Players / Player profile
MIL · RF

Luis Lara

Age 21 B/T S/R 5′7″, 169 lb Venezuela MLB debut 2026
40-man FV 45 · #11 in org
  • Milwaukee’s roster as it stands fourth outfielder · 309 PA (RF 231, CF 78) · 0.5 WAR in the role
  • Trade read Unlikely to be traded: Extended in Jun 2026 (7 yr, $31M (2026-32), 2033-35 club options): clubs rarely move a player they just committed to.
xwOBA .294 wOBA .293
2026 fWAR −0.1
Projected 2027 WAR 0.5 at 306 PA · 0.5 in his 2027 role

Hitting · 2026

212 PA: percentiles need 300+, so values only

xwOBA .294 xwOBA: .294
Swing decisions +0.67 Swing decisions: +0.67
Contact value −0.38 Contact value: −0.38
Bat speed 71.4 Bat speed: 71.4
Squared-up / swing 25% Squared-up / swing: 25%
Blasts / swing 7% Blasts / swing: 7%
EV90 102.7 EV90: 102.7
Barrel % 3.4% Barrel %: 3.4%
Chase % 24.6% Chase %: 24.6%
Zone contact 88.2% Zone contact: 88.2%
Strikeout % 21.2% Strikeout %: 21.2%
Walk % 8.5% Walk %: 8.5%

Platoon splits · swing path

By pitcher handedness

vsPAwOBAxwOBAK%BB%ChaseDecisionsContact
LHP72.276.26717%6%28%0.00−1.34
RHP140.302.30924%10%23%+0.97+0.15
Attack angle
1.0° (28% in 5–20°)
Attack direction
+3.7°
Swing length
6.9 ft
Fast-swing rate
15%
Pull-air %
8.8%
Hard-hit %
41.5%
Slash · wRC+
.246/.311/.325 · 79

Zone map · 2026

Where he does damage, and where to pitch him

−0.4+0.6−0.5+0.3−0.1−0.7−1.2−1.7−3.6−0.3+0.1+0.9−3.3−2.4+0.3−1.8−0.5−1.9+1.3−0.2+0.1+2.3+0.3+1.3+1.0LHB

Does the most damage down and in (+1.3 vs. league per 100; 0.6 standard errors on 29 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).

Weakest up and in (−3.6), but only 1.7 standard errors from average on 20 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.

Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average LHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 548 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).

Most similar hitters

Swings like Lara: bat path, contact quality and approach

SimilarityPlayerxwOBA’26 WAR’27 proj2027
59Masyn Winn STL · ’02.2942.32.8Arb
58Edgar Quero CWS · ’03.283−0.50.2—
58Ben Williamson TB · ’00.2890.10.5—
57Alejandro Osuna TEX · ’02.308−0.40.1—
49Carlos Cortes ATH · ’97.300−0.70.0Pre-arb

Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.

Fielding

2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.

2027 rating by position · best fit first, on the total with the position’s worth
RF +1.6 −5.9
LF −0.4prior −7.9
CF −10.7 −8.2
1B +2.1prior −10.4
Outs Above Average by position
SeasonPosOAARangeArm, DPRunsBatters
2026LF000.00.037
2026CF−2−1−0.1−1.1491
2026RF+3+2−0.3+1.71,351

Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.

Range by direction (OAA at RF)
2026 · RF In (charging) −2Back +2Toward 3B line −1Toward 1B line +2vs. RHH 0vs. LHH +2

At RF in 2026, the biggest loss came in (charging) (−2 outs): a coaching target.

Tools (percentile; arm among RFs)
Arm at RF 88.2 mph · 47th
Sprint speed 28.4 ft/s · 80th
Reaction −0.1 ft · 48th
Burst +0.9 ft · 76th
Route +0.6 ft · 84th
Catch difficulty (latest season)
PlayMadeChancesRate
★★★★★010%
★★★★33100%
★★★2450%
★★81173%
★151694%
Zone rating (Keystone expected outs)
SeasonZoneBallsOuts vs. exp.
2026RF139+6.8
2026CF43−0.1

The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.

Compare in the Fielding Lab →

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 0.5 WAR Guaranteed $2.3M
2028 0.7 WAR Guaranteed $3.3M
2029 0.9 WAR Guaranteed $4.3M
2030 1.0 WAR Guaranteed $5.3M

Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevelLevelTeamAgeGPA / IPPA / IP ·Line
2026AAAAAANashville Sounds2178346 PA 346 PA · .321/.432/.470 · 9 HR · 13.9% K · 15.6% BB
2025AAAABiloxi Shuckers20136612 PA 612 PA · .257/.369/.343 · 2 HR · 16.2% K · 14.1% BB

FanGraphs: FV 45 · ETA 2027. Public pitch tracking exists only at Triple-A and some Florida State League parks.

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As batter 29% 2/7 won · −0.2 runs
Keystone is an independent portfolio project. It is not affiliated with Major League Baseball or any club. Data: MLB Stats API, Baseball Savant, FanGraphs. Used under their terms for individual, non-commercial use.