Players / Player profile
BAL · P

Shane Baz

Age 27 B/T R/R 6′3″, 200 lb USA MLB debut 2021
40-man
  • Baltimore’s roster as it stands #1 starter · 145 IP · 2.0 WAR in the role
  • Trade read Unlikely to be traded: Extended in Mar 2026 (5 yr, $68M (2026-30)): clubs rarely move a player they just committed to.
Keystone Stuff 98 39th pct
2026 fWAR 3.4
Projected 2027 WAR 2.5 at 176 IP · 2.0 in his 2027 role

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,910 pitches

Keystone Stuff 98 Keystone Stuff: 98, 39th percentile
Keystone Location 102 Keystone Location: 102, 64th percentile
Keystone Pitching 101 Keystone Pitching: 101, 57th percentile
Run value (xRV) 0.00 Run value (xRV): 0.00, 42nd percentile
Strikeout % 20.0% Strikeout %: 20.0%, 33rd percentile
Walk % 8.2% Walk %: 8.2%, 59th percentile
Whiff % 21.5% Whiff %: 21.5%, 19th percentile
Chase % 29.9% Chase %: 29.9%, 46th percentile
Fastball velo 95.7 Fastball velo: 95.7, 70th percentile
Extension 6.5 ft Extension: 6.5 ft, 56th percentile
179.2 IP4.11 ERA3.62 FIP 37° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

−20−20−10−100010102020← Glove sideArm side →Rise (IVB, in) →4SKCFCCHSI
RHP · arm angle 37° · how to read
PitchUseVeloIVBHBStuffLocWhiffxRV/100
Four-seam34% use34%95.816.5+9.41009816%−0.21
Knuckle curve33% use33%85.3−10.1−5.210110629%+0.23
Cutter15% use15%89.67.1−3.31009722%+0.53
Changeup9% use9%87.79.0+13.8879620%−2.14
Sinker9% use9%95.312.3+14.79110514%+1.26

No mix change or new pitch clears its bar. The arsenal is efficient for its shapes.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Baz: same hand, shape, slot and mix

SimilarityPlayerStuff’26 WAR’27 proj2027
60George Kirby SEA · ’981012.52.6Arb
59Braxton Ashcraft PIT · ’991023.53.0Pre-arb
58Sean Burke CWS · ’99963.22.2Pre-arb
56Cade Cavalli WSH · ’98993.92.8Signed $5.0M
54Brandon Pfaadt AZ · ’98962.22.0Signed $5.4M

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Four-seam 42%
48% zone
Knuckle curve 35%
44% zone
Changeup 15%
35% zone
Cutter 7%
53% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 2.5 WAR Guaranteed $7.8M
2028 2.4 WAR Guaranteed $10.8M
2029 2.3 WAR Guaranteed $21.8M
2030 2.1 WAR Guaranteed $25.8M

Contract Studio →

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As pitcher 40% 2/5 won · −0.1 runs
Keystone is an independent portfolio project. It is not affiliated with Major League Baseball or any club. Data: MLB Stats API, Baseball Savant, FanGraphs. Used under their terms for individual, non-commercial use.