Players / Player profile
ATL · DH

Dominic Smith

Age 31 B/T L/L 5′11″, 224 lb USA MLB debut 2017
40-man
  • Free agent est. 1 yr × $1.1M ($548K–$3M)
xwOBA .301 wOBA .313
2026 fWAR −0.5
Projected 2027 WAR −0.2 Keystone Marcel+ at 373 PA

Hitting · 2026

299 PA: percentiles need 300+, so values only

xwOBA .301 xwOBA: .301
Swing decisions +0.43 Swing decisions: +0.43
Contact value −0.16 Contact value: −0.16
Bat speed 68.8 Bat speed: 68.8
Squared-up / swing 27% Squared-up / swing: 27%
Blasts / swing 6% Blasts / swing: 6%
EV90 102.0 EV90: 102.0
Barrel % 5.8% Barrel %: 5.8%
Chase % 31.0% Chase %: 31.0%
Zone contact 86.8% Zone contact: 86.8%
Strikeout % 16.1% Strikeout %: 16.1%
Walk % 7.4% Walk %: 7.4%

Platoon splits · swing path

By pitcher handedness

vsPAwOBAxwOBAK%BB%ChaseDecisionsContact
LHP39.230.22015%10%27%+0.74−3.41
RHP260.325.31316%7%31%+0.38+0.21
Attack angle
8.4° (49% in 5–20°)
Attack direction
−4.4°
Swing length
6.9 ft
Fast-swing rate
6%
Pull-air %
18.1%
Hard-hit %
32.9%
Slash · wRC+
.253/.311/.383 · 91

Zone map · 2026

Where he does damage, and where to pitch him

−1.9+2.7−1.1−1.5+1.3−0.9+2.2+1.1−2.8+0.5−0.4−0.8+0.6−1.7−0.3+0.3−0.6−0.8+0.6−0.7+0.8−0.8−2.2−0.7−0.4LHB

Does the most damage up and away (+2.2 vs. league per 100; 1.0 standard errors on 53 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).

Weakest up and in (−2.8), but only 1.2 standard errors from average on 28 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.

Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average LHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 1,068 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).

Most similar hitters

Swings like Smith: bat path, contact quality and approach

SimilarityPlayerxwOBA’26 WAR’27 proj2027
66Andruw Monasterio BOS · ’97.289−0.8−0.2Arb
65Cooper Pratt MIL · ’04.3201.71.9Signed $3.9M
63Vaughn Grissom LAA · ’01.3090.20.1—
62Bryson Stott PHI · ’97.3323.82.5Arb
62Jacob Young WSH · ’99.3172.31.9Arb

Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.

Fielding

2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.

2027 rating by position · best fit first, on the total with the position’s worth
1B +0.2 −12.3
Outs Above Average by position
SeasonPosOAARangeArm, DPRunsBatters
2026LF00−0.1−0.124
20261B−1−1−0.2−1.251
20251B−3−2+2.3+0.31,763
20241B+2+1+1.0+2.02,620
20231B+1+1+4.3+5.35,491

Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.

Range by direction (OAA at 1B)
2025 · 1B2026 · 1B In (charging) −20Back 00Toward 3B line −1−1Toward 1B line −10vs. RHH 00vs. LHH −4−1
Tools (percentile; arm among 1Bs)
Arm at 1B 65.6 mph · 6th
Sprint speed 26.1 ft/s · 20th
Catch difficulty (latest season)
PlayMadeChancesRate
★★★★★00—
★★★★00—
★★★00—
★★00—
★00—
Zone rating (Keystone expected outs)
SeasonZoneBallsOuts vs. exp.
20251B118−0.8
20241B1750.0

The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.

Compare in the Fielding Lab →

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 −0.2 WAR Free agent
2028 −0.7 WAR Free agent
2029 −1.1 WAR Free agent
2030 −1.4 WAR Free agent

A pending free agent: no club controls his 2027. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevelLevelTeamAgeGPA / IPPA / IP ·Line
2025AAAAAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders3045189 PA 189 PA · .255/.333/.448 · 8 HR · 15.9% K · 10.6% BB

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As batter 50% 5/10 won · 0.0 runs
Keystone is an independent portfolio project. It is not affiliated with Major League Baseball or any club. Data: MLB Stats API, Baseball Savant, FanGraphs. Used under their terms for individual, non-commercial use.