Players / Player profile
CHC · 1B

Michael Busch

Age 28 B/T L/R 5′11″, 210 lb USA MLB debut 2023
40-man
  • The Cubs’ roster as it stands starts at DH · 601 PA · 1.7 WAR in the role
  • Trade read Available at a price: CHC 44% playoff odds; control through 2029.
xwOBA .331 wOBA .339
2026 fWAR 2.3
Projected 2027 WAR 2.2 at 614 PA · 1.7 in his 2027 role

Hitting · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB hitters with 300+ PA · 707 PA

xwOBA .331 xwOBA: .331, 64th percentile
Swing decisions +0.74 Swing decisions: +0.74, 80th percentile
Contact value −0.23 Contact value: −0.23, 37th percentile
Bat speed 68.7 Bat speed: 68.7, 12th percentile
Squared-up / swing 26% Squared-up / swing: 26%, 80th percentile
Blasts / swing 6% Blasts / swing: 6%, 26th percentile
EV90 102.3 EV90: 102.3, 26th percentile
Barrel % 9.1% Barrel %: 9.1%, 61st percentile
Chase % 25.0% Chase %: 25.0%, 79th percentile
Zone contact 84.0% Zone contact: 84.0%, 45th percentile
Strikeout % 23.2% Strikeout %: 23.2%, 41st percentile
Walk % 12.6% Walk %: 12.6%, 92nd percentile

Platoon splits · swing path

By pitcher handedness

vsPAwOBAxwOBAK%BB%ChaseDecisionsContact
LHP205.346.34121%12%23%+0.72+0.80
RHP502.336.32724%13%26%+0.75−0.62
Attack angle
15.3° (50% in 5–20°)
Attack direction
−3.1°
Swing length
7.0 ft
Fast-swing rate
5%
Pull-air %
18.0%
Hard-hit %
39.7%
Slash · wRC+
.242/.352/.393 · 112

Zone map · 2026

Where he does damage, and where to pitch him

−0.3−0.3−0.2−0.2+1.90.0+2.8+1.9−0.5+1.0+1.6+3.0−1.2+1.1+1.3+0.8+1.1−1.1−2.3−0.4+0.2+0.7−1.1−0.2+0.6LHB

Does the most damage middle-away (+3.0 vs. league per 100; 1.6 standard errors on 156 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).

Weakest down and in (−2.3), but only 1.1 standard errors from average on 109 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.

Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average LHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 2,574 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).

Most similar hitters

Swings like Busch: bat path, contact quality and approach

SimilarityPlayerxwOBA’26 WAR’27 proj2027
59Hunter Feduccia LAD · ’97.3150.50.1—
54Nick Sogard BOS · ’97.3151.20.9Pre-arb
52Travis Bazzana CLE · ’02.3002.82.4Pre-arb
52Mike Yastrzemski ATL · ’90.3090.60.4Signed $10.0M
49Tyler Stephenson CIN · ’96.3301.31.5Free agent

Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.

Fielding

2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.

2027 rating by position · best fit first, on the total with the position’s worth
1B +0.2 −12.3
Outs Above Average by position
SeasonPosOAARangeArm, DPRunsBatters
20261B+2+2−0.7+1.35,865
20251B−1−1−0.5−1.54,900
20242B−1−10.0−1.070
20241B+2+2−1.0+1.04,779
20232B000.00.038
20231B00+0.1+0.138
20233B−4−3+0.5−2.5427

Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.

Range by direction (OAA at 1B)
2025 · 1B2026 · 1B In (charging) 0+1Back +1+1Toward 3B line −4−3Toward 1B line +1+3vs. RHH +20vs. LHH −3+3

At 1B in 2026, the biggest loss came toward 3B line (−3 outs): a coaching target.

Tools (percentile; arm among 1Bs)
Arm at 1B 70.9 mph · 17th
Sprint speed 26.0 ft/s · 17th
Zone rating (Keystone expected outs)
SeasonZoneBallsOuts vs. exp.
20261B339+7.4
20251B277+1.0
20241B258+2.4

The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.

Compare in the Fielding Lab →

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 2.2 WAR Arbitration $4.3M*
2028 1.8 WAR Arbitration $7.3M*
2029 1.3 WAR Arbitration $11.7M*
2030 0.7 WAR Free agent

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As batter 35% 7/20 won · +0.4 runs
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