Nathan Lukes
- Toronto’s roster as it stands starts at LF · 463 PA · 1.6 WAR in the role
- Injured list 2026: Left hamstring strain (Apr 25–May 25)
- Trade read Available at a price: TOR 46% playoff odds; control through 2030.
Hitting · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB hitters with 300+ PA · 450 PA
Platoon splits · swing path
By pitcher handedness
| vs | PA | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Chase | Decisions | Contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LHP | 86 | .282 | .273 | 19% | 5% | 38% | −1.96 | −0.49 |
| RHP | 364 | .340 | .305 | 13% | 6% | 33% | −0.45 | −0.19 |
- Attack angle
- 5.9° (44% in 5–20°)
- Attack direction
- +9.3°
- Swing length
- 6.4 ft
- Fast-swing rate
- 3%
- Pull-air %
- 12.4%
- Hard-hit %
- 29.1%
- Slash · wRC+
- .277/.327/.387 · 102
Zone map · 2026
Where he does damage, and where to pitch him
Does the most damage middle-in (+4.3 vs. league per 100; 2.0 standard errors on 82 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).
Weakest down over the middle (−5.2; 2.4 standard errors below average on 86 pitches). Pitchers should attack here.
Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average LHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 1,610 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).
Most similar hitters
Swings like Lukes: bat path, contact quality and approach
| Similarity | Player | xwOBA | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | Christian Vázquez HOU · ’90 | .237 | 0.1 | −0.2 | Free agent |
| 50 | Nicky Lopez TEX · ’95 | .281 | 0.8 | 0.3 | Free agent |
| 47 | Jacob Wilson ATH · ’02 | .285 | 1.5 | 2.0 | Signed $2.9M |
| 47 | Zach McKinstry DET · ’95 | .288 | 0.7 | 1.2 | Arb |
| 46 | Dominic Smith ATL · ’95 | .301 | −0.5 | −0.2 | Free agent |
Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.
Fielding
2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.
| Season | Pos | OAA | Range | Arm, DP | Runs | Batters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | CF | 0 | 0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | 280 |
| 2026 | LF | 0 | 0 | +0.5 | +0.5 | 327 |
| 2026 | RF | +2 | +2 | +5.3 | +7.3 | 3,362 |
| 2025 | CF | −1 | −1 | +1.0 | 0.0 | 896 |
| 2025 | LF | −1 | 0 | +1.1 | +1.1 | 1,022 |
| 2025 | RF | +4 | +4 | +2.0 | +6.0 | 1,901 |
| 2024 | CF | −2 | −2 | +0.2 | −1.8 | 117 |
| 2024 | RF | 0 | 0 | +0.5 | +0.5 | 227 |
| 2024 | LF | 0 | 0 | +0.7 | +0.7 | 384 |
| 2023 | CF | 0 | 0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | 26 |
| 2023 | LF | 0 | 0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | 66 |
| 2023 | RF | 0 | 0 | +0.5 | +0.5 | 199 |
Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.
| Play | Made | Chances | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 1 | 16 | 6% |
| ★★★★ | 0 | 3 | 0% |
| ★★★ | 6 | 10 | 60% |
| ★★ | 10 | 11 | 91% |
| ★ | 28 | 28 | 100% |
| Season | Zone | Balls | Outs vs. exp. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | RF | 303 | +4.7 |
| 2025 | RF | 195 | −1.1 |
| 2025 | LF | 89 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | CF | 114 | −1.9 |
| 2024 | LF | 42 | 0.0 |
The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →
Minor leagues
MLB Stats API · public box-score data
| SeasonLevel | Level | Team | Age | G | PA / IP | PA / IP ·Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026A | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 31 | 4 | 13 PA | 13 PA · .333/.462/.667 · 1 HR · 7.7% K · 23.1% BB |
| 2025AAA | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 30 | 2 | 7 PA | 7 PA · .571/.571/1.000 · 1 HR · 14.3% K · 0.0% BB |