Players / Player profile
TOR · 1B

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Age 27 B/T R/R 6′0″, 245 lb Canada MLB debut 2019
40-man
  • Toronto’s roster as it stands starts at 1B · 561 PA · 2.4 WAR in the role
  • Injured list 2026: Concussion (Aug 15–Aug 22)
  • Trade read Unlikely to be traded: A franchise player: with TOR every season since at least 2022 (MLB debut 2019) and still a 2.4-WAR projection.
xwOBA .331 wOBA .312
2026 fWAR 1.0
Projected 2027 WAR 2.4 at 573 PA · 2.4 in his 2027 role

Hitting · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB hitters with 300+ PA · 605 PA

xwOBA .331 xwOBA: .331, 63rd percentile
Swing decisions +0.21 Swing decisions: +0.21, 55th percentile
Contact value +0.49 Contact value: +0.49, 63rd percentile
Bat speed 76.4 Bat speed: 76.4, 94th percentile
Squared-up / swing 23% Squared-up / swing: 23%, 60th percentile
Blasts / swing 14% Blasts / swing: 14%, 98th percentile
EV90 108.5 EV90: 108.5, 94th percentile
Barrel % 6.9% Barrel %: 6.9%, 41st percentile
Chase % 30.6% Chase %: 30.6%, 43rd percentile
Zone contact 86.9% Zone contact: 86.9%, 68th percentile
Strikeout % 13.4% Strikeout %: 13.4%, 91st percentile
Walk % 8.4% Walk %: 8.4%, 46th percentile

Platoon splits · swing path

By pitcher handedness

vsPAwOBAxwOBAK%BB%ChaseDecisionsContact
LHP154.356.37314%13%27%+0.69+1.67
RHP451.297.31613%7%32%+0.02+0.06
Attack angle
1.2° (31% in 5–20°)
Attack direction
−3.9°
Swing length
7.6 ft
Fast-swing rate
57%
Pull-air %
11.3%
Hard-hit %
44.3%
Slash · wRC+
.260/.332/.356 · 95

Zone map · 2026

Where he does damage, and where to pitch him

+0.3−1.4+0.4−0.6−0.4−3.0−3.2−3.1+0.2+1.1+1.5−0.1−2.7−0.3−0.2+3.6+2.7−1.2−0.6−0.4+0.2+1.6+0.8+0.4+1.0RHB

Does the most damage down and in (+2.7 vs. league per 100; 1.2 standard errors on 74 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).

Weakest up and in (−3.2), but only 1.4 standard errors from average on 77 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.

Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average RHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 1,973 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).

Most similar hitters

Swings like Guerrero: bat path, contact quality and approach

SimilarityPlayerxwOBA’26 WAR’27 proj2027
57Yandy Díaz TB · ’91.3472.51.1Vesting option $13.0M
42Fernando Tatis Jr. SD · ’99.3795.44.6Signed $25.7M
42Bobby Witt Jr. KC · ’00.3817.06.6Signed $19.7M
34William Contreras MIL · ’97.3343.03.0Club option $14.5M
34Ketel Marte AZ · ’93.3482.53.1Signed $12.0M

Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.

Fielding

2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.

2027 rating by position · best fit first, on the total with the position’s worth
1B −0.3 −12.8
3B −16.4 −16.9
Outs Above Average by position
SeasonPosOAARangeArm, DPRunsBatters
20261B+6+4+1.7+5.74,670
20251B−2−2−0.1−2.14,787
20243B+10+0.1+0.1437
20241B−9−7−0.9−7.94,378
20231B−14−10−2.7−12.74,501

Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.

Range by direction (OAA at 1B)
2025 · 1B2026 · 1B In (charging) −4−1Back 0+1Toward 3B line −2−1Toward 1B line +4+6vs. RHH +20vs. LHH −4+6
Tools (percentile; arm among 1Bs)
Arm at 1B 79.3 mph · 73rd
Sprint speed 26.4 ft/s · 26th
Zone rating (Keystone expected outs)
SeasonZoneBallsOuts vs. exp.
20261B318−2.0
20251B286+4.5
20241B263+1.1

The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.

Compare in the Fielding Lab →

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 2.4 WAR Guaranteed $40.2M
2028 2.1 WAR Guaranteed $39.2M
2029 1.8 WAR Guaranteed $38.2M
2030 1.3 WAR Guaranteed $37.7M

Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevelLevelTeamAgeGPA / IPPA / IP ·Line
2026AADunedin Blue Jays2713 PA 3 PA · 1.000/1.000/2.000 · 0 HR · 0.0% K · 66.7% BB

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As batter 45% 9/20 won · +0.3 runs
Keystone is an independent portfolio project. It is not affiliated with Major League Baseball or any club. Data: MLB Stats API, Baseball Savant, FanGraphs. Used under their terms for individual, non-commercial use.