Players / Player profile
AZ · LF

Lars Nootbaar

Age 29 B/T L/R 6′1″, 205 lb USA MLB debut 2021
40-man
  • Arizona’s roster as it stands starts at DH · 422 PA · 0.4 WAR in the role
  • Trade read Available at a price: AZ 51% playoff odds; control through 2027.
xwOBA .346 wOBA .325
2026 fWAR 1.0
Projected 2027 WAR 0.9 at 425 PA · 0.4 in his 2027 role

Hitting · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB hitters with 300+ PA · 331 PA

xwOBA .346 xwOBA: .346, 81st percentile
Swing decisions +0.30 Swing decisions: +0.30, 59th percentile
Contact value +0.96 Contact value: +0.96, 76th percentile
Bat speed 73.3 Bat speed: 73.3, 67th percentile
Squared-up / swing 28% Squared-up / swing: 28%, 88th percentile
Blasts / swing 11% Blasts / swing: 11%, 89th percentile
EV90 106.3 EV90: 106.3, 77th percentile
Barrel % 10.1% Barrel %: 10.1%, 68th percentile
Chase % 20.7% Chase %: 20.7%, 96th percentile
Zone contact 87.3% Zone contact: 87.3%, 69th percentile
Strikeout % 21.1% Strikeout %: 21.1%, 53rd percentile
Walk % 13.0% Walk %: 13.0%, 94th percentile

Platoon splits · swing path

By pitcher handedness

vsPAwOBAxwOBAK%BB%ChaseDecisionsContact
LHP51.228.30725%16%18%+0.27−1.58
RHP280.342.35320%13%21%+0.30+1.32
Attack angle
9.1° (54% in 5–20°)
Attack direction
0.0°
Swing length
6.8 ft
Fast-swing rate
32%
Pull-air %
13.8%
Hard-hit %
49.8%
Slash · wRC+
.239/.342/.379 · 102

Zone map · 2026

Where he does damage, and where to pitch him

+0.4+0.80.0−1.7−0.8+0.5+2.3+1.5−4.0−0.1+0.6−1.0−3.2−0.6+3.3+1.4−1.0−1.1−3.0+1.3+0.2+0.3+1.0+1.2+1.2LHB

Does the most damage up and away (+2.3 vs. league per 100; 1.0 standard errors on 51 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).

Weakest up and in (−4.0), but only 1.7 standard errors from average on 37 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.

Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average LHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 1,283 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).

Most similar hitters

Swings like Nootbaar: bat path, contact quality and approach

SimilarityPlayerxwOBA’26 WAR’27 proj2027
56Ryan Jeffers MIN · ’97.3442.61.8Free agent
53Bryan Reynolds PIT · ’95.3552.91.2Signed $15.3M
47Xander Bogaerts SD · ’92.3252.61.6Signed $25.5M
46Juan Soto NYM · ’98.4173.13.9Signed $57.5M
45William Contreras MIL · ’97.3343.03.0Club option $14.5M

Ryan Jeffers (similarity 56, 1.8 WAR projected for 2027) is a free agent this winter: a similar swing available without trading talent, at a free agent’s price. Opportunity Finder →

Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.

Fielding

2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.

2027 rating by position · best fit first, on the total with the position’s worth
RF −1.6 −9.1
LF −2.0 −9.5
CF −13.3 −13.8
1B −1.5prior −17.0
Outs Above Average by position
SeasonPosOAARangeArm, DPRunsBatters
2026CF000.00.0115
2026RF000.00.0292
2026LF+1+1+0.2+1.21,940
2025CF00−0.2−0.2394
2025RF+2+2−0.5+1.5822
2025LF−3−3−2.2−5.23,618
2024CF−1−1−0.4−1.4514
2024LF00−0.8−0.8993
2024RF+2+2−1.7+0.32,119
2023LF+2+2+0.2+2.2698
2023RF00+0.3+0.31,035
2023CF+1+1+0.7+1.72,484

Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.

Range by direction (OAA at LF)
2025 · LF2026 · LF In (charging) 0+1Back 0+1Toward 3B line −1+1Toward 1B line 0−1vs. RHH +10vs. LHH −2+2
Tools (percentile; arm among LFs)
Arm at LF 88.6 mph · 80th
Sprint speed 27.5 ft/s · 52nd
Reaction −1.1 ft · 12th
Burst −1.4 ft · 13th
Route +0.2 ft · 59th
Catch difficulty (latest season)
PlayMadeChancesRate
★★★★★0130%
★★★★00—
★★★4580%
★★101191%
★1111100%
Zone rating (Keystone expected outs)
SeasonZoneBallsOuts vs. exp.
2026LF210+1.9
2025RF92+0.7
2025LF313−7.5
2025CF44−0.6
2024RF215+4.5
2024LF89+0.8
2024CF67−0.2

The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.

Compare in the Fielding Lab →

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 0.9 WAR Arbitration $8.4M*
2028 0.6 WAR Free agent
2029 0.3 WAR Free agent
2030 −0.1 WAR Free agent

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevelLevelTeamAgeGPA / IPPA / IP ·Line
2026AAPalm Beach Cardinals2824 PA 4 PA · .667/.750/1.667 · 1 HR · 25.0% K · 25.0% BB
2026AAAASpringfield Cardinals28417 PA 17 PA · .167/.412/.250 · 0 HR · 11.8% K · 29.4% BB
2026AAAAAAMemphis Redbirds28623 PA 23 PA · .250/.348/.550 · 2 HR · 13.0% K · 13.0% BB
2025AAAASpringfield Cardinals27314 PA 14 PA · .286/.286/.286 · 0 HR · 28.6% K · 0.0% BB

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As batter 25% 1/4 won · −0.1 runs
Keystone is an independent portfolio project. It is not affiliated with Major League Baseball or any club. Data: MLB Stats API, Baseball Savant, FanGraphs. Used under their terms for individual, non-commercial use.