NYY · P

David Bednar

Age 32 B/T L/R 6′1″, 250 lb USA MLB debut 2019

40-man

Free agent est. 2 yr × $16.9M ($12M–$26M) · +0.9 wins to Pittsburgh’s Winter Plan in the bullpen
1 caution
- Priced beyond last winter's market: his projection (1.23 WAR) is above any reliever signed then (1.21), so the price extrapolates the model's curve and is less certain.

Keystone Stuff 106 75th pct

2026 fWAR 1.9

Projected 2027 WAR 1.2 Keystone Marcel+ at 71 IP

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 1,154 pitches

Keystone Stuff 106

Keystone Location 105

Keystone Pitching 104

Run value (xRV) +1.32

Strikeout % 27.1%

Walk % 7.1%

Whiff % 30.8%

Chase % 38.5%

Fastball velo 96.1

Extension 6.5 ft

69.1 IP2.47 ERA2.61 FIP 40° arm35 SV

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

RHP · arm angle 40° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Splitter41% use	41%	90.8	3.3	+8.9	108	106	35%	+2.43
Four-seam41% use	41%	96.1	18.0	+8.8	104	98	23%	+0.72
Curveball18% use	18%	77.0	−6.5	−7.7	94	107	39%	+0.14

Pitch idea (fragile)

Built from his own fastball (96.1 mph) plus the typical shape 25 pitchers with his slot (40°) throw: a sweeper around 84.2 mph, 4.1″ rise, −12.6″ arm-side. On the same model it grades +27 against his curveball, the pitch with the same job (+20 to +31 across the production and three cross-fit models), about 121 on his curveball’s scale; the comps’ own sweepers grade 108 at the median, so that sits above 96% of them. That would out-grade 96% of the comps’ real pitches, more likely a result of how the pitch was built than of the pitch, so it isn’t queued.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Bednar: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
40	Drew Anderson DET · ’94	101	0.7	0.3	Free agent
32	Kyle Finnegan DET · ’91	106	−0.8	0.0	Signed $8.0M
31	Chase Silseth TEX · ’00	98	0.4	0.3	Pre-arb
29	Luis Medina ATH · ’99	103	0.9	0.6	Arb
29	Kodai Senga NYM · ’93	98	−0.6	0.1	Signed $14.0M

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Splitter 44%

32% zone

Four-seam 38%

44% zone

Curveball 18%

48% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 1.2 WAR Free agent

2028 1.1 WAR Free agent

2029 0.8 WAR Free agent

2030 0.6 WAR Free agent

A pending free agent: no club controls his 2027. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2025AAA	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	30	5	5 IP	5 IP · 0.00 ERA · 43.8% K · 0.0% BB