Luis Arraez
- Free agent est. 2 yr × $16.3M ($12M–$25M) · +1.1 wins to Pittsburgh’s Winter Plan as a bench bat
1 caution
- Big walk year: 4.1 WAR in 2026 against a 1.6-WAR projection. With the walk year at his projection the model would price him at $12.5M a year, not $16.3M. Last winter's 27 deals after such seasons came in about 8% under the estimate on average (± 13%): no clear premium or discount beyond what the model already pays.
- PNC Park Pittsburgh’s home park: +2.1 runs per 600 PA against an average park (+0.21 wins over 595 PA; his WAR leaves this out); home runs ×0.96 (×0.99 for left-handed hitters as a group). Park Fit →
Hitting · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB hitters with 300+ PA · 650 PA
Platoon splits · swing path
By pitcher handedness
| vs | PA | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Chase | Decisions | Contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LHP | 210 | .356 | .287 | 7% | 3% | 34% | −0.35 | −0.57 |
| RHP | 440 | .333 | .322 | 3% | 5% | 33% | −0.81 | +0.36 |
- Attack angle
- 8.6° (52% in 5–20°)
- Attack direction
- +2.7°
- Swing length
- 5.9 ft
- Fast-swing rate
- 0%
- Pull-air %
- 15.2%
- Hard-hit %
- 19.4%
- Slash · wRC+
- .310/.345/.419 · 110
Zone map · 2026
Where he does damage, and where to pitch him
Does the most damage up and in (+5.0 vs. league per 100; 2.3 standard errors on 85 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).
Weakest down over the middle (−2.6), but only 1.4 standard errors from average on 154 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.
Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average LHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 2,270 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).
Most similar hitters
Swings like Arraez: bat path, contact quality and approach
| Similarity | Player | xwOBA | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | Chandler Simpson TB · ’00 | .268 | 2.3 | 1.7 | Pre-arb |
| 19 | Jacob Wilson ATH · ’02 | .285 | 1.5 | 2.0 | Signed $2.9M |
| 5 | Steven Kwan CLE · ’97 | .331 | 3.8 | 2.9 | Arb |
| 1 | Christian Vázquez HOU · ’90 | .237 | 0.1 | −0.2 | Free agent |
| 0 | Nathan Lukes TOR · ’94 | .299 | 2.2 | 1.6 | Arb |
Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.
Fielding
2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.
| Season | Pos | OAA | Range | Arm, DP | Runs | Batters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2B | +12 | +9 | +1.1 | +10.1 | 5,441 |
| 2025 | 2B | −2 | −2 | +0.1 | −1.9 | 335 |
| 2025 | 1B | −7 | −5 | −4.6 | −9.6 | 4,190 |
| 2024 | 2B | −7 | −5 | −0.1 | −5.1 | 1,492 |
| 2024 | 1B | −5 | −4 | −2.1 | −6.1 | 2,297 |
| 2023 | 1B | −3 | −2 | −0.3 | −2.3 | 392 |
| 2023 | 2B | −11 | −8 | +0.2 | −7.8 | 4,742 |
Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.
At 2B in 2026, the biggest loss came back (−2 outs): a coaching target.
Tools (percentile; arm among 2Bs)| Season | Zone | Balls | Outs vs. exp. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2B | 559 | −3.7 |
| 2025 | 1B | 249 | −3.2 |
| 2024 | 2B | 134 | −4.2 |
| 2024 | 1B | 145 | −1.6 |
The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
A pending free agent: no club controls his 2027. Contract Studio →
ABS challenges · 2026
Baseball Savant