SEA · RF

Luke Raley

Age 32 B/T L/R 6′3″, 235 lb USA MLB debut 2021

40-man

Seattle’s roster as it stands on the 40-man, off the 26-man (call-up depth)
Injured list Ended 2026 on the 60-day IL: Left forearm strain (since Aug 1)
Trade read Available at a price: SEA 47% playoff odds; control through 2028.

xwOBA .343 wOBA .321

2026 fWAR 0.3

Projected 2027 WAR 0.5 Keystone Marcel+ at 365 PA

Hitting · 2026

286 PA: percentiles need 300+, so values only

xwOBA .343

Swing decisions −0.01

Contact value +0.84

Bat speed 75.2

Squared-up / swing 17%

Blasts / swing 9%

EV90 105.5

Barrel % 15.7%

Chase % 34.6%

Zone contact 71.7%

Strikeout % 32.5%

Walk % 4.9%

Platoon splits · swing path

By pitcher handedness

vs	PA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Chase	Decisions	Contact
LHP	27	.186	.307	30%	0%	40%	−1.91	+1.22
RHP	259	.335	.346	33%	5%	34%	+0.14	+0.74

Attack angle: 14.8° (59% in 5–20°)
Attack direction: −3.5°
Swing length: 7.3 ft
Fast-swing rate: 51%
Pull-air %: 27.3%
Hard-hit %: 47.1%
Slash · wRC+: .225/.284/.439 · 106

Zone map · 2026

Where he does damage, and where to pitch him

Does the most damage up and away (+3.9 vs. league per 100; 1.7 standard errors on 47 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).

Weakest down and away (−1.1), but only 0.5 standard errors from average on 75 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.

Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average LHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 993 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).

Most similar hitters

Swings like Raley: bat path, contact quality and approach

Similarity	Player	xwOBA	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
53	Hunter Goodman COL · ’99	.324	2.5	2.0	Arb
49	Jose Siri LAA · ’95	.307	0.6	0.5	Arb
44	Kyle Stowers MIA · ’98	.329	1.6	1.8	Arb
41	Owen Caissie MIA · ’02	.301	−0.5	0.1	Pre-arb
40	Brandon Lowe PIT · ’94	.331	4.9	2.5	Free agent

Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.

Fielding

2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.

2027 rating by position · best fit first, on the total with the position’s worth

RF −3.9 −11.4

CF −15.8 −16.3

LF −7.3 −17.8

1B −2.7 −18.2

Outs Above Average by position

Season	Pos	OAA	Range	Arm, DP	Runs	Batters
2026	LF	−2	−2	−0.1	−2.1	100
2026	CF	−1	−1	−0.1	−1.1	228
2026	RF	−3	−3	−1.3	−4.3	2,191
2025	LF	0	0	0.0	0.0	39
2025	CF	0	0	0.0	0.0	131
2025	RF	0	0	+0.1	+0.1	867
2025	1B	−2	−1	+0.7	−0.3	867
2024	CF	0	0	0.0	0.0	207
2024	RF	−2	−2	+0.1	−1.9	908
2024	1B	−2	−2	+2.4	+0.4	1,094
2024	LF	−1	−1	+0.2	−0.8	1,717
2023	CF	−1	−1	+0.1	−0.9	314
2023	LF	−1	0	+0.1	+0.1	583
2023	1B	+2	+1	+0.8	+1.8	982
2023	RF	−1	−1	+0.3	−0.8	1,189

Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.

Range by direction (OAA at RF)

2026 · RF In (charging) −1Back 0Toward 3B line −5Toward 1B line −1vs. RHH −4vs. LHH −2

At RF in 2026, the biggest loss came toward 3B line (−5 outs): a coaching target.

Tools (percentile; arm among RFs)

Arm at RF 89.0 mph · 57th

Sprint speed 28.6 ft/s · 83rd

Reaction −0.9 ft · 20th

Burst −1.1 ft · 17th

Route +0.3 ft · 66th

Catch difficulty (latest season)

Play	Made	Chances	Rate
★★★★★	1	19	5%
★★★★	0	3	0%
★★★	0	3	0%
★★	2	6	33%
★	21	22	95%

Zone rating (Keystone expected outs)

Season	Zone	Balls	Outs vs. exp.
2026	RF	192	+0.6
2025	RF	66	−0.2
2025	1B	52	−0.8
2024	RF	83	+1.9
2024	LF	159	+2.2
2024	1B	73	−4.8

The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.

Compare in the Fielding Lab →

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 0.5 WAR Arbitration $2.9M*

2028 0.1 WAR Arbitration $4.6M*

2029 −0.4 WAR Free agent

2030 −0.8 WAR Free agent

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2025AAA	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	30	9	38 PA	38 PA · .314/.368/.600 · 3 HR · 31.6% K · 5.3% BB

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As batter 60% 3/5 won · −0.3 runs