Ceddanne Rafaela
- Boston’s roster as it stands starts at SS · 537 PA · 2.3 WAR in the role
- Injured list 2026: Right quadriceps strain (Sep 6–Sep 23)
- Trade read Unlikely to be traded: Young, controllable regular (age 26, control through 2032): the kind of player clubs build around.
Hitting · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB hitters with 300+ PA · 575 PA
Platoon splits · swing path
By pitcher handedness
| vs | PA | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Chase | Decisions | Contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LHP | 153 | .367 | .292 | 24% | 5% | 44% | −1.54 | +0.22 |
| RHP | 422 | .335 | .287 | 19% | 3% | 46% | −1.67 | +0.19 |
- Attack angle
- 8.6° (51% in 5–20°)
- Attack direction
- −0.2°
- Swing length
- 7.3 ft
- Fast-swing rate
- 6%
- Pull-air %
- 13.8%
- Hard-hit %
- 32.2%
- Slash · wRC+
- .285/.321/.444 · 110
Zone map · 2026
Where he does damage, and where to pitch him
Does the most damage middle-in (+3.4 vs. league per 100; 1.6 standard errors on 86 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).
Weakest down and away (−0.3), but only 0.1 standard errors from average on 96 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.
Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average RHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 1,902 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).
Most similar hitters
Swings like Rafaela: bat path, contact quality and approach
| Similarity | Player | xwOBA | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | Nathan Church STL · ’00 | .284 | 0.4 | 0.6 | Pre-arb |
| 70 | Andrés Giménez TOR · ’98 | .276 | 2.8 | 1.9 | Signed $23.6M |
| 61 | Lourdes Gurriel Jr. AZ · ’93 | .273 | −1.0 | 0.0 | Free agent |
| 54 | Jake McCarthy COL · ’97 | .323 | 2.7 | 1.8 | Arb |
| 53 | Christian Koss SF · ’98 | .241 | 0.0 | 0.3 | — |
Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.
Fielding
2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.
| Season | Pos | OAA | Range | Arm, DP | Runs | Batters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | CF | +17 | +15 | +1.2 | +16.2 | 4,945 |
| 2025 | 2B | 0 | 0 | +0.3 | +0.3 | 697 |
| 2025 | CF | +21 | +19 | +2.1 | +21.1 | 4,985 |
| 2024 | RF | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13 |
| 2024 | 3B | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 28 |
| 2024 | 2B | 0 | 0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | 197 |
| 2024 | SS | −7 | −5 | +0.8 | −4.2 | 2,695 |
| 2024 | CF | +5 | +5 | +0.8 | +5.8 | 2,725 |
| 2023 | 2B | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 52 |
| 2023 | SS | −1 | −1 | 0.0 | −1.0 | 216 |
| 2023 | CF | +2 | +1 | 0.0 | +1.0 | 468 |
Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.
At SS in 2024, the biggest loss came toward 1B line (−6 outs): a coaching target.
Tools (percentile; arm among CFs)| Play | Made | Chances | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 10 | 33 | 30% |
| ★★★★ | 4 | 5 | 80% |
| ★★★ | 12 | 14 | 86% |
| ★★ | 21 | 22 | 95% |
| ★ | 17 | 18 | 94% |
| Season | Zone | Balls | Outs vs. exp. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | CF | 558 | +10.6 |
| 2025 | CF | 512 | +18.4 |
| 2025 | 2B | 52 | −4.0 |
| 2024 | SS | 255 | −3.4 |
| 2024 | CF | 301 | +1.0 |
The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
ABS challenges · 2026
Baseball Savant