Jonathan Aranda
- Tampa Bay’s roster as it stands starts at 1B · 565 PA · 2.4 WAR in the role
- Trade read Available at a price: TB 36% playoff odds; control through 2029.
Hitting · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB hitters with 300+ PA · 663 PA
Platoon splits · swing path
By pitcher handedness
| vs | PA | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Chase | Decisions | Contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LHP | 188 | .311 | .315 | 27% | 11% | 25% | +0.96 | +0.67 |
| RHP | 475 | .368 | .353 | 23% | 10% | 31% | −0.04 | +1.85 |
- Attack angle
- 8.3° (53% in 5–20°)
- Attack direction
- +5.1°
- Swing length
- 7.1 ft
- Fast-swing rate
- 12%
- Pull-air %
- 17.2%
- Hard-hit %
- 45.9%
- Slash · wRC+
- .274/.358/.434 · 123
Zone map · 2026
Where he does damage, and where to pitch him
Does the most damage down over the middle (+3.9 vs. league per 100; 1.9 standard errors on 118 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).
Weakest up and in (−4.5), but only 2.1 standard errors from average on 90 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.
Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average LHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 2,444 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).
Most similar hitters
Swings like Aranda: bat path, contact quality and approach
| Similarity | Player | xwOBA | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | Hao-Yu Lee DET · ’03 | .303 | 0.5 | 0.8 | Pre-arb |
| 67 | Randy Arozarena SEA · ’95 | .350 | 5.5 | 2.6 | Free agent |
| 66 | Freddie Freeman LAD · ’89 | .364 | 2.6 | 1.2 | Signed $27.0M |
| 63 | Brandon Nimmo TEX · ’93 | .340 | 1.7 | 1.1 | Signed $20.5M |
| 61 | Joc Pederson TEX · ’92 | .344 | 1.4 | 0.4 | Free agent |
Randy Arozarena (similarity 67, 2.6 WAR projected for 2027) is a free agent this winter: a similar swing available without trading talent, at a free agent’s price. Opportunity Finder →
Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.
Fielding
2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.
| Season | Pos | OAA | Range | Arm, DP | Runs | Batters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1B | +4 | +3 | −0.7 | +2.3 | 5,261 |
| 2025 | 1B | +1 | +1 | +2.4 | +3.4 | 3,194 |
| 2024 | 2B | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 164 |
| 2024 | 1B | +1 | +1 | +1.2 | +2.2 | 722 |
| 2023 | 3B | −1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 63 |
| 2023 | 2B | +1 | 0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | 82 |
| 2023 | 1B | −1 | −1 | +0.5 | −0.5 | 328 |
Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.
At 1B in 2026, the biggest loss came in (charging) (−2 outs): a coaching target.
Tools (percentile; arm among 1Bs)| Season | Zone | Balls | Outs vs. exp. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1B | 351 | +4.8 |
| 2025 | 1B | 212 | +3.4 |
| 2024 | 1B | 42 | +0.4 |
The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →
ABS challenges · 2026
Baseball Savant