HOU · P

Hunter Brown

Age 28 B/T R/R 6′2″, 220 lb USA MLB debut 2022

40-man

Houston’s roster as it stands #1 starter · 127 IP · 2.3 WAR in the role
Injured list 2026: Right shoulder strain (Apr 5–Jun 16)
Trade read Available at a price: HOU 43% playoff odds; control through 2028.

Keystone Stuff 98 42nd pct

2026 fWAR 1.9

Projected 2027 WAR 2.6 at 142 IP · 2.3 in his 2027 role

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 1,881 pitches

Keystone Stuff 98

Keystone Location 90

Keystone Pitching 92

Run value (xRV) +0.53

Strikeout % 27.5%

Walk % 12.2%

Whiff % 26.7%

Chase % 27.5%

Fastball velo 96.1

Extension 6.7 ft

107.1 IP3.19 ERA3.77 FIP 53° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

RHP · arm angle 53° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Sinker31% use	31%	96.0	11.0	+15.2	108	94	21%	+1.30
Four-seam30% use	30%	96.2	16.7	+8.0	91	90	23%	+0.90
Knuckle curve18% use	18%	83.4	−16.4	−6.0	95	95	36%	+0.24
Changeup9% use	9%	87.5	4.9	+13.2	95	93	41%	−2.23
Slider9% use	9%	90.7	5.1	−3.7	102	101	21%	+0.12
Cutter2% use	2%	92.9	7.2	−2.8	97	101	37%	+0.94

Weak pitch to watch

Changeup grades 95 with below-average expected results; his sinker grades 108. The best case is against lefties: the sinker is worth +0.5 runs per 100 pitches more, 0.6 standard errors (260 and 150 pitches), short of the 2 needed. No mix change until it clears.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Brown: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
48	Shane Baz BAL · ’99	98	3.4	2.5	Signed $7.8M
41	Braxton Ashcraft PIT · ’99	102	3.5	3.0	Pre-arb
41	Cade Cavalli WSH · ’98	99	3.9	2.8	Signed $5.0M
40	Sean Burke CWS · ’99	96	3.2	2.2	Pre-arb
40	Taj Bradley MIN · ’01	104	2.8	2.4	Arb

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Four-seam 36%

41% zone

Sinker 23%

46% zone

Knuckle curve 20%

31% zone

Changeup 13%

33% zone

Slider 5%

48% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 2.6 WAR Arbitration $8.5M*

2028 2.5 WAR Arbitration $14.0M*

2029 2.4 WAR Free agent

2030 2.2 WAR Free agent

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2026AA	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	27	1	2 IP	2 IP · 0.00 ERA · 71.4% K · 0.0% BB
2026AAA	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	27	3	12.1 IP	12.1 IP · 2.19 ERA · 34.0% K · 6.4% BB

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As pitcher 0% 0/1 won · 0.0 runs