Players / Player profile
HOU · CF

Brice Matthews

Age 24 B/T R/R 5′10″, 190 lb USA MLB debut 2025
40-man FV 40+ · #7 in org
  • Houston’s roster as it stands part-time CF · 323 PA (CF 323) · 0.7 WAR in the role
  • Injured list 2026: Left knee inflammation (Sep 23–Sep 28)
xwOBA .263 wOBA .275
2026 fWAR 0.2
Projected 2027 WAR 0.6 at 321 PA · 0.7 in his 2027 role

Hitting · 2026

233 PA: percentiles need 300+, so values only

xwOBA .263 xwOBA: .263
Swing decisions +1.21 Swing decisions: +1.21
Contact value −1.86 Contact value: −1.86
Bat speed 72.8 Bat speed: 72.8
Squared-up / swing 17% Squared-up / swing: 17%
Blasts / swing 6% Blasts / swing: 6%
EV90 104.9 EV90: 104.9
Barrel % 8.5% Barrel %: 8.5%
Chase % 25.5% Chase %: 25.5%
Zone contact 74.6% Zone contact: 74.6%
Strikeout % 31.8% Strikeout %: 31.8%
Walk % 6.9% Walk %: 6.9%

Platoon splits · swing path

By pitcher handedness

vsPAwOBAxwOBAK%BB%ChaseDecisionsContact
LHP85.277.26333%5%21%+2.23−1.80
RHP148.273.26331%8%28%+0.55−1.86
Attack angle
13.7° (53% in 5–20°)
Attack direction
+1.6°
Swing length
7.3 ft
Fast-swing rate
27%
Pull-air %
11.3%
Hard-hit %
36.6%
Slash · wRC+
.201/.255/.332 · 64

Zone map · 2026

Where he does damage, and where to pitch him

+0.10.0−0.6+0.5+0.1−0.3−1.7−1.2−1.8+0.2−0.7−2.0−1.4−4.9−1.5−0.6+5.9−0.7−1.4+0.4+0.8−1.6−1.60.0−1.3RHB

Does the most damage down and in (+5.9 vs. league per 100; 2.5 standard errors on 40 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).

Weakest middle-away (−4.9; 2.1 standard errors below average on 44 pitches). Pitchers should attack here.

Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average RHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 868 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).

Most similar hitters

Swings like Matthews: bat path, contact quality and approach

SimilarityPlayerxwOBA’26 WAR’27 proj2027
55Carlos Narváez BAL · ’98.267−0.60.8Pre-arb
55Christian Yelich MIL · ’91.3100.10.6Signed $26.0M
51Zack Gelof ATH · ’99.3242.71.5Arb
51Marcell Ozuna FA · ’90.304−1.00.2Free agent
44Colton Cowser BAL · ’00.3162.12.0Arb

Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.

Fielding

2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.

2027 rating by position · best fit first, on the total with the position’s worth
CF +3.3 +5.8
2B +2.0 +1.5
LF +6.9 −3.6
RF +6.3prior −4.2
Outs Above Average by position
SeasonPosOAARangeArm, DPRunsBatters
20263B−1−10.0−1.038
20262B+2+1+0.1+1.1458
2026LF+1+1+0.2+1.2626
2026CF+4+3+0.4+3.41,207
20253B000.00.06
20252B00−0.4−0.4459

Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.

Range by direction (OAA at CF)
2026 · CF In (charging) −1Back +1Toward 3B line +2Toward 1B line +4vs. RHH +2vs. LHH +4
Tools (percentile; arm among CFs)
Arm at CF 88.1 mph · 63rd
Sprint speed 28.6 ft/s · 83rd
Reaction +0.8 ft · 74th
Burst +0.7 ft · 70th
Route +0.3 ft · 66th
Catch difficulty (latest season)
PlayMadeChancesRate
★★★★★060%
★★★★3475%
★★★4580%
★★88100%
★1313100%
Zone rating (Keystone expected outs)
SeasonZoneBallsOuts vs. exp.
2026LF58+2.7
2026CF128−1.2

The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.

Compare in the Fielding Lab →

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 0.6 WAR —
2028 0.6 WAR —
2029 0.6 WAR —
2030 0.6 WAR —

Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevelLevelTeamAgeGPA / IPPA / IP ·Line
2026AAAAAASugar Land Space Cowboys24729 PA 29 PA · .042/.138/.042 · 0 HR · 41.4% K · 10.3% BB
2025AAAAAASugar Land Space Cowboys23112498 PA 498 PA · .260/.371/.458 · 17 HR · 27.9% K · 14.1% BB

FanGraphs: FV 40+ · ETA 2026. Public pitch tracking exists only at Triple-A and some Florida State League parks.

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As batter 0% 0/2 won · −0.2 runs
Keystone is an independent portfolio project. It is not affiliated with Major League Baseball or any club. Data: MLB Stats API, Baseball Savant, FanGraphs. Used under their terms for individual, non-commercial use.