CIN · P

Rhett Lowder

Age 24 B/T R/R 6′1″, 200 lb USA MLB debut 2024

40-man FV 50 · #3 in org

Cincinnati’s roster as it stands #4 starter · 124 IP · 1.4 WAR in the role
Injured list 2026: Right shoulder pain (May 13–Jun 7)
Trade read Unlikely to be traded: Young and cheap for years (age 25, about $43M of surplus value through 2030): a core piece.

Keystone Stuff 81 2nd pct

2026 fWAR 1.3

Projected 2027 WAR 1.5 at 137 IP · 1.4 in his 2027 role

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,296 pitches

Keystone Stuff 81

Keystone Location 106

Keystone Pitching 89

Run value (xRV) −0.84

Strikeout % 17.1%

Walk % 9.3%

Whiff % 18.6%

Chase % 26.6%

Fastball velo 93.4

Extension 6.1 ft

133.1 IP5.74 ERA4.70 FIP 28° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

RHP · arm angle 28° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Sinker30% use	30%	93.2	6.7	+17.0	93	109	7%	−0.89
Slider27% use	27%	85.2	−1.2	−2.3	91	109	32%	−0.14
Four-seam20% use	20%	93.7	13.4	+10.4	71	97	12%	−1.31
Changeup20% use	20%	86.5	0.4	+17.4	88	96	23%	−0.95
Curveball3% use	3%	80.8	−12.5	−11.4	80	88	15%	−2.77

No mix change or new pitch clears its bar. The arsenal is efficient for its shapes.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Lowder: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
48	Brayan Bello BOS · ’99	85	1.0	1.4	Signed $8.7M
45	Michael Lorenzen TOR · ’92	84	0.2	0.3	Free agent
42	Bryce Elder ATL · ’99	80	1.2	1.1	Arb
42	Brad Lord WSH · ’00	89	0.3	0.6	Pre-arb
41	Adrian Houser SF · ’93	90	0.4	0.7	Signed $11.0M

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Four-seam 26%

46% zone

Changeup 25%

30% zone

Sinker 24%

60% zone

Slider 21%

33% zone

Curveball 3%

19% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 1.5 WAR Pre-arb $780K*

2028 1.7 WAR Arbitration $3.0M*

2029 1.8 WAR Arbitration $5.2M*

2030 1.8 WAR Arbitration $8.4M*

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2026AAA	AAA	Louisville Bats	24	1	5 IP	5 IP · 5.40 ERA · 38.1% K · 0.0% BB
2025A+	A+	Dayton Dragons	23	1	3 IP	3 IP · 12.00 ERA · 29.4% K · 5.9% BB
2025AAA	AAA	Louisville Bats	23	3	3.1 IP	3.1 IP · 13.50 ERA · 15.8% K · 10.5% BB
2025ROK	ROK	ACL Reds	23	1	3 IP	3 IP · 6.00 ERA · 38.5% K · 0.0% BB

FanGraphs: FV 50 · ETA 2026 · #111 overall. Public pitch tracking exists only at Triple-A and some Florida State League parks.