CIN · P
Chase Burns
Age 23 B/T R/R 6′3″, 210 lb Italy MLB debut 2025
- Cincinnati’s roster as it stands #1 starter · 132 IP · 3.3 WAR in the role
- Injured list 2026: Right groin strain (Sep 20–Sep 28)
- Trade read Unlikely to be traded: Extended in Jul 2026 (7 yr, $105M (2027-33)): clubs rarely move a player they just committed to.
Keystone Stuff 119 95th pct
2026 fWAR 4.3
Projected 2027 WAR 3.8 at 151 IP · 3.3 in his 2027 role
Pitching · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,569 pitches
154.1 IP2.86 ERA3.24 FIP 53° arm
Arsenal & Pitch Lab
Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch
| Pitch | Use | Velo | IVB | HB | Stuff | Loc | Whiff | xRV/100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam55% use | 55% | 97.6 | 18.5 | +3.4 | 108 | 101 | 17% | +0.15 |
| Slider39% use | 39% | 90.2 | 0.4 | −3.2 | 122 | 101 | 52% | +1.98 |
| Changeup5% use | 5% | 90.2 | 10.3 | +14.8 | 103 | 87 | 39% | −3.75 |
No mix change or new pitch clears its bar. The arsenal is efficient for its shapes.
Most similar pitchers
Pitches like Burns: same hand, shape, slot and mix
| Similarity | Player | Stuff | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | Eury Pérez MIA · ’03 | 112 | 2.4 | 2.6 | Arb |
| 43 | Jared Jones PIT · ’01 | 106 | 2.6 | 2.4 | Arb |
| 43 | Jacob deGrom TEX · ’88 | 110 | 4.3 | 1.6 | Signed $37.0M |
| 37 | Jack Leiter TEX · ’00 | 103 | 0.5 | 1.2 | Pre-arb |
| 36 | Andrew Painter PHI · ’03 | 102 | 1.1 | 1.3 | Pre-arb |
Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.
Pitch locations · 2026
Where each pitch finishes, by batter side
Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
2027 3.8 WAR Guaranteed $2.8M
2028 4.1 WAR Guaranteed $8.3M
2029 4.2 WAR Guaranteed $12.8M
2030 4.3 WAR Guaranteed $15.3M
Minor leagues
MLB Stats API · public box-score data
| SeasonLevel | Level | Team | Age | G | PA / IP | PA / IP ·Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025A+ | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 22 | 3 | 11.2 IP | 11.2 IP · 3.09 ERA · 44.4% K · 11.1% BB |
| 2025AA | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 22 | 8 | 42 IP | 42 IP · 1.29 ERA · 36.4% K · 2.6% BB |
| 2025AAA | AAA | Louisville Bats | 22 | 2 | 12.1 IP | 12.1 IP · 2.19 ERA · 30.4% K · 8.7% BB |