ATL · P

Bryce Elder

Age 27 B/T R/R 6′2″, 220 lb USA MLB debut 2022

40-man

Atlanta’s roster as it stands #3 starter · 136 IP · 0.9 WAR in the role
Injured list 2026: Right knee surgery (Sep 9–Sep 28)
Trade read Available at a price: ATL 30% playoff odds; control through 2029.

Keystone Stuff 80 2nd pct

2026 fWAR 1.2

Projected 2027 WAR 1.1 at 160 IP · 0.9 in his 2027 role

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,245 pitches

Keystone Stuff 80

Keystone Location 108

Keystone Pitching 87

Run value (xRV) −0.27

Strikeout % 19.1%

Walk % 7.7%

Whiff % 21.6%

Chase % 27.6%

Fastball velo 91.6

Extension 6.3 ft

149.0 IP4.11 ERA4.62 FIP 48° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

RHP · arm angle 48° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Sinker28% use	28%	91.0	8.1	+13.7	88	102	12%	−0.25
Four-seam22% use	22%	92.4	15.4	+4.2	75	103	17%	−0.20
Slider22% use	22%	83.1	−3.3	−3.3	91	110	29%	−0.42
Cutter15% use	15%	88.5	10.3	−1.9	91	107	20%	−0.89
Changeup12% use	12%	85.7	3.9	+12.0	86	99	31%	+0.58

No mix change or new pitch clears its bar. The arsenal is efficient for its shapes.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Elder: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
55	J.T. Ginn ATH · ’99	87	1.7	1.6	Pre-arb
46	Stephen Kolek KC · ’97	90	0.5	1.0	Pre-arb
45	Jack Kochanowicz LAA · ’00	85	0.2	0.2	Pre-arb
45	Michael Lorenzen TOR · ’92	84	0.2	0.3	Free agent
45	Tomoyuki Sugano COL · ’89	84	0.4	−0.1	Free agent

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Four-seam 29%

43% zone

Slider 21%

40% zone

Cutter 19%

48% zone

Changeup 16%

19% zone

Sinker 15%

48% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 1.1 WAR Arbitration $2.3M*

2028 1.0 WAR Arbitration $4.5M*

2029 0.9 WAR Arbitration $7.0M*

2030 0.7 WAR Free agent

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2025AAA	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	26	3	12.1 IP	12.1 IP · 8.76 ERA · 27.1% K · 10.2% BB