ’97 | 98 | 0.5 | 0.4 | Arb |
| 55 | Will Warren NYY · ’99 | 102 | 2.2 | 2.0 | Pre-arb |
| 53 | Spencer Arrighetti TOR · ’00 | 109 | −0.2 | 0.4 | Arb |
| 53 | Aaron Nola PHI · ’93 | 101 | 1.3 | 1.0 | Signed $24.6M |
Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.
Pitch locations · 2026
Where each pitch finishes, by batter side
Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
His 2027 is a $13.0M mutual option, decided ≈ Nov 1–5 (either side can decline it). The Free-Agent Board expects it declined, so it prices him as a free agent. Caution: Under six years of service after 2026 (at most 5 years, 33 days): a declined option would leave him under his club's control through arbitration (Keystone's reading of the CBA; the data don't show his contract's terms). Contract Studio →
Minor leagues
MLB Stats API · public box-score data
| SeasonLevel | Level | Team | Age | G | PA / IP | PA / IP ·Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026AAA | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 30 | 1 | 3 IP | 3 IP · 3.00 ERA · 40.0% K · 0.0% BB |
ABS challenges · 2026
Baseball Savant